June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

We all track them in our heads. What's wrong with you?

What can I say? I've always been slow up there.

[Phil]

What a weird convective progression on the 12z GFS. I'm not sure this makes sense, but we'll find out:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017060812&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=339

 

Almost like the system refuses to enter a niño circulation, but won't touch a niña with a ten foot pole.

[ShawniganLake]

Month to date.

 

SEA: +4.0

Seattle WFO: +3.6

OLM: +2.6

PDX: +3.1

SLE: +2.7

Shawnigan Lake: +2.7C thru the 6th.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF agrees on the ridge for late next week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017060812/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

[Deweydog]

12Z ECMWF agrees on the ridge for late next week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017060812/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

If it happens it won't last forever.

[Phil]

By the time we actually get there, it wouldn't surprise me if that ridge morphs into a two day event. There's no real forcing for it that I can determine.

 

Sort of reminds me of the event last July, which also ended up being an artificial feedback loop in the modeling.

[Deweydog]

By the time we actually get there, it wouldn't surprise me if that ridge morphs into a two day event. There's no real forcing for it that I can determine.

 

Sort of reminds me of the event last July, which also ended up being an artificial feedback loop in the modeling.

Fake ridges in an era of fake news...

[ShawniganLake]

Close to 1/2" of rain here this morning. Clouds are beginning to thin out as the west wind picks up. Very well could be the wettest day of the month.

[Jesse]

Just a minor major heat event at the end of the 12z Euro.

[Kayla]

New JMA seasonal for the next month just released. Pretty much the expected background state.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1BF2BB13-0888-43D1-9A4A-CEB1C4219178_zpsoskjxidc.jpg

 

I can live with this.

[TT-SEA]

By the time we actually get there, it wouldn't surprise me if that ridge morphs into a two day event. There's no real forcing for it that I can determine.

 

Sort of reminds me of the event last July, which also ended up being an artificial feedback loop in the modeling.

 

This has been happening recently... the heat wave over Memorial Day weekend was originally shown to last much longer than it really did and became watered down as the time approached.

[weatherfan2012]

I just need to survive the next 8 weeks then I'm out of here until September. It's always hot here in the summer, so it doesn't usually matter once the cold fronts stop coming in.

even a normal summer can be considered hot just from the high dewpoints in it self.we had a few summers where it wasn't all that hot temperature wise but the dewpoints and humidity were high all season long which made those summers just as bad if not worse as summers that were extremely hot temperature wise.those no summers can come close to the 2010-2012 periold those were summers from pure hell.

[ShawniganLake]

Windy here but also more sun then I was expecting this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Almost an inch of rain here and still raining with another large batch moving in now.

[Timmy Supercell]

Got close to a couple storms today. Earlier a few CG's near K-Falls just to the east, now my west side sky is really dark. I hope I get something later.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Close to 1/2" of rain here this morning. Clouds are beginning to thin out as the west wind picks up. Very well could be the wettest day of the month.

 

Only about 1/3" of rain here, it cleared out a little earlier than forecast. Just clear skies and windy right now. A number of recent GFS runs have flirted with some heavier rains starting toward the end of next week, so maybe we'll get another shot.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_32.png

[stuffradio]

The SOI has been in an El Nino state for the last ~week. I got more than 3/4" of rain through 5PM today. Haven't checked since, but it's been raining steadily. I'm at something like 1.5" of rain now this month.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Ended up with .74" at my house for the day, and still have some light rain falling.  Looks like the airport only recorded .47"

 

I haven't had much time to pay attention to the models or forecast, I knew it was going to rain a fair amount today, but it was a bit more of a blustery day than I was anticipating.

 

Turned out to be a really nice October day!      

[Jesse]

Pretty amazing how much this "cool spell" has been watered down.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty amazing how much this "cool spell" has been watered down.

 

This is actually the deepest into the year that PDX has gone since 2015 without a 100 degree day.

[Front Ranger]

Tough to expect much cooler than highs in the low 60s this time of year. 50s can still happen, of course, but is a lot harder to pull off than it was a couple weeks ago.

[Farmboy]

Pretty amazing how much this "cool spell" has been watered down.

That's a bummer, we could really use a long-lasting cold, sun-less, rainy period to lift everyone's spirits...

[Jesse]

Tough to expect much cooler than highs in the low 60s this time of year. 50s can still happen, of course, but is a lot harder to pull off than it was a couple weeks ago.

I don't think anyone mentioned highs in the 50s.

 

My comment was more referring to the duration.

[Jesse]

This is actually the deepest into the year that PDX has gone since 2015 without a 100 degree day.

Pretty impressive stuff.

[Tyler Mode]

In my 21 years of record, I've had a maximum in the 50s as late as June 20th.

 

Then no minimum maximums in the 50s until September 6th.

Tough to expect much cooler than highs in the low 60s this time of year. 50s can still happen, of course, but is a lot harder to pull off than it was a couple weeks ago.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think anyone mentioned highs in the 50s.

 

My comment was more referring to the duration.

 

I don't think I said anyone did. Just commenting on the intensity of the cool air mass compared to what's possible this time of year. 

[Jesse]

Just had a fairly heavy shower with gusty winds move through.

[WeatherArchive]

Yesterday had over 50 hundredths of an inch or 50 points of rain however you look at it.  Today a squally shower came thru and it's still raining off and on.  Temps down to the low 50s now.

[Jesse]

Five day Euro looking good.

[Farmboy]

Summer perfection..

[Phil]

Nevermind, I think the URL was just changed. Found them.

 

Seems all the ASOS stations are included.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KOAK

[Phil]

I like how NOAA's layout is similar to wunderground's table and graphical pages. Makes me feel like my own wx station data is actually worth something.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDBETHE62#history/tdata/s20170609/e20170609/mdaily

[TT-SEA]

Summer perfection..

 

In the 7-10 period... yes indeed.  

[Phil]

In the 7-10 period... yes indeed.

Cool and cloudy is my definition of summer perfection.

 

Any kind of cloudy, actually. Because sunny = hot.

[TT-SEA]

Cool and cloudy is my definition of summer perfection.

 

Any kind of cloudy, actually.

 

 

Just depends on your perspective and climate you live in.   You have lots of sun over the remainder of the year.  I am guessing your preference would be different if you lived here where sunshine usually means 70s and 80s with low humidity in the summer and the rest of the year is typically cloudy and drizzly.    

[Phil]

Just depends on your perspective and climate you live in. You have lots of sun over the remainder of the year. I am guessing your preference would be different if you lived here where sunshine usually means 70s and 80s with low humidity in the summer.

 

And the rest of the year is typically cloudy and drizzly.

I'd probably enjoy it either way. What's the difference between sunny/75*F and cloudy/65*F? Both are very comfortable to be outdoors in.

 

Plus, you don't need as much sunscreen on cloudy days. Very easy to fry here (or anywhere, really) under the summer sun angles. I got a nasty burn last week after forgetting sunscreen for just 4hrs, and I'm used to the sun.

[TT-SEA]

I'd probably enjoy it either way. What's the difference between sunny/75*F and cloudy/65*F? Both are very comfortable to be outdoors in.

 

Plus, you don't need as much sunscreen on cloudy days. Very easy to fry here (or anywhere, really) under the summer sun angles. I got a nasty burn last week after forgetting sunscreen for just 4hrs, and I'm used to the sun.

Big difference if you want to be on the water.

 

Nice to have sun during a small part of the year rather than having it be rare year around.

 

You should move to Sitka AK if you want clouds and rain all year long.

[Phil]

Big difference if you want to be on the water.

 

Nice to have sun during a small part of the year rather than having it be rare year around.

 

You should move to Sitka AK if you want clouds and rain all year long.

Well, I'll be on the water in BC during late July, after a few days in Seattle/Everett. So maybe I'll get to test your theory regarding the importance of sunshine.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure my current academic and career path(s) preclude Alaska as a place of residence for me. I'll probably move somewhere N/W of here. I'm just not sure where yet.

[Phil]

Big shift from the May tropical forcing. Looks like we do have an active MJO marked by a slew of CCKWs, so model performance will remain piss poor.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Jesse]

No my opinion is inherently superior! Just look at all of the people who share it. The masses are always right.