June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

So far through this warm season, the MJO/convective aggregate has favored the IO/Maritime domain (mostly phases 2/3/4). This year we've seen the phase-3 (E-IO/W-Maritime) stage quite frequently.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/26F7CDF0-F9B4-4856-9929-46DE08D3F9CC_zpsv5psxmne.gif

 

Note how the relationship of EHEM (IO/maritime, phases 2/3/4) forcing to US temperature changes between AMJ and JJA.

 

AMJ:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F94EE30F-878F-491E-A850-4C41136D050C_zpsc2xfohj2.png

 

JJA

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BA171705-498C-4D46-BCD1-FA0E7A748998_zpsced4alml.png

 

So, assuming the EHEM forcing dominates the warm season pattern, then a cooler summer should be a lock, because a warm western summer has never occurred under dominant IO/Maritime forcing & downwelling -QBO.

[TT-SEA]

No my opinion is inherently superior! Just look at all of the people who share it. The masses are always right.

 

Just offering my opinion... and pointing out that Phil's perspective is that sun usually means intolerable heat in the summer.   Not true here... so his opinion might be different if he lived here.

 

If you live in the desert you pray for rain.   If you live the dreariest climate in the US (as Phil has pointed out many times)... you might appreciate sun more than people living in sunny climates.  

[TT-SEA]

Fair amount sun and lots of convective looking showers on the radar.   Makes for an interesting sky here today.  

[Phil]

For future reference when I post the velocity potential graphics:

 

1) Dateline/Pac convection: Western ridging, sunny Seattle:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2EB42B43-1963-4B6C-AE2E-3EDEA5DAD484_zpsqyibw9id.jpg

 

 

2) Dateline/Pac subsidence: Western troughing, dreary Seattle:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BBCAACD2-9B5C-460D-88A8-5888E57FE308_zpstmybh1jk.jpg

[Phil]

In reality it's often less straightforward, but IMO that's an adequate summary during periods of stronger convective coupling with the NH wavetrain(s).

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017060912&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=0

[TT-SEA]

For future reference when I post the velocity potential graphics:

 

1) Dateline/Pac convection: Western ridging, sunny Seattle:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2EB42B43-1963-4B6C-AE2E-3EDEA5DAD484_zpsqyibw9id.jpg

 

 

2) Dateline/Pac subsidence: Western troughing, dreary Seattle:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BBCAACD2-9B5C-460D-88A8-5888E57FE308_zpstmybh1jk.jpg

 

 

Thanks Phil!   This is helpful.   

[Phil]

Thanks Phil! This is helpful.

Haha, no problem. Here's an (oversimplified) analysis for the next seven days using the 12z GEFS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DD9079B3-2F3C-49D6-83F7-81D08B41ECF9_zps1dncdjfj.jpg

[Phil]

Haha, no problem. Here's an (oversimplified) analysis for the next seven days using the 12z GEFS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DD9079B3-2F3C-49D6-83F7-81D08B41ECF9_zps1dncdjfj.jpg

Five day averaged 500mb height anomalies:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3AE0DFA1-C96D-434D-8437-31E5A289E5FF_zpsruthkjeo.png

[Phil]

So in the context of this convoluted upcoming week two period, there is a WHEM/EPAC signature here, albeit unstable.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/972FC481-6960-474F-9419-5DCE7ACA3044_zpsmpkf7hhf.jpg

 

Full week average:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C807D61E-E75F-4B0D-8770-3427B2816FDA_zpsofoqr3ut.png

[Phil]

So, my guess is there will be large model swings within the upcoming week two period. I doubt the modeling is accurate right now.

[luminen]

88F in Fairbanks and 90F in Tok right now. Wow, that is pretty hot for June 9th.

 

edit:

... Fairbanks hits 90 degrees...

The Fairbanks Airport hit 90 degrees Friday. This is the first 90
degree day in Fairbanks since June 26, 2013. This is also the
second earliest 90 degree day on record in Fairbanks (the earliest
occurred on may 28, 1947).

 

 

----

 

Looks like FBX hit 90F earlier today then...

[TT-SEA]

88F in Fairbanks and 90F in Tok right now. Wow, that is pretty hot for June 9th.

 

edit:

... Fairbanks hits 90 degrees...

 

The Fairbanks Airport hit 90 degrees Friday. This is the first 90

degree day in Fairbanks since June 26, 2013. This is also the

second earliest 90 degree day on record in Fairbanks (the earliest

occurred on may 28, 1947).

 

 

----

 

Looks like FBX hit 90F earlier today then...

 

Impressive.

 

Looks they will have PNW lowlands type crash with 55 and rain on Sunday.  

[Jesse]

Impressive.

 

Looks they will have PNW lowlands type crash with 55 and rain on Sunday.

I think a better way of putting it is that the PNW has Alaska-like crashes sometimes. Big temperature swings like that are more common up there during the warm season.

[TT-SEA]

I think a better way of putting it is that the PNW has Alaska-like crashes sometimes. Big temperature swings like that are more common up there during the warm season.

I stand corrected.

[TT-SEA]

Looked like it was going to really rain here this evening but it fell apart on arrival and turned into a beautiful evening.

 

Sun setting now at 9 p.m. on Mt Si...

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looked like it was going to really rain here this evening but it fell apart on arrival and turned into a beautiful evening.

 

Sun setting now at 9 p.m. on Mt Si...

 

 

Might have to wait until next Thursday / Friday for another shot of widespread rain.

[TT-SEA]

Might have to wait until next Thursday / Friday for another shot of widespread rain.

 

Days are about to start getting shorter... downhill slide.   Your suffering through our hellish summer is almost over.   Maybe a little spike in early August as one last hurrah.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Days are about to start getting shorter... downhill slide.   Your suffering through our hellish summer is almost over.   Maybe a little spike in early August as one last hurrah.  

 

I've never experienced what I'd consider a "rainy" July, but I certainly have experienced rainy Augusts. I expect we'll have another dry July unfortunately, but August will be wet; we're due for another rainy month. I love the first fall fronts, they do a great job freshening up the air, clearing away the summer haze.

[TT-SEA]

I've never experienced what I'd consider a "rainy" July, but I certainly have experienced rainy Augusts. I expect we'll have another dry July unfortunately, but August will be wet; we're due for another rainy month. I love the first fall fronts, they do a great job freshening up the air, clearing away the summer haze.

 

You can hang in there... August is just a few weeks away.   So close now.   Its been a long, smoggy slog.   

[stuffradio]

I'd probably enjoy it either way. What's the difference between sunny/75*F and cloudy/65*F? Both are very comfortable to be outdoors in.

 

Plus, you don't need as much sunscreen on cloudy days. Very easy to fry here (or anywhere, really) under the summer sun angles. I got a nasty burn last week after forgetting sunscreen for just 4hrs, and I'm used to the sun.

You can still need sunscreen on cloudy days though. I know you said as much, but I wanted to clarify that

[stuffradio]

I've never experienced what I'd consider a "rainy" July, but I certainly have experienced rainy Augusts. I expect we'll have another dry July unfortunately, but August will be wet; we're due for another rainy month. I love the first fall fronts, they do a great job freshening up the air, clearing away the summer haze.

We're not really due for another rainy month after all the rainy months we just came out of. We have 75% of the year to experience rainy months.

[ShawniganLake]

Dropped down to 40F here this morning, but temps are running about 5 degrees warmer tonight.

[Tyler Mode]

Three separate thunderstorms yesterday was a nice treat.  0.40" of rain for the garden is also helpful.

 

I'd take one day of soaking rains a week then back to sun.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining and 44 degrees here this morning. Decent 3 day rainfall totals for June.

 

6/8: .82

6/9: .30

6/10: .25" so far 

[ShawniganLake]

Some very locally heavy showers over parts of victoria this morning, close to 1" in places. But it's been totally dry here, just to the north.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Some very locally heavy showers over parts of victoria this morning, close to 1" in places. But it's been totally dry here, just to the north.

 

Yeah, wasn't expecting that at all. Looks like this area was right on the edge of it, only about 0.15" here while a narrow stretch a few miles north of here ended up with about an inch but the airport ended up with nothing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ULL spinning over NW Oregon today, radar starting to fill in. 

[ShawniganLake]

After the wettest spring in history, the BC interior really doesn't need the rain today.

[Jesse]

After the wettest spring in history, the BC interior really doesn't need the rain today.

Maybe they can avoid experiencing another devastating wildfire season like they've seen in many recent years.

[Jesse]

Models seem to be delaying a big warm event next week. Those that do show one make it relatively brief and follow it with a crash. If this sort of progression occurs kudos to Phil.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

After the wettest spring in history, the BC interior really doesn't need the rain today.

 

Looks pretty primed for convective showers across much of the southern half of the province today. Currently 61F here with a mix of sun/clouds, might not be done with the rain yet after all.

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe they can avoid experiencing another devastating wildfire season like they've seen in many recent years.

Looking that way. Wet June's are key to a slow fire season. Feast or famine I guess. Dry and fires or flooding, mudslides, and washouts.

 

Lake Okanagan is at record levels and still rising.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pretty healthy showers on the west side of the Willamette Valley right now. On and off showers continue here, up to about .45" on the day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 years ago today....

 

[Jesse]

Some pretty healthy showers on the west side of the Willamette Valley right now. On and off showers continue here, up to about .45" on the day.

Partly sunny and getting varm up here.

[Phil]

Models seem to be delaying a big warm event next week. Those that do show one make it relatively brief and follow it with a crash. If this sort of progression occurs kudos to Phil.

I've been looking hard for any forcing/feedback mechanism(s) that would promote a prolonged period of western ridging, as was being modeled yesterday, and I just don't see it anywhere. Like, not even close.

 

I still like my call for a 3-4 day warm-up during the third week of June, forced by frictional torque effects under the wave dispersion forcing regime, but it wouldn't shock me if it ended up lasting two days or less.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Partly sunny and getting varm up here.

 

I'd love to be mowing my lawn right now. 50 degrees here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Within a couple days most Willamette Valley locations will be down to average temp wise for the month.

[BLI snowman]

Nice day from Portland north. 60 with scattered sun here. ULL is pretty stationary.

[stuffradio]

Strawberries are nowhere near being ripe yet, or even big. Fields are quite delayed still, even the blueberries.