4/5 - 4/6 Powerful April Spring Storm

[Tom]

A powerful spring storm is poised to develop and track from the southern Plains up towards the lower Lakes mid week.  Quite the interesting storm system which will have heavy rains, very strong winds and possible snow???  It's been a wild and wet Spring so far and mother nature is not lacking in the storm department.

 

 

Let's discuss..

 

 

06z NAM....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017040306/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017040306/namconus_apcpn_ncus_28.png

 

 

[Tom]

00z GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017040300/gfs_apcpn_ncus_17.png

[Tom]

LOT's take:  They are even indicating Lake Effect snow for NW IN!  What the heck?

 

 

 

Interestingly, as cold air aloft filters over the region Wednesday
night, expecting rain to transition over to snow. 850mb temps are
below freezing and there is enough forcing aloft to suggest
moderate, measurable snow is possible. Have medium-high confidence
in snow occurring so kept a period of snow in the forecast Wednesday
night, which may result in at least a few tenths of snow. Sticking
snow all depends on snowfall rates given wet, warm ground. If snow
comes down harder than forecast, accumulations could be greater than
forecast.

Gusty winds continue Thursday with gusts of 30-40 MPH. With such
a cool pool aloft, lowered Thursday`s high temps into the low 40s
using a mixture of CONSRaw and local 925mb climatology. Have high
confidence in temps being cooler than what SuperBlend had loaded
in. Surface temps and forcing will play a key role in what type of
precip falls Thursday. Right now have snow becoming rain as
surface temps warm. Snow may continue longer than forecast if
forcing creates snowfall rates so high that snow may overcome the
surface warm layer. However, this far out, decided to play it safe
and have snow turn over to rain with minimal accumulations.

Lows Thursday night still look chilly in the low 30s. The synoptic
precip will shift east Thursday night but models are suggesting that
a lake effect snow band may form over NW IN which makes sense given
strong north winds along the long fetch of the lake.

 

[Tom]

12z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017040312/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017040312/084/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

Holy winds!  12z NAM suggesting 50-60mph winds down the lake on Thursday!  Only if this would have been a storm during the winter.  Would have been a blockbuster blizzard!

 

I'd imagine with the wind and snow falling, there are going to be some power outages.

[WBadgersW]

LMAO. Okay NAM

[gimmesnow]

It's going to happen, I'll be putting my snowmobile into storage tomorrow.

[Tom]

12z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017040312/096/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017040312/096/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[Niko]

[jaster220]

 

Holy winds!  12z NAM suggesting 50-60mph winds down the lake on Thursday!  Only if this would have been a storm during the winter.  Would have been a blockbuster blizzard!

 

Instead, we get...

 

 

 

This IS winter 2017 in a nutshell. And screw the winds, I've spent hours cleaning up the massive pile of sticks & broken limbs "pruned" by Ma Nature's last windy tantrum a few weeks ago.

 

[insert arrow-thru-head emoticon here]

[Tom]

Instead, we get...

 

20170403 SNELT.PNG

 

This IS winter 2017 in a nutshell. And screw the winds, I've spent hours cleaning up the massive pile of sticks & broken limbs "pruned" by Ma Nature's last windy tantrum a few weeks ago.

 

[insert arrow-thru-head emoticon here]

More wood for the fire pit! Gotta find a silver lining somehow.

[Tony]

EURO on board with this potent system. NAM spitting out quite a bit of snow past couple runs but most likely overdone.

[earthandturf]

Instead, we get...

 

20170403 SNELT.PNG

 

This IS winter 2017 in a nutshell. And screw the winds, I've spent hours cleaning up the massive pile of sticks & broken limbs "pruned" by Ma Nature's last windy tantrum a few weeks ago.

 

[insert arrow-thru-head emoticon here]

Figures, I've been doing cleanups since last week, looks like I may be doing those over now.

[Madtown]

Mke talking potential for several inches

[Yerf]

Yowsers

[Money]

NAM really has a nice defo band with 30-35 DBZ and 40 mph winds

[St Paul Storm]

Ummmmm.....if this verifies April snowfall records will be shattered. Meanwhile I'm fertilizing my lawn here in St Paul.

[Tom]

Ummmmm.....if this verifies April snowfall records will be shattered. Meanwhile I'm fertilizing my lawn here in St Paul.

That is like the perfect track!  Looks like things may get a bit dicy if those heavier snow fall rates verify.  How many times this spring have we seen these type of cutters?!

[Tony]

NAM has not backed down and continues to bring these crazy totals. With a negative tilted storm I'm sure there will be some very healthy returns so I could see where a few inches would not be out of the question. It will all come down to when the transition occurs. Slow mover so could see some nice lollipops.  

[Tom]

NAM has not backed down and continues to bring these crazy totals. With a negative tilted storm I'm sure there will be some very healthy returns so I could see where a few inches would not be out of the question. It will all come down to when the transition occurs. Slow mover so could see some nice lollipops.  

The only problem I see is how warm/wet the ground is.  A lot of this falls at night so that will prob help.  Nonetheless, this is a sweet looking storm that is coming together.  Thursday morning may feature a snow globe with snow pasted onto everything facing NE.

[Tony]

The only problem I see is how warm/wet the ground is.  A lot of this falls at night so that will prob help.  Nonetheless, this is a sweet looking storm that is coming together.  Thursday morning may feature a snow globe with snow pasted onto everything facing NE.

Heavy rates can overcome a warm ground but I know what you mean. Looks like there could be some heavy rates of hail or sleet so this might help cool the ground faster than normal.

[Tony]

Not sure about this but any thoughts of maybe some thundersnow with this setup?

[Tom]

Not sure about this but any thoughts of maybe some thundersnow with this setup?

Ya, dynamics are in place and it looks like the higher rez NAM is almost showing a trowel feature.

[gosaints]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017040412/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gosaints]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017040412/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tony]

Looks like each model has it's own version of what's going to happen. I will have to lean with the lesser amounts at this point as changeover will be the key as well as dynamics of this system. Track itself is very favorable.  

[gosaints]

Looks like each model has it's own version of what's going to happen. I will have to lean with the lesser amounts at this point as changeover will be the key as well as dynamics of this system. Track itself is very favorable.  

Ya NAM is by far the coldest model getting temps down to the 32-33 range.  Rest of the models today are quite a bit warmer

[Money]

gosaints riding the warm train

[gosaints]

gosaints riding the warm train

Dont have a train to ride it doesnt effect me.  Just saying what the morning models had.  Euro was the same as well.  

[Tom]

18z NAM 3km...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040418/nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040418/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

 

18z NAM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017040418/namconus_asnow_ncus_25.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017040418/namconus_apcpn_ncus_24.png

[Tom]

The radar is going to look pretty tomorrow into Thursday...SREF's mean for ORD is close to 3"...

[Tony]

Early tomorrow morning could be interesting around here as dynamic cooling could takeover and could see a couple hours of heavy snow before it transitions back to rain and then again back to snow tomorrow evening into Thursday. Tough forecast but will be fun to follow. 

[Tony]

I'm not going to post but a very informative write up by LOT this evening regarding how complicated and dynamic this system is. Good read if you have the time.

[Tom]

Early tomorrow morning could be interesting around here as dynamic cooling could takeover and could see a couple hours of heavy snow before it transitions back to rain and then again back to snow tomorrow evening into Thursday. Tough forecast but will be fun to follow. 

Ya, no doubt.  Should be interesting to see the dynamics come into play.  Man, you just wish this storm would have hit in December when the cold air was around!  It's really the best track for chitown.

 

The waves will be rocking on Thursday!  Surfing anyone???  14+ foot waves...they are comparing this event to the Halloween howler back in '14.

[Tom]

High Wind Watch...likely be re-issued into a warning tomorrow...

 

 

 

High Wind WatchURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
321 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...High Wind Watch Late Wednesday Night through Thursday...

.A deepening low pressure system will move through the region
mid week...and is expected to produce a period of very strong
northerly winds across the area. Sustained winds around 40 mph
and gusts approaching 60 mph will be possible from late Wednesday
night through much of the day Thursday before winds slowly
diminish Thursday night. Highest winds are expected to occur near
the Lake Michigan shore...where there is no terrain to block or
slow these strong winds.

ILZ006-014-050430-
/O.NEW.KLOT.HW.A.0001.170406T0600Z-170406T2100Z/
Lake IL-Cook-
Including the cities of Waukegan and Chicago
321 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from late Wednesday night through
Thursday afternoon.

* TIMING...Midnight Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

* WINDS...Sustained north winds of 40 mph with gusts as high as 60
mph...especially near Lake Michigan.

* IMPACTS...Damage to trees...power lines and personal property
are possible with winds of this magnitude. Driving may be made
difficult for high profile vehicles. High waves along the Lake
Michigan shore may cause lakeshore flooding.

[Tom]

This storm is blossoming and looking very healthy already on satellite imagery...

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv/10.jpg

[WBadgersW]

Its gonna be a bit raw tomorrow...

[Tom]

Skilling saying 20-25 Foot waves...wowzers!

 

http://wgntv.com/2017/04/04/60-mile-per-hour-winds-drive-15-to-20-plus-foot-wavesstorm-warning-southern-half-of-lake-michigan-thursday-high-wind-watch-and-lakeshore-flooding-watch-for-illinoisindiana-countie/'

[jaster220]

More wood for the fire pit! Gotta find a silver lining somehow.

No burning in little antique Marshall, so no bueno. Nice thought though.

[jaster220]

GRR's Winter Storm Watch is short but dramatic. In a nutshell "batten the hatches" by April standards. Ofc one of the best storms of my life was April 1-2 1975, which also brought Chicago to a standstill even though it fell during the day in Chi-town.

[james1976]

Nice looking radar. Looks like a classic winter storm.

[gosaints]

Thats gonna be some nasty cold rain

[jaster220]

Nice looking radar. Looks like a classic winter storm.

 

Yep, if only it were snow season..sigh.  I will at least concede that this morning was a wx first for me. On my way to work, the entire eastern sky was massively red to strong pink WHILE a rainbow formed ahead of me to the west. I've seen the extreme red sky in the morning, but never was precip already in the area (plus just enough sunlight to cause a bow). Pretty cool actually. We're riding the edge SN-wise this far south, but this indicates at least a period of snow flying down to the state line, so we'll see..

 

 

[westMJim]

GRR's Winter Storm Watch is short but dramatic. In a nutshell "batten the hatches" by April standards. Ofc one of the best storms of my life was April 1-2 1975, which also brought Chicago to a standstill even though it fell during the day in Chi-town.

I lived in Bay City in April 1975. The snow started there just after sun set. We had 14"+ of snow with thunderstorms around 10PM power went out. There was a 4' drift in my back yard. I don't expect this to be anywhere near that. for one its warmer this year. Lows were in the teens in the nights just before the 1975 storm and highs were only in the 30's and low 40's the high in Bay City on the 2nd was only 33° (the storm in Bay City was the night of the 2nd into the morning of the 3rd) but we shall see.

[westMJim]

Yep, if only it were snow season..sigh.  I will at least concede that this morning was a wx first for me. On my way to work, the entire eastern sky was massively red to strong pink WHILE a rainbow formed ahead of me to the west. I've seen the extreme red sky in the morning, but never was precip already in the area (plus just enough sunlight to cause a bow). Pretty cool actually. We're riding the edge SN-wise this far south, but this indicates at least a period of snow flying down to the state line, so we'll see..

 

20170405 I-cast GL's map 8pm 4-6.gif

Had the nice red sky to the east here (GR) but no rainbow. in fact still no rain here yet.

[jaster220]

Hidden on the CONUS map is a Storm Watch up for Huron which is pretty rare in itself..

 

 

[jaster220]

I lived in Bay City in April 1975. The snow started there just after sun set. We had 14"+ of snow with thunderstorms around 10PM power went out. There was a 4' drift in my back yard. I don't expect this to be anywhere near that. for one its warmer this year. Lows were in the teens in the nights just before the 1975 storm and highs were only in the 30's and low 40's the high in Bay City on the 2nd was only 33° (the storm in Bay City was the night of the 2nd into the morning of the 3rd) but we shall see.

 

I was a kid on Easter break (yeah, it was actually still called that back then). My dad took me to the cinema to see The Towering Inferno. That must've been the world record longest single film in Hollywood history (over 4 hrs run time). Went into the show prolly 7pm or so and not a flake in the air. Came out and there was ~4" and pounding massive 'chutes like 2+" per hour rates!

 

With my only source of wx news being nightly 6pm local news out of Flint (Channel 12 normally if I expected possible snow day during the winter).I wasn't even thinking snowstorm in April, so I would not have been tuned into the evening news - too busy outside playing with my buddies.

 

Was there any WSWatches issued do you recall?

[Tom]

E IA/N IL getting drenched in the defo band...looks like winds are starting to pick up as the storm takes a near perfect track for this defo band to pivot through the region.

[jaster220]

APX pulls trigger on a warning for NEMI. Seems they've been smacked-down several times this winter and last. Back on March 1st Rogers City got 20" and the entire county was officially "closed".  APX's first call is not to that level, but this might surprise someone up that way.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dtx&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

[Niko]

This from NOAA:

 

The thermodynamic profile will support a period of very
good snowfall rates once the change over occurs. Snowfall accumulations 2-6inches likely.

 

This is absurd. Its April for crying out loud.

[Tom]

Based on this reflectivity, looks like my place back home is getting hit hard...could be possible frozen precip higher up in the atmosphere..

 

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20170405.2229.gif