August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[BLI snowman]

Debris clouds could help out early next week.

 

Pretty convective pattern starting Tuesday.

[wx_statman]

Speaking of September cloud shockers, anyone remember 9/15/2008? Wasted 24.4C @ 850 and 95 degree forecasts with a bunch of convective debris. Only managed 89 at PDX while Paradise Lodge reached 86.

 

Couldn't have timed it any worse as the clouds moved in between 1-2 pm:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/2008/9/15/DailyHistory.html

[Deweydog]

Speaking of September cloud shockers, anyone remember 9/15/2008? Wasted 24.4C @ 850 and 95 degree forecasts with a bunch of convective debris. Only managed 89 at PDX while Paradise Lodge reached 86.

 

Couldn't have timed it any worse as the clouds moved in between 1-2 pm:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/2008/9/15/DailyHistory.html

The lack of a surfacing downslope didn't help either.

[Jesse]

Looks like they pulled off an 80/60.

 

#runawaywarmth

I should have gone with 80. Your cool bias threw me off!

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, east and south Bozeman is definitely the area you want to be. ~25" of yearly precip and pretty evenly spaced out throughout the year. Helps that half of that falls in the form of snow.

 

You really should take a visit out here sometime in the winter or even late spring. I'm sure your viewpoint of Montana would change exponentially!

 

IMG_0148.JPG

DSC_0069.JPG

 

 

We used to drive to MN twice a year... once in the summer and once at Christmas.   

 

I do remember some absolute brutal cold and wind and lots of blowing snow and hundreds of miles of ice covered freeway (the result of blowing snow) glistening in the sun on one particular trip.   I assume it was pretty but it was very stressful.   

[Deweydog]

I should have gone with 80. Your cool bias threw me off!

Sometimes we just get lucky. Better than sitting in the muck for most of the day after sitting in the smokey muck the last few days.

[wx_statman]

The lack of a surfacing downslope didn't help either.

 

Nothing went right that day it seems.

[Deweydog]

Nothing went wrong that day it seems.

Fixed.

[TT-SEA]

Sometimes we just get lucky. Better than sitting in the muck for most of the day after sitting in the smokey muck the last few days.

 

I appreciated the relatively quick burn off today more than usual... blue sky and mountains clearly visible.  

[Jesse]

Sometimes we just get lucky. Better than sitting in the muck for most of the day after sitting in the smokey muck the last few days.

Your opinion. A cooler, mostly cloudy day would have been a nice change of pace. Especially considering we are about to descend back into the 6th level of hell.

[wx_statman]

Fixed.

 

Pandering to the cold-voting demographic. Gotta do it sometimes.

[Deweydog]

Your opinion. A cooler, mostly cloudy day would have been a nice change of pace. Especially conserving we are about to descend back into the 6th level of hell.

Sometimes we just get unlucky.

[wx_statman]

Your opinion. A cooler, mostly cloudy day would have been a nice change of pace. Especially conserving we are about to descend back into the 6th level of hell.

 

80 made sense today given that we started at 17C up above and cleared out by 1pm. Compare to 10C on 8/24.

[Deweydog]

Pandering to the cold-voting demographic. Gotta do it sometimes.

Jesse's feeling abused. It's nice to extend an opinion branch of peace once in a while.

[wx_statman]

Jesse's feeling abused. It's nice to extend an opinion branch of peace once in a while.

 

I like to cook with opinion oil. A little off topic, but yeah.

[Front Ranger]

It's been another historically hot summer here. We have seen a string of about five of them now. The idiots that don't like hot summers here aren't too happy about it. It isn't rocket science.

 

 

Not quite. 2014, 2015, and 2017. Obviously an impressively warm stretch of summers, but not a string of five historically warm summers.

[Jesse]

Not quite. 2014, 2015, and 2017. Obviously an impressively warm stretch of summers, but not a string of five historically warm summers.

2013 and 2016 both also featured periods of historic warmth.

[Front Ranger]

79 at PDX today. Fears of the 75 stretch being fractured have been soothed.

 

Looks like PDX will fall short of warmest month on record.

[Jesse]

Jesse's feeling abused. It's nice to extend an opinion branch of peace once in a while.

Give me a break. This last month has been awful weather wise and I've hardly made a peep. Don't try to turn me into some sort of battered caricature just because Tim managed to lure me into a troll war about Montana today.

[Front Ranger]

2013 and 2016 both also featured periods of historic warmth.

 

Sure, but you were talking about historically hot summers overall, referencing 2017 as the second hottest on record at PDX.

 

FWIW, it looks like 2017 will end up at #4 or #5 warmest on record at OLM.

[TT-SEA]

The Canadian Wildfire Smoke Prediction System has actually been very accurate since I started following it about a month ago.  Unfortunately it only goes out 48 hours.

 

Here is Friday afternoon on the 00Z run... still decent up here.  

 

[ShawniganLake]

The elephant hill fire continues to be very active in the BC Cariboo. It jumped the fire guard last night and travelled about 6 miles to the NE. Passed about 1.5-2 miles east of our Cabin.

 

Here is a live webcam view at Sheridan lake that just happens to be a view of the fire.

[James Jones]

Looks like PDX will fall short of warmest month on record.

 

What are the warmest 40 day stretches on record? I bet 7/31 to 9/8 will be up there, if not #1.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX will fall short of warmest month on record.

They will come pretty D**n close. It was a good call considering it was only mid-month.

 

Warmest August on record is as good as done.

[Jesse]

Sure, but you were talking about historically hot summers overall, referencing 2017 as the second hottest on record at PDX.

 

FWIW, it looks like 2017 will end up at #4 or #5 warmest on record at OLM.

You are nitpicking Jared.

[TT-SEA]

Give me a break. This last month has been awful weather wise and I've hardly made a peep. Don't try to turn me into some sort of battered caricature just because Tim managed to lure me into a troll war about Montana today.

 

Dude... it was very nice overall from August 11-25.    I was just looking at PDX and most days were pretty close to normal.   You are now combining Aug 1-10 and Sept 1-8 (?) and everything in between into one bucket of Jesse hell.   But that is not accurate.   And don't forget that July was basically a pleasant-fest.  

[wx_statman]

Not quite. 2014, 2015, and 2017. Obviously an impressively warm stretch of summers, but not a string of five historically warm summers.

 

FWIW, 2016 had 6 days reach 98+ at PDX. Tied with 1977 and 1981 for 2nd most all time.

 

Only 1988 had more with 7 days.

[stuffradio]

I should make a best of forum for The Weather Forums for some posts, there are some great ones in here tonight!

[Front Ranger]

You are nitpicking Jared.

 

You made an inaccurate statement. 

[Jesse]

Dude... it was very nice overall from August 11-25. I was just looking at PDX and most days were pretty close to normal. You are now combining Aug 1-10 and Sept 1-8 (?) and everything in between into one bucket of Jesse hell. But that is not accurate. And don't forget that July was basically a pleasant-fest.

It would be nice to get through a summer without an historic heat event, record hot month, setting new warmth benchmarks, etc one of these years. Just my druthers.

[Front Ranger]

FWIW, 2016 had 6 days reach 98+ at PDX. Tied with 1977 and 1981 for 2nd most all time.

 

Only 1988 had more with 7 days.

 

Nice stat. But historically hot summers are generally called that based on the average temp JJA. Which is why Jesse referenced 2017 being the second hottest summer on record at PDX.

[Front Ranger]

They will come pretty d**n close. It was a good call considering it was only mid-month.

 

Warmest August on record is as good as done.

 

Ok. I told you it would be an uphill, against-the-odds battle, despite the super hot start. Close only counts in horse shoes, hand grenades, and government work.

[Jesse]

You made an inaccurate statement.

No I didn't. You are just flatironing as usual.

[TT-SEA]

It would be nice to get through a summer without an historic heat event, record hot month, setting new warmth benchmarks, etc one of these years. Just my druthers.

 

Fair enough.

 

But like I do when its raining for months on end... focus on the nice periods.   And there have been long stretches of nice weather this summer when it was not historically hot or smoky.   

 

July was just +0.8 at PDX.  

[James Jones]

FWIW, 2016 had 6 days reach 98+ at PDX. Tied with 1977 and 1981 for 2nd most all time.

 

Only 1988 had more with 7 days.

 

Question for the statman... what are the warmest 40 day stretches on record for PDX? Does this year's 7/31 to 9/8 have a chance for #1?

[Jesse]

Nice stat. But historically hot summers are generally called that based on the average temp JJA. Which is why Jesse referenced 2017 being the second hottest summer on record at PDX.

Don't speak for me. I referenced it as an example to illustrate the kind of historic warmth we have seen this summer. The previous four summers saw different kinds of historic warmth. There are many ways a summer can experience historic warmth without JJA simply being top warm.

[Front Ranger]

No I didn't. You are just flatironing as usual.

 

There were not 5 historically hot summers in a row. You said there were. Not sure how that's accurate. 

 

You hyperbolized. It's ok...it happens.

[Phil]

The Canadian Wildfire Smoke Prediction System has actually been very accurate since I started following it about a month ago. Unfortunately it only goes out 48 hours.

 

Here is Friday afternoon on the 00Z run... still decent up here.

 

Jesse!!! Montana!!!

[Jesse]

Ok. I told you it would be an uphill, against-the-odds battle, despite the super hot start. Close only counts in horse shoes, hand grenades, and government work.

You're a ******* genius!!!

 

Even so, it came much closer than you were probably guessing at the time. I should have tried to squeeze some concrete numbers out of you, but that can often be hard to do. Phil might get ahold of them and be a meaniepants about it if you're wrong.

[Front Ranger]

Don't speak for me. I referenced it as an example to illustrate the kind of historic warmth we have seen this summer. The previous four summers saw different kinds of historic warmth. There are many ways a summer can experience historic warmth without JJA simply being top warm.

 

 

Good lord, man, chill. You literally referenced 2017 as the second hottest summer in PDX history, in that very context. That wasn't speaking for you, that was pointing out what you said.

 

The rest of what you're saying is subjective, but measuring historic warm summers by the actual temperature of those summers is not.