TT-SEA Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 I said setting up to be. Looking beyond just SEA, most of the region has been pretty dry for a couple months. The only thing preventing it from being historically dry for that period was a couple wet days in mid June. It's been a very dry pattern overall, and looks to continue. I understand your general point... but you can't cherry pick days to remove from your analysis. If we remove a couple days this past winter then SEA had no snow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Most of the region was drier than normal in May. Numbers. May17PNormWRCC-NW.pngNot in the lowlands, though. #facts Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 I understand your general point... but you can't cherry pick days to remove from your analysis. If we remove a couple days this past winter then SEA had no snow. Not cherry-picking. I was comparing to your point about the number of rainy days Feb-Apr compared to the number of rainy days mid May to now. It's definitely been below average the past 60 days. And even with a couple very wet days, it's still been drier than normal across the region. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Not in the lowlands, though. #facts The lowlands of OR are in fact part of the PNW. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Not cherry-picking. I was comparing to your point about the number of rainy days Feb-Apr compared to the number of rainy days mid May to now. And even with a couple very wet days, it's still been drier than normal across the region.Yeah, and J/A/S 2016 was cooler than average "across the region" as well. Can't have it both ways, my friend. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 The lowlands of OR are in fact part of the PNW.Much of the coastal OR lowlands were wetter than average too. #facts Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Much of the coastal OR lowlands were wetter than average too. #facts The majority of the PNW, without cherry-picking any particular micro-region, was drier than average in May. Not hard to see. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Yeah, and J/A/S 2016 was cooler than average "across the region" as well. Can't have it both ways, my friend. Still thinking the June 1 - July 15 period ends up "troughy and cool" for the PNW? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 The majority of the PNW, without cherry-picking any particular micro-region, was drier than average in May. Not hard to see.You do realize those maps are based on preliminary data, right? Here are the finalized NOAA numbers: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F8BA51FD-671D-438A-B2D5-C984CCB76346_zpsy34lyk1n.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 You do realize those maps are based on preliminary data, right? Here are the finalized NOAA numbers: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F8BA51FD-671D-438A-B2D5-C984CCB76346_zpsy34lyk1n.png Yeah, that doesn't really prove your point. And I'm not sure why less detailed data would be more accurate in this case. It's been a warm/dry past couple months in the PNW. No way around that, really. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Still thinking the June 1 - July 15 period ends up "troughy and cool" for the PNW?How did that -AO work out for ya last winter? Oh, let's not forget January 2013. #micdrop Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 I said setting up to be. Looking beyond just SEA, most of the region has been pretty dry for a couple months. The only thing preventing it from being historically dry for that period was a couple wet days in mid June. It's been a very dry pattern overall, and looks to continue. Pretty typical of this point in the year though, we still have a long ways to go. Look at a year like 1952 or 1967 if you want to see truly historic dry stretches in this region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 How did that -AO work out for ya last winter? Oh, let's not forget January 2013. #micdrop- Top-10 warmest May. - No early-Feb event for Puget Sound. Barely scratching the surface here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Averaging May/June. Looks wetter than average across most of the west side, especially around Puget Sound. So no, it hasn't been a "dry couple of months". http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5DFC54EB-7C15-469A-B35C-8DA899BADD2B_zpsp3k9o0kf.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Averaging May/June. Looks wetter than average across most of the west side, especially around Puget Sound. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5DFC54EB-7C15-469A-B35C-8DA899BADD2B_zpsp3k9o0kf.png It was a little wetter than normal for the Puget Sound region for May/June combined. But if you want to include all of the inland areas then you can say the PNW in general was drier than normal. That does not mean much to us here though. It was normal to slightly wetter than normal overall in our area... but it was all focused in the first half of May and 2 days in June. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Quite the marine layer day across SW WA and NW OR. Its been sunny here all day... low clouds made it up to the back side of the ridge behind our house but never crossed that barrier. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Quite the marine layer day across SW WA and NW OR. Its been sunny here all day... low clouds made it up to the back side of the ridge behind our house but never crossed that barrier.A sunny and breezy 74 here today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 I had some clouds for a while this morning, but it has since burned up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 I had some clouds for a while this morning, but it has since burned up.Fire is the devil's only friend. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Pretty typical of this point in the year though, we still have a long ways to go. Look at a year like 1952 or 1967 if you want to see truly historic dry stretches in this region. The number of rainy days has been well below normal for the past 60 days. Depending on how the next 60 days go, could be looking at a historically low number for a 120 day period for many places. Obviously, a stretch like 1967, 1970, or 1987 will be tough to beat. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 How did that -AO work out for ya last winter? Oh, let's not forget January 2013. #micdrop - Top-10 warmest May. - No early-Feb event for Puget Sound. Barely scratching the surface here. For the record... 1. You were onboard for a -AO last winter, too.2. Jan 2013 is when, in my winter outlook in November, I predicted would be the best chance that winter for an Arctic air mass. Jan 2013 is when the PNW and West saw the coldest air of the winter.3. Top 10 warmest May was not a prediction, just a possibility thrown out mid month. It ended up as a solidly warm May.4. I never said there would not be an early Feb event for the Puget Sound. Does this mean you're finally admitting your call for a troughy/cool early summer is not happening? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 For the record... 1. You were onboard for a -AO last winter, too.No, I predicted a -NAM (domain extends to stratopause). That prediction ended up correct except for January. 2. Jan 2013 is when, in my winter outlook in November, I predicted would be the best chance that winter for an Arctic air mass. Jan 2013 is when the PNW and West saw the coldest air of the winter.Yeah, no. You were super bullish on an Arctic blast that month, and everyone here remembers it. Even today, you still try to "elevate" that month into something it isn't. 3. Top 10 warmest May was not a prediction, just a possibility thrown out mid month. It ended up as a solidly warm May.I think everyone here remembers this one, too. Trying to make your forecasts as vague as possible (stuff like "May will be MUCH nicer than April", etc) simply won't cut it. 4. I never said there would not be an early Feb event for the Puget Sound.I have screen-shots of this one somewhere. You were against the idea when models took a wrong turn and you thought you could score a coup. Or something along those lines. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Oh, Phil. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 For the record... 1. You were onboard for a -AO last winter, too.2. Jan 2013 is when, in my winter outlook in November, I predicted would be the best chance that winter for an Arctic air mass. Jan 2013 is when the PNW and West saw the coldest air of the winter.3. Top 10 warmest May was not a prediction, just a possibility thrown out mid month. It ended up as a solidly warm May.4. I never said there would not be an early Feb event for the Puget Sound. Does this mean you're finally admitting your call for a troughy/cool early summer is not happening?It's a good thing we're getting this on the record. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 Some serious flare ups in the BC interior today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 After a Dec-Apr period that featured a predominantly cool West/warm East pattern across the U.S., we've now seen mainly the opposite for the past 2 months. 60dTDeptUS.png And after a very wet late winter/early spring, the PNW has turned pretty dry over the same period. 60dPNormWRCC-NW.png It seems the PNW has transitioned into a wet fall, dry winter, wet spring, dry summer regime, which is interesting considering that parts of Central Asia also have this pattern. It hasn't rained significantly here in quite a while. I don't even remember when it last rained and all the grass is quickly turning yellow/brown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 It's a good thing we're getting this on the record.Should I type it up on my Stenotype? http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-I9SwGtqJxaw/TdGv_0uXgUI/AAAAAAAAAEI/UlLeTd81xKs/s1600/diamante2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 It was a little wetter than normal for the Puget Sound region for May/June combined. But if you want to include all of the inland areas then you can say the PNW in general was drier than normal. That does not mean much to us here though. It was normal to slightly wetter than normal overall in our area... but it was all focused in the first half of May and 2 days in June.Yea I like how a wet Puget Sound and coast translates to a wetter than average 2 months for the PNW. Not hard to see that the most of the PNW has been dry for the past 2 months. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 The town of Cache creek has been evacuated due to a wildfire. Hard to believe just back in May the same town was hit by flooding that took the life of their fire chief. Rough couple of months there. https://www.google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4195351 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 The town of Cache creek has been evacuated due to a wildfire. Hard to believe just back in May the same town was hit by flooding that took the life of their fire chief. Rough couple of months there. https://www.google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4195351That fire burned 8000+acres in the past 5 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 The town of Cache creek has been evacuated due to a wildfire. Hard to believe just back in May the same town was hit by flooding that took the life of their fire chief. Rough couple of months there. https://www.google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4195351. 100 Mile House was being threatened by a fire today as well. I see their nightly box office report at work (South Cariboo Theatre). They actually stayed open and played a movie tonight, but apparently parts of the town were being evacuated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 100 Mile House was being threatened by a fire today as well. I see their nightly box office report at work (South Cariboo Theatre). They actually stayed open and played a movie tonight, but apparently parts of the town were being evacuated.We have a cabin to the SE of there. Sounds like the fire was burning on the north end of town, between 103 and 108 Mile. My mom called and said there wasn't any fire too close to her. Provincial state of emergency has been issued as fires flared up all over the province today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 We have a cabin to the SE of there. Sounds like the fire was burning on the north end of town, between 103 and 108 Mile. My mom called and said there wasn't any fire too close to her. Provincial state of emergency has been issued as fires flared up all over the province today. That's good that it seems to be missing the town proper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 I don't want to upset anybody by talking about where I am today, but I do find it notable that PDX has seen no 60+ lows in July thus far, without a lot of opportunities in sight. Very nice pattern we are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 We have a cabin to the SE of there. Sounds like the fire was burning on the north end of town, between 103 and 108 Mile. My mom called and said there wasn't any fire too close to her. Provincial state of emergency has been issued as fires flared up all over the province today.Yikes. Hope everyone is ok that you know. It seems like huge wildfires are so common up there in recent years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 Yikes. Hope everyone is ok that you know. It seems like huge wildfires are so common up there in recent years.Things got bad really fast around the province yesterday. The news is reporting 36,000 people have been evacuated as of this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 Things got bad really fast around the province yesterday. The news is reporting 36,000 people have been evacuated as of this morning. Nature is messing with us this year... rains almost non-stop for months and then completely shuts off. Floods and fire. Be nice to have an occasional soaking rain once in awhile during the summer. I think it might start turning smoky soon depending on the upper level flow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 And then you have Sitka... their forecast has looked the same all summer. This would be a bad November forecast here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 Fairbanks looks lovely though... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 I think this summer may be known for being the summer we couldn't go three days without a Sitkupdate. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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