Tom Posted April 3, 2017 Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 A powerful spring storm is poised to develop and track from the southern Plains up towards the lower Lakes mid week. Quite the interesting storm system which will have heavy rains, very strong winds and possible snow??? It's been a wild and wet Spring so far and mother nature is not lacking in the storm department. Let's discuss.. 06z NAM.... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017040306/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017040306/namconus_apcpn_ncus_28.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 00z GFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017040300/gfs_apcpn_ncus_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 LOT's take: They are even indicating Lake Effect snow for NW IN! What the heck? Interestingly, as cold air aloft filters over the region Wednesdaynight, expecting rain to transition over to snow. 850mb temps arebelow freezing and there is enough forcing aloft to suggestmoderate, measurable snow is possible. Have medium-high confidencein snow occurring so kept a period of snow in the forecast Wednesdaynight, which may result in at least a few tenths of snow. Stickingsnow all depends on snowfall rates given wet, warm ground. If snowcomes down harder than forecast, accumulations could be greater thanforecast.Gusty winds continue Thursday with gusts of 30-40 MPH. With sucha cool pool aloft, lowered Thursday`s high temps into the low 40susing a mixture of CONSRaw and local 925mb climatology. Have highconfidence in temps being cooler than what SuperBlend had loadedin. Surface temps and forcing will play a key role in what type ofprecip falls Thursday. Right now have snow becoming rain assurface temps warm. Snow may continue longer than forecast ifforcing creates snowfall rates so high that snow may overcome thesurface warm layer. However, this far out, decided to play it safeand have snow turn over to rain with minimal accumulations.Lows Thursday night still look chilly in the low 30s. The synopticprecip will shift east Thursday night but models are suggesting thata lake effect snow band may form over NW IN which makes sense givenstrong north winds along the long fetch of the lake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 12z NAM... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017040312/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017040312/084/qpf_acc.us_mw.png Holy winds! 12z NAM suggesting 50-60mph winds down the lake on Thursday! Only if this would have been a storm during the winter. Would have been a blockbuster blizzard! I'd imagine with the wind and snow falling, there are going to be some power outages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted April 3, 2017 Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 LMAO. Okay NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted April 3, 2017 Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 It's going to happen, I'll be putting my snowmobile into storage tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 12z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017040312/096/snku_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017040312/096/qpf_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 3, 2017 Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 3, 2017 Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 Holy winds! 12z NAM suggesting 50-60mph winds down the lake on Thursday! Only if this would have been a storm during the winter. Would have been a blockbuster blizzard! Instead, we get... This IS winter 2017 in a nutshell. And screw the winds, I've spent hours cleaning up the massive pile of sticks & broken limbs "pruned" by Ma Nature's last windy tantrum a few weeks ago. [insert arrow-thru-head emoticon here] Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 Instead, we get... 20170403 SNELT.PNG This IS winter 2017 in a nutshell. And screw the winds, I've spent hours cleaning up the massive pile of sticks & broken limbs "pruned" by Ma Nature's last windy tantrum a few weeks ago. [insert arrow-thru-head emoticon here]More wood for the fire pit! Gotta find a silver lining somehow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 3, 2017 Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 EURO on board with this potent system. NAM spitting out quite a bit of snow past couple runs but most likely overdone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Instead, we get... 20170403 SNELT.PNG This IS winter 2017 in a nutshell. And screw the winds, I've spent hours cleaning up the massive pile of sticks & broken limbs "pruned" by Ma Nature's last windy tantrum a few weeks ago. [insert arrow-thru-head emoticon here]Figures, I've been doing cleanups since last week, looks like I may be doing those over now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Mke talking potential for several inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Yowsers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 NAM really has a nice defo band with 30-35 DBZ and 40 mph winds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Ummmmm.....if this verifies April snowfall records will be shattered. Meanwhile I'm fertilizing my lawn here in St Paul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Ummmmm.....if this verifies April snowfall records will be shattered. Meanwhile I'm fertilizing my lawn here in St Paul.That is like the perfect track! Looks like things may get a bit dicy if those heavier snow fall rates verify. How many times this spring have we seen these type of cutters?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 NAM has not backed down and continues to bring these crazy totals. With a negative tilted storm I'm sure there will be some very healthy returns so I could see where a few inches would not be out of the question. It will all come down to when the transition occurs. Slow mover so could see some nice lollipops. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 NAM has not backed down and continues to bring these crazy totals. With a negative tilted storm I'm sure there will be some very healthy returns so I could see where a few inches would not be out of the question. It will all come down to when the transition occurs. Slow mover so could see some nice lollipops. The only problem I see is how warm/wet the ground is. A lot of this falls at night so that will prob help. Nonetheless, this is a sweet looking storm that is coming together. Thursday morning may feature a snow globe with snow pasted onto everything facing NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 The only problem I see is how warm/wet the ground is. A lot of this falls at night so that will prob help. Nonetheless, this is a sweet looking storm that is coming together. Thursday morning may feature a snow globe with snow pasted onto everything facing NE.Heavy rates can overcome a warm ground but I know what you mean. Looks like there could be some heavy rates of hail or sleet so this might help cool the ground faster than normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Not sure about this but any thoughts of maybe some thundersnow with this setup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Not sure about this but any thoughts of maybe some thundersnow with this setup?Ya, dynamics are in place and it looks like the higher rez NAM is almost showing a trowel feature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017040412/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017040412/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Looks like each model has it's own version of what's going to happen. I will have to lean with the lesser amounts at this point as changeover will be the key as well as dynamics of this system. Track itself is very favorable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Looks like each model has it's own version of what's going to happen. I will have to lean with the lesser amounts at this point as changeover will be the key as well as dynamics of this system. Track itself is very favorable. Ya NAM is by far the coldest model getting temps down to the 32-33 range. Rest of the models today are quite a bit warmer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 gosaints riding the warm train Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 gosaints riding the warm trainDont have a train to ride it doesnt effect me. Just saying what the morning models had. Euro was the same as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 18z NAM 3km... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040418/nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040418/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png 18z NAM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017040418/namconus_asnow_ncus_25.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017040418/namconus_apcpn_ncus_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 The radar is going to look pretty tomorrow into Thursday...SREF's mean for ORD is close to 3"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Early tomorrow morning could be interesting around here as dynamic cooling could takeover and could see a couple hours of heavy snow before it transitions back to rain and then again back to snow tomorrow evening into Thursday. Tough forecast but will be fun to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 I'm not going to post but a very informative write up by LOT this evening regarding how complicated and dynamic this system is. Good read if you have the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Early tomorrow morning could be interesting around here as dynamic cooling could takeover and could see a couple hours of heavy snow before it transitions back to rain and then again back to snow tomorrow evening into Thursday. Tough forecast but will be fun to follow. Ya, no doubt. Should be interesting to see the dynamics come into play. Man, you just wish this storm would have hit in December when the cold air was around! It's really the best track for chitown. The waves will be rocking on Thursday! Surfing anyone??? 14+ foot waves...they are comparing this event to the Halloween howler back in '14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 High Wind Watch...likely be re-issued into a warning tomorrow... High Wind WatchURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Chicago IL321 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017...High Wind Watch Late Wednesday Night through Thursday....A deepening low pressure system will move through the regionmid week...and is expected to produce a period of very strongnortherly winds across the area. Sustained winds around 40 mphand gusts approaching 60 mph will be possible from late Wednesdaynight through much of the day Thursday before winds slowlydiminish Thursday night. Highest winds are expected to occur nearthe Lake Michigan shore...where there is no terrain to block orslow these strong winds.ILZ006-014-050430-/O.NEW.KLOT.HW.A.0001.170406T0600Z-170406T2100Z/Lake IL-Cook-Including the cities of Waukegan and Chicago321 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON...The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a High WindWatch, which is in effect from late Wednesday night throughThursday afternoon.* TIMING...Midnight Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.* WINDS...Sustained north winds of 40 mph with gusts as high as 60mph...especially near Lake Michigan.* IMPACTS...Damage to trees...power lines and personal propertyare possible with winds of this magnitude. Driving may be madedifficult for high profile vehicles. High waves along the LakeMichigan shore may cause lakeshore flooding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 This storm is blossoming and looking very healthy already on satellite imagery... http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv/10.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Its gonna be a bit raw tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 Skilling saying 20-25 Foot waves...wowzers! http://wgntv.com/2017/04/04/60-mile-per-hour-winds-drive-15-to-20-plus-foot-wavesstorm-warning-southern-half-of-lake-michigan-thursday-high-wind-watch-and-lakeshore-flooding-watch-for-illinoisindiana-countie/' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 More wood for the fire pit! Gotta find a silver lining somehow.No burning in little antique Marshall, so no bueno. Nice thought though. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 GRR's Winter Storm Watch is short but dramatic. In a nutshell "batten the hatches" by April standards. Ofc one of the best storms of my life was April 1-2 1975, which also brought Chicago to a standstill even though it fell during the day in Chi-town. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 Nice looking radar. Looks like a classic winter storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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