Phil Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Definitely warmed up in the Indian Ocean over the last few weeks. I remember a cold IO being part of the forecast for this warm season. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.pngIt's more about the zonal SSTA gradient between the IO and Pacific than the absolute SSTAs in either area. Also, that CDAS SST data is running very warm compared to every other dataset. So, I would take that into account. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 It's more about the zonal SSTA gradient between the IO and Pacific than the absolute SSTAs in either area. Also, that CDAS SST data is running very warm compared to every other dataset. So, I would take that into account. I checked some other maps and none of them show a cold Indian Ocean now... as was the case earlier in the spring. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Definitely warmed up in the Indian Ocean over the last few weeks. I remember a cold IO being part of the forecast for this warm season. I think the forecast was more based on a relatively weak Asian monsoon (which seems to be playing out so far) as opposed to absolute temps in the Indian Ocean. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 I think the forecast was more based on a relatively weak Asian monsoon (which seems to be playing out so far) as opposed to absolute temps in the Indian Ocean. OK... good to know. Phil said at one point that any analog right now has to include a cold Indian Ocean. But obviously there are other factors than just the absolute SSTA in that region. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 I checked some other maps and none of them show a cold Indian Ocean now... as was the case earlier in the spring.Okay, so I was typing a reply to this while watching some cumulonimbus develop, and a lightning bolt just comes down right in front of me and hits the pavement maybe 40ft away. I'm literally shaking right now. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Of all the close calls I've had (and there have been many) this was by far the closest. It was one of those lightning bolts that repeats itself like 5+ times, so my ears are ringing pretty badly at the moment, haha. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 I think the forecast was more based on a relatively weak Asian monsoon (which seems to be playing out so far) as opposed to absolute temps in the Indian Ocean.Yeah, the weak EASM in tandem with WPAC subsidence would be the conduit here, and cooler waters around 120E theoretically would support such a regime unless we somehow enter an east based La Niña circulation if the EPAC cools enough. However I was not expecting the ISM (Indian summer monsoon) to struggle in tandem with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), so this is very interesting. When both are weak, the NH summer wavetrain becomes very amplified, almost winter-like in some cases, with cooling observed in the middle and higher latitudes, and warming observed in the tropics/subtropics. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 There aren't many examples of profoundly weak ISM/EASM states occurring together below the intraseasonal level, but there are a few. One of the most profound examples is 1964, but maybe there are others with better ENSO matches. I'll have to analyze this more closely tonight. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Must have been one of those cells that just pop up out of no where over head where you get little to no warning until it right on top of you.I call those sneak up storms as they sneak up on you.any way that batch is now crossing the bay and weaking as no lighting is being heard on radio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Must have been one of those cells that just pop up out of no where over head where you get little to no warning until it right on top of you.I call those sneak up storms as they sneak up on you.any way that batch is now crossing the bay and weaking as no lighting is being heard on radio.Yeah, that's basically how it works during the summer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 At least the tropical projections have stabilized (finally). Appears as if the modeling has settled on June 8th +/- a few days for the return of subsidence to the WPAC/dateline: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017053118&fh=-24&xpos=0&ypos=339 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Yeah, that's basically how it works during the summer.true had a few of those types last summer in a over all lame season thunderstorm wise hopefully we get a couple good events this summer those so far it's been off to a over all poor start once again, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Ignoring the CFS's warm bias, it's roughly in line with the weekly ensemble means from the JMA, GGEM, EPS, NMME, and POAMA, so there's finally some stability in the modeled progression after the intraseasonal hiccup. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2017053112&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=46 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Impressive landscape changes... first photo popped up on facebook from 3 years ago today (5/31/14) of a party that my kids were having that day. Second photo was taken this afternoon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Those Fir trees are growing at a snails pace. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Those Fir trees are growing at a snails pace. Feels like they are growing fast... but they don't look too different in those photos. I saw some pictures from 2005 when we moved into the house and they were tiny in comparison. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 http://i.imgur.com/tyo6OG4.jpg 4 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Feels like they are growing fast... but they don't look too different in those photos. I saw some pictures from 2005 when we moved into the house and they were tiny in comparison.Firs slow down considerably once they reach about 30 feet or so. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 There is the western trough on the 00Z GFS! This is what I was expecting based on Phil's analysis. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060100/gfs_z500aNorm_us_44.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060100/gfs_T850a_us_44.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Yet another completely different GFS run. What a strange, convoluted pattern. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Those Fir trees are growing at a snails pace. I can definitely see a difference. How fast do the ones in your yard grow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 I can definitely see a difference. How fast do the ones in your yard grow?The ones that haven't reached maturity? I'd say at least 2-4 feet per year, depending on age, species, temperature, and precipitation. We have a few white pines and tulip poplars that are less than 30yrs old and have already reached 70-90ft. A lot of them have come down over the years as a result. The surviving old, mature trees have been here since this area was logged back around 1800, so they're basically maxed out at this point, most having lost their tops decades ago. We only have three of them remaining on our lot. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Weather trivia May 31st 20 years ago... The one and only time a Tornado Watch was issued for NE Oregon and Eastern Washington. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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