August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would even prefer the upper midwest at this point. Heat and humidity, but at least summer t-storms and a green landscape. 

[Front Ranger]

To be honest the last 4-5 summers have gotten me to the point where I am almost ready to move because of how terrible they have been. Maybe somewhere more coastal or higher in elevation.

Stampede Pass? Sitka?

[Deweydog]

To be honest the last 4-5 summers have gotten me to the point where I am almost ready to move because of how terrible they have been. Maybe somewhere more coastal or higher in elevation.

Nothern Idaho?

[Phil]

I would even prefer the upper midwest at this point. Heat and humidity, but at least summer t-storms and a green landscape.

You'd probably do well in Michigan or Maine.

[wx_statman]

To be honest the last 4-5 summers have gotten me to the point where I am almost ready to move because of how terrible they have been. Maybe somewhere more coastal or higher in elevation. 

 

Qaqortoq??

[Jesse]

Hey, that freak doesn't like hot summers. Get 'em guys!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

To be honest the last 4-5 summers have gotten me to the point where I am almost ready to move because of how terrible they have been. Maybe somewhere more coastal or higher in elevation. 

 

This summer has been close to perfect here except for the early August heat wave and smoke.    Goldilocks summer for the most part... warm and consistently sunny but not real hot.    Given the terrible spring... it was a nice reprieve.  

 

We just had back-to-back wettest winters ever and the wettest spring ever.   A 3-month break each year is not really that much to expect.  

 

The Midwest is green and there are thunderstorms... but the landscape is boring and redundant and the bugs are absolutely miserable.  My wife is so happy to get home every year after our annual trip.  

 

After a couple insanely wet years... moving away from the PNW because there is not enough rain and summer being too sunny does not seem right IMHO.  

[TT-SEA]

I'm with Andrew.

 

Many times over the last 4-5 summers, I've sat hunkered inside my house here, watching trees and undergrowth die, loath to go outside because of heat that's worse than L.A.'s and air quality that's worse than L.A.'s, and wondered:  "I scrimped and saved and plotted and planned for decades to escape L.A. so I could come up here to this???"

 

For those of you who love hot, sunny summers and wish the PNW could be like this all the time, I recommend L.A.

 

This is nothing like L.A.  

 

They don't go months and months every year with persistent rain and clouds like we do... despite our 12 weeks of summer which tend to be sunny and dry.  

[Front Ranger]

Nothern Idaho?

 

Whitefish, MT might be right up his alley.

[wx_statman]

I'm with Andrew.

 

Many times over the last 4-5 summers, I've sat hunkered inside my house here, watching trees and undergrowth die, loath to go outside because of heat that's worse than L.A.'s and air quality that's worse than L.A.'s, and wondered:  "I scrimped and saved and plotted and planned for decades to escape L.A. so I could come up here to this???"

 

For those of you who love hot, sunny summers and wish the PNW could be like this all the time, I recommend L.A.

 

Eugene has really been cooking in recent years. You guys are dealing with your 6th individual month with 10+ days of 90 degree heat just since 2013. There were only 3 such months between 1938 - 1958, for example. Pretty dramatic difference. 

[TT-SEA]

Whitefish, MT might be right up his alley.

Montana seems terribly smoky every year when we drive through there.

[BLI snowman]

I think we should all move to Kennewick.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene has really been cooking in recent years. You guys are dealing with your 6th individual month with 10+ days of 90 degree heat just since 2013. There were only 3 such months between 1938 - 1958, for example. Pretty dramatic difference. 

 

That's what I mean. These are not the summers I grew up with. Sure we had heatwaves and such, but the marine influence Summer 2013-17 has been almost non-existent. I don't know if it is just cyclical, or if it is something like a new normal... But It has really been harsh. Like I said I would take a warm summer climate if it came with some thundershowers and green like they have in the upper midwest. Maine would be amazing or Northern Michigan. I have looked at property there and I could buy a decent home and quite a bit of acreage in those places with the cash equity in my home if I were to sell. 

[Jesse]

Montana seems terribly smoky every year when we drive through there.

It's rarely smoky when we go.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Montana seems terribly smoky every year when we drive through there.

 

I can deal with the smoke. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This summer has been close to perfect here except for the early August heat wave and smoke.    Goldilocks summer for the most part... warm and consistently sunny but not real hot.    Given the terrible spring... it was a nice reprieve.  

 

We just had back-to-back wettest winters ever and the wettest spring ever.   A 3-month break each year is not really that much to expect.  

 

The Midwest is green and there are thunderstorms... but the landscape is boring and redundant and the bugs are absolutely miserable.  My wife is so happy to get home every year after our annual trip.  

 

After a couple insanely wet years... moving away from the PNW because there is not enough rain and summer being too sunny does not seem right IMHO.  

 

A couple things. Spring once we got past March was not that bad down here. Pretty much average temps and slightly above average precip. This is the 5th warm/hot summer in a row Salem and points south. It gets a little old. 

 

As your sons would have noticed, things REALLY dry out up here, even in the foothills. I was up by Packwood and the entrance to Rainier a few weeks ago and things stay much greener up that way. 

[TT-SEA]

It's rarely smoky when we go.

 

I can't remember a time driving through there when it was not smoky and brown... this year it was absolutely terrible.   Sun was just a red ball in the sky.  And even places like Missoula and Butte are very brown all summer.   

[TT-SEA]

A couple things. Spring once we got past March was not that bad down here. Pretty much average temps and slightly above average precip. This is the 5th warm/hot summer in a row Salem and points south. It gets a little old. 

 

As your sons would have noticed, things REALLY dry out up here, even in the foothills. I was up by Packwood and the entrance to Rainier a few weeks ago and things stay much greener up that way. 

 

They did not mention anything about being brown... they just raved about Silver Falls though.  

[Phil]

I'm with Andrew.

 

Many times over the last 4-5 summers, I've sat hunkered inside my house here, watching trees and undergrowth die, loath to go outside because of heat that's worse than L.A.'s and air quality that's worse than L.A.'s, and wondered: "I scrimped and saved and plotted and planned for decades to escape L.A. so I could come up here to this???"

 

For those of you who love hot, sunny summers and wish the PNW could be like this all the time, I recommend L.A.

I don't think there are many places in the US with nicer summers than the PNW, not to mention the hills and scenery. I just visited Seattle in the middle of a warm pattern, and it was beautiful even compared to a "cool" summer day around here.

 

Unless you want to live on Hippa Island or somewhere right next to Lake Superior, I think the coastal PNW is the best summer climate in the USA.

[wx_statman]

That's what I mean. These are not the summers I grew up with. Sure we had heatwaves and such, but the marine influence Summer 2013-17 has been almost non-existent. I don't know if it is just cyclical, or if it is something like a new normal... But It has really been harsh. Like I said I would take a warm summer climate if it came with some thundershowers and green like they have in the upper midwest. Maine would be amazing or Northern Michigan. I have looked at property there and I could buy a decent home and quite a bit of acreage in those places with the cash equity in my home if I were to sell. 

 

It's only going to get worse here, if we're to believe current projections. Drier summers with more persistent hot weather. 

[TT-SEA]

I can deal with the smoke. 

 

Smoke is the worst aspect in my opinion.   It drives me crazy.   So gross.   

 

Its very dry here now... but it still looks gorgeous on a sunny day with no smoke like today.   

[crf450ish]

92 HERE AND SMOKEY......

[TT-SEA]

92 HERE AND SMOKEY......

 

I am dreading the offshore flow coming up.   That smoke is all coming back.   

 

Normally I love offshore flow.   

[Front Ranger]

I think we should all move to Kennewick.

 

And then...

 

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day...

 

[crf450ish]

I am dreading the offshore flow coming up.   That smoke is all coming back.   

 

Normally I love offshore flow.   

It's been a roller coaster here this summer in regard to the smoke pollution. It hung around for the majority of July and then went away for a week and a half and its been back since, sometimes heavy, sometimes light and high in the sky. Nevertheless, its been nice and dry and perfect water sports weather...

 

I'm ready for fall though. Ready for the crisp breezes and brisk mornings and evenings. 

[Front Ranger]

That's what I mean. These are not the summers I grew up with. Sure we had heatwaves and such, but the marine influence Summer 2013-17 has been almost non-existent. I don't know if it is just cyclical, or if it is something like a new normal... But It has really been harsh. Like I said I would take a warm summer climate if it came with some thundershowers and green like they have in the upper midwest. Maine would be amazing or Northern Michigan. I have looked at property there and I could buy a decent home and quite a bit of acreage in those places with the cash equity in my home if I were to sell. 

 

It's been different, warmer than normal. But you're gonna have a tough time convincing most people that 80s during the day, 50s at night, with low humidity is "harsh".

 

The complaints about dryness and everything turning brown I can understand better.

[Deweydog]

Hey, that freak doesn't like hot summers. Get 'em guys!!!!!

Like with Tim, it's repetition that counts!

[Front Ranger]

It's only going to get worse here, if we're to believe current projections. Drier summers with more persistent hot weather. 

 

Except when it's also wetter. The most solid evidence I can find of AGW altering localized patterns is an increase in persistent blocking patterns and rainy patterns becoming rainier.

[Phil]

That's what I mean. These are not the summers I grew up with. Sure we had heatwaves and such, but the marine influence Summer 2013-17 has been almost non-existent. I don't know if it is just cyclical, or if it is something like a new normal... But It has really been harsh. Like I said I would take a warm summer climate if it came with some thundershowers and green like they have in the upper midwest. Maine would be amazing or Northern Michigan. I have looked at property there and I could buy a decent home and quite a bit of acreage in those places with the cash equity in my home if I were to sell.

Prolonged heatwaves are almost non-existent up in Maine/Michigan, especially near the water, so I'm with you on wanting to live there at some point.

 

In terms of scenery and landscape, Maine is actually quite similar to the PNW, with lots of conifers, hills, and foggy days. The obvious difference is that, with the offshore flow aloft, they get plenty of storms and sharp continental fronts throughout the year, even during ridgy patterns, and those prolonged inversions are confined to the summer, rather than the winter, since the atmosphere is usually too turbulent and chaotic to sustain them from October through April.

 

Those winters will test you, though. They're long, frigid, snowy, and very windy. Not friendly for your heating bills unless you're okay with a wood stove, lol.

[crf450ish]

To be honest the last 4-5 summers have gotten me to the point where I am almost ready to move because of how terrible they have been. Maybe somewhere more coastal or higher in elevation. 

Forks

Aberdeen

Tillamook

Astoria

Seaside

 

 

All places I'd never live because of the lack of great summer weather IMO. 

[BLI snowman]

That's what I mean. These are not the summers I grew up with. Sure we had heatwaves and such, but the marine influence Summer 2013-17 has been almost non-existent. I don't know if it is just cyclical, or if it is something like a new normal... But It has really been harsh. Like I said I would take a warm summer climate if it came with some thundershowers and green like they have in the upper midwest. Maine would be amazing or Northern Michigan. I have looked at property there and I could buy a decent home and quite a bit of acreage in those places with the cash equity in my home if I were to sell. 

 

Weren't you a kid in 1990? 1992? 1994? 

 

A lot of pretty toasty Willamette Valley summers when you were growing up. 

[wx_statman]

Except when it's also wetter. The most solid evidence I can find of AGW altering localized patterns is an increase in persistent blocking patterns and rainy patterns becoming rainier.

 

The projections for the PNW specifically call for drier summers. The winters are supposed to become rainier. Like you said, the individual rainy patterns (specifically the larger AR events) are supposed to dump more rainfall in the future. 

[Phil]

Except when it's also wetter. The most solid evidence I can find of AGW altering localized patterns is an increase in persistent blocking patterns and rainy patterns becoming rainier.

What increase in blocking? We've been trending consistently into a +PNA/+annular mode (NAM/SAM) dominated system state through the last 400yrs. Since the 1980s, the annular modes have been in their most positive state since at least 1250AD.

[TT-SEA]

The UP of Michigan is seriously backwards.   Andrew probably would like that though.   

[TT-SEA]

It's been different, warmer than normal. But you're gonna have a tough time convincing most people that 80s during the day, 50s at night, with low humidity is "harsh".

 

The complaints about dryness and everything turning brown I can understand better.

 

My son was just saying yesterday how much better the trees look now at this point in late summer compared to the last couple years... likely because of the insanely wet spring.

 

The grass will always turn brown in the summer around here.   That happens many times even in Minnesota.  

 

And calling our summer 'harsh' is not very accurate by most people's standards.   Our winter's are usually not harsh either. 

[Phil]

The projections for the PNW specifically call for drier summers. The winters are supposed to become rainier. Like you said, the individual rainy patterns (specifically the larger AR events) are supposed to dump more rainfall in the future.

These sort of "projections" are (mostly) worthless. The vast majority of them have, and will continue to bust woefully, for a slew of mechanistic reasons that would require 100+ pages to thoroughly explain.

 

In fact, the relationship(s) between global circulation and temperature can completely reverse, without any warning or precursors signaling. It has happened repeatedly through and beyond the Holocene, most recently during the transition from the MWP into the LIA.

[crf450ish]

@Phil, I want to hear more about your thoughts on the -PNA/-NAO/-PDO and how it correlates to our climate here in the PNW. 

[TT-SEA]

The streaks live on!

 

SEA up to 72 and PDX up to 75 at 3 p.m.

 

Harsh!    Just brutal.  

[Phil]

[begin rant]

 

-The transient system response, overall sensitivity, and feedback response(s) to any radiative forcings/stimuli can easily reverse with sufficient change to the relevant boundary states/quasi-stable modes of operation through which equilibration is achieved.

 

- The system temperature can (and often does) operate fluidly and independent of the external/radiative forcing integral, through changes to the circulatory and hydrological processes that govern the heat/mechanical budgets.

 

- This can easily happen within a day. Within an hour. Within a minute. It can happen without any warning. And it could easily relegate all climate projections to the ever growing trash bin of history.

 

[End rant]