May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

If you have something to say just say it then. The passive agressive comments get old.

 

You will also notice that I very seldom, if ever, start the off topic discussion. Even with stuff that I have more of an interest in. When we started the fracking debacle I recommended we move it elsewhere within the first couple posts.

Okay.

[Phil]

Seems a bit early for this pronouncement?

Why do you say that? I'm referring to the daily NAO value, not the monthly mean.

[Front Ranger]

Its been beautiful there.

More often than your place, yep.

[Front Ranger]

Why do you say that? I'm referring to the daily NAO value, not the monthly mean.

Ah, gotcha.

 

Don't you think a monthly mean would be more meaningful analog-wise?

[TT-SEA]

More often than your place, yep.

 

Way more.  

[TT-SEA]

More often than your place, yep.

 

Ironically its partly sunny here now and cloudy in Seattle:

 

[Jesse]

Okay.

I'm gonna report this to mommy!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF fires the convection tomorrow afternoon in SW WA and then focuses the intense rain along the I-5 corridor and over the Puget Sound in the evening.   Actually seems to be west of Portland and my area until it shifts eastward early on Friday morning.

 

But Portland looks to be pounded between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. Friday morning:

 

[stuffradio]

Looks really wet in the Vancouver area this morning. Gonna be lots of stations receiving 1-2" or rain today. Poor stuffradio.

 

At least someone thinks about me.

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF fires the convection tomorrow afternoon in SW WA and then focuses the intense rain along the I-5 corridor and over the Puget Sound in the evening. Actually seems to be west of Portland and my area until it shifts eastward early on Friday morning.

What'd I tell ya, big guy?

[stuffradio]

I'm gonna report this to mommy!

I'm not your mommy, guy.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF fires the convection tomorrow afternoon in SW WA and then focuses the intense rain along the I-5 corridor and over the Puget Sound in the evening. Actually seems to be west of Portland and my area until it shifts eastward early on Friday morning.

 

But Portland looks to be pounded between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. Friday morning:

 

Wow. Looks pretty juicy right over the heart of Vancouver. Would be unusual as best storms generally fire off to the east a bit.

[Jesse]

I'm not your mommy, guy.

I'm not your guy, mommy.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF site updated their maps...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data03/scratch/render-atls14-98f536083ae965b31b0d04811be6f4c6-lWptbe.png

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public?time=2017050312,0,2017050312&projection=classical_north_america

[Jesse]

Test

What is Slack, if I may ask?

[James Jones]

Bright, sunny, and humid out there.

 

Inb4 Phil "60 degree dew wut u talkin bout bro???"

[Front Ranger]

Smaller. Don't like it.

 

That's what she...

[stuffradio]

What is Slack, if I may ask?

It's where a group of people gather around in a room, sit around and do nothing.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF fires the convection tomorrow afternoon in SW WA and then focuses the intense rain along the I-5 corridor and over the Puget Sound in the evening. Actually seems to be west of Portland and my area until it shifts eastward early on Friday morning.

 

But Portland looks to be pounded between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. Friday morning:

 

That has us at ground zero. I'm actually starting to get pretty excited about this potential thunderstorm outbreak.

[Jesse]

It's where a group of people gather around in a room, sit around and do nothing.

So here?

[TT-SEA]

That has us at ground zero. I'm actually starting to get pretty excited about this potential thunderstorm outbreak.

 

Just a reminder... that is actually early Friday morning and tomorrow afternoon or evening.

[Jesse]

Just a reminder... that is actually early Friday morning and tomorrow afternoon or evening.

I know. I read your post.

[Phil]

Ah, gotcha.

 

Don't you think a monthly mean would be more meaningful analog-wise?

The monthly mean will still be quite negative. Generally, these anomalous boreal spring excursions in the NAO occur under a fairly limited set of large scale boundary conditions, which are only present under particular system state.

 

So it's no coincidence that some of the best tropical forcing analogs (1995, 1993, 1980, 1951, etc) featured similar excursions in the boreal spring NAO.

[TT-SEA]

I know. I read your post.

Just want you to be well rested tomorrow so you can stay up.

[Phil]

Also, I made a mistake. It looks like the deepest -NAO reading recorded in May was back in 1995, on the 9th of the month.

[TT-SEA]

Also, I made a mistake. It looks like the deepest -NAO reading recorded in May was back in 1995, on the 9th of the month.

Sweet... I will take one order of summer 1995 please.

[Jesse]

Just want you to be well rested tomorrow so you can stay up.

Big physics test in the afternoon, so I'll be in celebration mode when that is over. But I'm glad to hear the storms will likely be firing later on. At least I won't be stuck inside during all the action.

[Phil]

Bright, sunny, and humid out there.

 

Inb4 Phil "60 degree dew wut u talkin bout bro???"

#fakehumidity

[Phil]

Sweet... I will take one order of summer 1995 please.

I could see a similar low frequency pattern to that year, though obviously timing and seasonality would be different.

[Jesse]

ECMWF site updated their maps...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data03/scratch/render-atls14-98f536083ae965b31b0d04811be6f4c6-lWptbe.png

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public?time=2017050312,0,2017050312&projection=classical_north_america

I don't know if I like it. Makes it a lot harder to see what's going on upstream of us, in the GOA/North Pacific.

 

They have Europe divided into like four or five maps though. Even Africa has a north and a south map. It would have been awesome if they had made a western US/North Pacific map. Must be all the overseas goodwill toward us lately that had them rethink that. Just make one map for us and call it 'Murica.

[Phil]

I don't know if I like it. Makes it a lot harder to see what's going on upstream of us, in the GOA/North Pacific.

 

They have Europe divided into like four or five maps though. Even Africa has a north and a south map. It would have been awesome if they had made a western US/North Pacific map. Must be all the overseas goodwill toward us lately that had them rethink that. Just make one map for us and call it 'Murica.

Frankly, I don't understand how anyone can obtain a firm grasp on the pattern progression without the entire NH included.

[Jesse]

Frankly, I don't understand how anyone can obtain a firm grasp on the pattern progression without the entire NH included.

Very true. It's all a matter of scale. But especially for us on the west coast, the North Pacific is of great importance, since that is the "source region" of ~90% of our WX.

[WeatherArchive]

Yeah, it's actually contributed to the net-reduction in US carbon emissions over the last 10-15 years. There are a number of reasons for this, but I've never understood why so many people bash it.

The media bashes it so the people will.  What the media bashes the people follow like fish on a hook. 

[ShawniganLake]

Big physics test in the afternoon, so I'll be in celebration mode when that is over. But I'm glad to hear the storms will likely be firing later on. At least I won't be stuck inside during all the action.

Out of curiosity, what type of physics? I always quite liked physics in school.

[Timmy Supercell]

I don't know if I like it. Makes it a lot harder to see what's going on upstream of us, in the GOA/North Pacific.

 

They have Europe divided into like four or five maps though. Even Africa has a north and a south map. It would have been awesome if they had made a western US/North Pacific map. Must be all the overseas goodwill toward us lately that had them rethink that. Just make one map for us and call it 'Murica.

 

I agree. Took one glance and don't like it.

[Jesse]

Out of curiosity, what type of physics? I always quite liked physics in school.

So far this quarter we have been learning about electric charge/fields. Point charges, field vectors, capacitors, electric flux, Gaussian geometry, etc. It's been extremely fascinating but also challenging.

 

I am currently on part III of a three quarter sequence, so almost done. Next test will be about magnetism/electromagnetism and the third will be on optics, from what I can tell.

[WeatherArchive]

12Z ECMWF fires the convection tomorrow afternoon in SW WA and then focuses the intense rain along the I-5 corridor and over the Puget Sound in the evening.   Actually seems to be west of Portland and my area until it shifts eastward early on Friday morning.

 

But Portland looks to be pounded between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. Friday morning:

 

Don't tell me the dry slot is Stayton to Salem?  That would be so irritating as usual that Salem gets nothing not even a single drop yet when SW gross flow happens Salem gets good totals..

[WeatherArchive]

This is no 2008.   There have been almost no swings and no real cold or warmth.   Just consistently normal temps with lots of rain.  

With the slow but steady uptick in warmth regarding climate (call it what you will)  what if this last winter was our modern *grand daddy* cold of the next decade and we will look back in 2030 wondering what it will take to get a Dec 2016 around here?

[TT-SEA]

Nice out there! Sunny and humid.

[ShawniganLake]

So far this quarter we have been learning about electric charge/fields. Point charges, field vectors, capacitors, electric flux, Gaussian geometry, etc. It's been extremely fascinating but also challenging.

 

I am currently on part III of a three quarter sequence, so almost done. Next test will be about magnetism/electromagnetism and the third will be on optics, from what I can tell.

Hmm, well good luck. Lots of studying I'm sure.

 

I did 4 semesters in civil engineering. Now I'm a self employed college drop out.