June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

A few aspects of the pattern are being mis-modeled in the long range, but there will likely be a break in the troughing during the third week of June, as I mentioned a few days ago.

 

During the third week of June, the separation between waves will grow before the initiation of a retrogression, so there will likely be a "ridge spoke" in there somewhere that could last 3-4 days.

[TT-SEA]

How much variation is there usually between front and back yard high temp prediction?

 

There has been a cool bias on the ECMWF for this area in general.  

[Jesse]

There has been a cool bias on the ECMWF for this area in general.

You might not be watering enough then.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

12z Euro turns warmer at the end. The trough next week never really makes it in here and kind of hangs off to the NW.

[TT-SEA]

SEA will be running about +3.7 for June after the first week (after today is in the books).  

 

The next week is not likely to be extremely cool at SEA but it will bring the monthly departure back down closer to normal.   And then there might be another warm spell towards the end of next week.  

 

I am still not sold on the idea that June will be remarkably cool in this area when all is said and done.  It might not even end up below normal.  

 

Just some thoughts from the peanut gallery.   Its pretty clear from the models that Phil pretty much perfectly called a large pattern change after the first week of June (weeks ago) based on the AAM tanking.    Once again nailing the big picture.   

[Phil]

12z Euro turns warmer at the end. The trough next week never really makes it in here and kind of hangs off to the NW.

That's a classic ECMWF bias. The latest 12z EPS mean looks nothing like it.

[TT-SEA]

That's a classic ECMWF bias. The latest 12z EPS mean looks nothing like it.

 

The 12Z EPS is out through day 9 right now and it definitely shows a ridge building late next week.    More details to follow as it continues to come out.  

[TT-SEA]

I remember Phil saying the crash was coming after the first week of June during the middle and end of May.

 

A huge trough and rain are set to move in right after midnight tonight... just as the first week of June officially comes to an end.    

 

Have to give him props... he could not have done better with the timing.  

[Phil]

SEA will be running about +3.7 for June after the first week (after today is in the books).

 

The next week is not likely to be extremely cool at SEA but it will bring the monthly departure back down closer to normal. And then there might be another warm spell towards the end of next week.

 

I am still not sold on the idea that June will be remarkably cool in this area when all is said and done. It might not even end up below normal.

 

Just some thoughts from the peanut gallery. Its pretty clear from the models that Phil pretty much perfectly called a large pattern change after the first week of June (weeks ago) based on the AAM tanking. Once again nailing the big picture.

Thanks. I was referring to the AAM tank following the very large spike, but all the same I guess.

 

I don't know how SEA specifically will finish the month, but I'm pretty confident that the troughing continues in the long run. The UV200 jet will continue to run strong. After the CCKW leaves the EPAC, the extratropical anticyclone will retract equatorward and consolidate the jet westward until the slower MJO arrives to the WHEM and beyond, which will return the jet/troughing to the western US. I think there's a 3-4 day break before the torques/momentum exchanges break it and the jet returns.

[Phil]

The 12Z EPS is out through day 9 right now and it definitely shows a ridge building late next week. More details to follow as it continues to come out.

I see 11 members with a large ridge and 41 members with a zonal/EPO pattern on stormvista. Probably skewing the ensemble mean.

 

I have the composite color-bar on, so maybe that's less descriptive.

[TT-SEA]

You might not be watering enough then.

 

 

Clearly not... my lawn is looking parched in places now and I am eager to see some heavy rain here tomorrow.   Despite my daughter's unfortunately timed school field trip to the beach tomorrow.  

 

Being on a ridge... water drains off very well here so we have to water more frequently than valley locations despite getting more rain.

 

[Phil]

Ahh, so glancing through the individual EPS members, all of them feature that "ridge spoke" I was referring to, but they time it differently by up to five days, so the EPS mean overall looks ridgy but in reality it's a bunch of differently timed jet retreats and follow-up re-extensions.

[TT-SEA]

I see 11 members with a large ridge and 41 members with a zonal/EPO pattern on stormvista. Probably skewing the ensemble mean.

 

I have the composite color-bar on, so maybe that's less descriptive.

 

Still a clear ridge shown building... here is day 7 on the 12Z EPS:

 

 

And then day 10:

 

[Jesse]

Is it possible for a weather pattern to be micro-managed?

[TT-SEA]

Is it possible for a weather pattern to be micro-managed?

 

By microclimates... most definitely.  

[Phil]

Still a clear ridge shown building... here is day 7 on the 12Z EPS:

 

 

And then day 10:

 

The EPS control run is a good example of what most EPS members do. They just time this differently so the ensemble mean looks like a slowly building ridge when in reality is a bunch of ridges and crashes.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/40F7E175-4AB8-4FD3-988B-57A274D35CA0_zpsxwzagj4d.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A1ABA6FB-F3C8-43BD-8148-5DEE576B54D7_zpse8zhzpk8.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/28972553-C35B-4F5B-8402-7A60A5B278D7_zpsedximwz0.png

[TT-SEA]

Lots of things are in flux obviously so the details are probably going to change a few times... including the timing.  

[Phil]

Watch the longitude of the subtropical EPAC ridge slide westward on both the EPS mean the control run, though, eventually relocating offshore. When that slides off the west coast, the jet returns.

[Jesse]

All looks like pretty typical June fare to me.

 

The heatwave in SW Asia last week was a noteworthy pattern. This is just run of the mill early-mid June troughing coming up for our region. Then ten day days from now we will probably be back in a warmish pattern.

[Phil]

Then the 12z EPS mean breaks it down after a few days, as most of its members are cycling it by then.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/51955350-D0FF-479E-AD19-5F0FC19FB634_zpsnpllbqns.png

[Jesse]

Clearly not... my lawn is looking parched in places now and I am eager to see some heavy rain here tomorrow. Despite my daughter's unfortunately timed school field trip to the beach tomorrow.

 

Being on a ridge... water drains off very well here so we have to water more frequently than valley locations despite getting more rain.

 

 

Low soil moisture levels could be artificially elevating temperatures. Might want to look into that.

[TT-SEA]

Low soil moisture levels could be artificially elevating temperatures. Might want to look into that.

 

Low soil moisture levels are pretty typical here in the summer... so maybe this is normal and wet soil conditions would artificially depress temperatures.  

[Jesse]

Low soil moisture levels are pretty typical here in the summer... so maybe this is normal and wet soil conditions would artificially depress temperatures.

Is a yuppie McMansion normal conditions for that area? I think it has lacked that up until the last decade or so.

[Phil]

Not trying to "micromanage the pattern", just trying to figure out how it will evolve.

 

Here's a more detailed look at how an ensemble mean can mask a "ridge crash" via timing disagreement.

 

12z EPS days 11, 13, and 15:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BCD55FCD-5E62-439E-8A02-5ED4CE4B4454_zpsj59qkapc.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C2A75C9F-2986-4793-8E54-7EC05AB80A6B_zps5jx9xagx.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BAC9C080-42CC-4319-B33D-891A5522E103_zpssgupqnb4.png

 

Versus the 12z EPS control run, which is the actual progression on the ensemble members:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DCD39C60-F161-458C-B05E-0525006280C4_zpsd07mny1i.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D2D64A69-A6B8-4EDE-BCCE-0626C9CFCBDF_zpsqhn73bfl.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C955969B-58C0-4C6C-949D-EEFBC82C5BCF_zpsfacdozdp.png

[TT-SEA]

Is a yuppie McMansion normal conditions for that area? I think it has lacked that up until the last decade or so.

 

I am pretty sure that water has always drained off our ridge fairly well and the valley locations typically have more soil moisture.    Seems pretty logical looking at our topography.   

 

Side note... our HOA is legally responsible for forest management in our development and 80% of the land area has to be in its natural state.   That is probably better than the clear cutting mess that occurred for the previous 150 years here.  

[Phil]

I am pretty sure that water has always drained off our ridge fairly well and the valley locations typically have more soil moisture. Seems pretty logical looking at our topography.

 

Side note... our HOA is legally responsible for forest management in our development and 80% of the land area has to be in its natural state. That is probably better than the clear cutting mess that occurred for the previous 150 years here.

Why aren't people permitted to build on top of those ridges behind your house? They seem to manage a lot more snow.

[Jesse]

I am pretty sure that water has always drained off our ridge fairly well and the valley locations typically have more soil moisture. Seems pretty logical looking at our topography.

 

Side note... our HOA is legally responsible for forest management in our development and 80% of the land area has to be in its natural state. That is probably better than the clear cutting mess that occurred for the previous 150 years here.

Interesting to know. Is your area technically part of the Mountains to Sound Greenway?

[TT-SEA]

Why aren't people permitted to build on top of those ridges behind your house?

 

 

It would likely be an infrastructure nightmare and not feasible... but legally it cannot happen even if someone had the financial means to do so thanks to the Mountains-to-Sound Greenway Trust.

 

http://mtsgreenway.org/

[TT-SEA]

Interesting to know. Is your area technically part of the Mountains to Sound Greenway?

 

We posted simultaneously.  

 

Yes it is.  That is part of why we have to manage the forest.   I believe our development was grandfathered in before it was built out... but the entire area from Issaquah to Ellensburg is basically protected.   

 

They do not even allow billboards along I-90 which would negatively impact the views.    I love that.   

[Jesse]

Why aren't people permitted to build on top of those ridges behind your house? They seem to manage a lot more snow.

We somewhat value scenery out here.

[TT-SEA]

Why aren't people permitted to build on top of those ridges behind your house? They seem to manage a lot more snow.

 

When he was younger, my snow-loving son would often look up there during the winter when it was covered in snow and tell me that someday he was going to build a house up there.   He would get so frustrated that he could see so much snow so close but not always have the same in our backyard.  

[Front Ranger]

Been a dry/warm last couple weeks across the entire region.

 

 

[James Jones]

All looks like pretty typical June fare to me.

 

The heatwave in SW Asia last week was a noteworthy pattern. This is just run of the mill early-mid June troughing coming up for our region. Then ten day days from now we will probably be back in a warmish pattern.

Yep. June 2010 or 2015 this is not. Kind of nice to have a typical start to summer. 

[Jesse]

Been a dry/warm last couple weeks across the entire region.

 

The really crazy thing is, nobody but you saw it coming.

[Front Ranger]

SEA will be running about +3.7 for June after the first week (after today is in the books).

 

The next week is not likely to be extremely cool at SEA but it will bring the monthly departure back down closer to normal. And then there might be another warm spell towards the end of next week.

 

I am still not sold on the idea that June will be remarkably cool in this area when all is said and done. It might not even end up below normal.

 

Yeah, odds at this point are certainly against a cool June. Could still happen, of course, but would probably take a couple weeks of sustained troughing like 2012 to pull it off.

[Phil]

Yeah, odds at this point are certainly against a cool June. Could still happen, of course, but would probably take a couple weeks of sustained troughing like 2012 to pull it off.

Top-10 record warm June is on the table.

 

I can envision you up late at night, watching every model run with your PJ's on inside out, doing a warm anomaly dance.

[Phil]

The really crazy thing is, nobody but you saw it coming.

Lol. This clearly means a lot to him.

 

(And me!!!)

[TT-SEA]

Top-10 record warm June is on the table.

 

I can envision you up late at night, watching every model run with your PJ's on inside out, doing a warm anomaly dance.

 

Ahhh Phil... that is me not Jared.      

[Front Ranger]

Lol. This clearly means a lot to him.

 

Yep. That's why I'm posting tons of maps illustrating the modeled pattern day after day.