Niko Posted August 25, 2017 Report Share Posted August 25, 2017 Dec '13 thru Mar '14 all four months I hit dbl digits in snowfall, with (10) plow-able events of 4+ same day totals. 80% of days during MET winter were freezing or below so we maintained deep snow pack for weeks and weeks. Truly amazing winter for mby! Even 08-09's similar snow total couldn't keep the depths as the temps did what they always do in SMI, they bounced up and down. Im tellin ya, that Winter is for the record books. Everything fell into place so easily for snowstorms and arctic air masses to occur. Every 2 to 4 days, my area would receive accumulating snows. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted August 25, 2017 Report Share Posted August 25, 2017 Im tellin ya, that Winter is for the record books. Everything fell into place so easily for snowstorms and arctic air masses to occur. Every 2 to 4 days, my area would receive accumulating snows. Meanwhile in Nebraska... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 25, 2017 Report Share Posted August 25, 2017 Meanwhile in Nebraska...Know how you feel man. Except for an inch or so last year I haven't seen much in the last 3 seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 25, 2017 Report Share Posted August 25, 2017 Meanwhile in Nebraska... I know you guys had a few fu***d up Winters. Lets see how this Winter goes for ya. Hopefully, better!!!!! I.E, here in SMI, last 2 winters were not good as well, especially last Winter. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 25, 2017 Report Share Posted August 25, 2017 Meanwhile in Nebraska... NE is too big..lol A lot like MI though, in that the populated region in the SE part of the state has worst-climo for big snows. As you go N and/or W your odds increase. I remember two yrs ago some parts of NE had that 18-20" bliz while we got nothing close in SMI. I know you guys had a few fu***d up Winters. Lets see how this Winter goes for ya. Hopefully, better!!!!! I.E, here in SMI, last 2 winters were not good as well, especially last Winter. Couldn't agree more! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted August 25, 2017 Report Share Posted August 25, 2017 NE is too big..lol A lot like MI though, in that the populated region in the SE part of the state has worst-climo for big snows. As you go N and/or W your odds increase. I remember two yrs ago some parts of NE had that 18-20" bliz while we got nothing close in SMI. Couldn't agree more! Tbh I think we're actually in a pretty good spot, but we have just been REALLY unlucky. If you look at storm systems that come through during other seasons, if they were to happen in the winter, we'd get pummeled. I could be wrong, but again, a lot of it comes down to temperatures, dry air, ratios, etc. In 2010, we were the prime zone, and we had monstrous totals, and I think that alone disproved the theory of Nebraska's suck zone. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 25, 2017 Report Share Posted August 25, 2017 Tbh I think we're actually in a pretty good spot, but we have just been REALLY unlucky. If you look at storm systems that come through during other seasons, if they were to happen in the winter, we'd get pummeled. I could be wrong, but again, a lot of it comes down to temperatures, dry air, ratios, etc. In 2010, we were the prime zone, and we had monstrous totals, and I think that alone disproved the theory of Nebraska's suck zone.00-01, 03-04, and 09-10 all prove that we have the ability to get truly Midwestern snow amounts. We just are the most unlucky area for snowfall. People North of us in Norfolk finished above average last winter! 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 25, 2017 Report Share Posted August 25, 2017 00-01, 03-04, and 09-10 all prove that we have the ability to get truly Midwestern snow amounts. We just are the most unlucky area for snowfall. People North of us in Norfolk finished above average last winter! And totally on the back of a single 10-day period in Dec, so did I. Thinking ahead to what looks likely to be an early autumn, here's what I have for recent examples of similar seasons and how they played out: '76-77 = earliest on record? Winter was Nov-Jan culminating with the GL's LES bliz for Buffalo, and most belts.'77-78 = The early part of this historic GL's winter focused on the NW flow LES belts, where it was piling up by mid November. It just got better from there and lasted through Feb! MOA(super)B's in January!!'89-90 = the December to remember for LES belts and just bitter cold inland locales. Winter was Mid-Nov through Feb. Northern GL's bliz to kick-off on 11/15 was awesome'95-96 = regular LES squalls started in Oct. By Nov major snowstorms and a bliz on Vet's Day joined in the party. Winter was Nov til mid-Feb. In NMI, Halloween was like Turkey Day, and TD was like Christmas. 6" on Christmas Eve brought depth OTG to 40" at my place up north.'00-01 = the December to remember even outside of the LES belts. Winter was mid-Nov to the New Year, with little after that. But snow depths across SMI were amazing and lasted well into Jan! The Dec bliz for the Lwr Lakes before Christmas is a once a life-time event. Per Skilling we will see that on avg only once in 50 yrs. As mentioned, we've had quite a run of early winters across Lwr Mich since 2000-01, but none earlier than the above list. Honorable mentions would go to: 04-05, 07-08. 08-09, & 09-10. With most recent having been 8 yrs ago, we might just be due.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2017 @ Okwx, CFS out to Thanksgiving week and it's flashing snow down your way! FWIW, the day to day model runs I'm seeing are reminiscent to what I saw the model flash back in 2013. As a reminder, this isn't being advertised as something that should be taken verbatim. I think that the idea of a fast start to winter is on the table though. Not sure when but if the model is still showing this in October and so are the other seasonal models, then I'll have more confidence. http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/27/basis00/namk/weas/17112000_2700.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2017 Alaska and parts of the Yukon Territories getting hit with multiple rounds of snow to close out August and open September...even so, Russia/Siberia region gets their taste of #Snow... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 27, 2017 Report Share Posted August 27, 2017 @ Okwx, CFS out to Thanksgiving week and it's flashing snow down your way! FWIW, the day to day model runs I'm seeing are reminiscent to what I saw the model flash back in 2013. As a reminder, this isn't being advertised as something that should be taken verbatim. I think that the idea of a fast start to winter is on the table though. Not sure when but if the model is still showing this in October and so are the other seasonal models, then I'll have more confidence. http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/27/basis00/namk/weas/17112000_2700.gifOverwhelming theme in regards to analogs is that winter will start sooner rather than later. That would be incredible to see a white thanksgiving. Not getting hopes up but 2000-01 is looking pretty solid as an analog. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Updated back in July, but figured I post it to get the Winter hype going......... Winter haters....might want to rethink about going south this Winter! http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/07/el_nino_a_no-go_this_winter_wh.html Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Overwhelming theme in regards to analogs is that winter will start sooner rather than later. That would be incredible to see a white thanksgiving. Not getting hopes up but 2000-01 is looking pretty solid as an analog. Amwx poster who lives in the Huron Mnts in the UP says it's been a cold summer and colors are really hitting there. He expects PEAK in 2 wks. D**n, talk about a sudden season flip! Geez Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Still early, but I like the October trends from the CFSv2 where the warm/cold SST's are being depicted in the N PAC and the increasingly stronger La Nina signal. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Still early, but I like the October trends from the CFSv2 where the warm/cold SST's are being depicted in the N PAC and the increasingly stronger La Nina signal. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd2.gifIf that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies.Your going to need that blocking to really build across the Arctic or SSW's to see any favorable sustained cold. I don't think it could be any worse than last year! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Still early, but I like the October trends from the CFSv2 where the warm/cold SST's are being depicted in the N PAC and the increasingly stronger La Nina signal. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd2.gif If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies. @ Tom: Not sure we want a full-blown Nina do we? Chicago may do better in those, but not sure SMI would. @ Okwx: Which portion is "too far east"? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies. A strong SST gradient in PAC mostly caused the very wet Winter in California and the PAC last Fall and Winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 @ Tom: Not sure we want a full-blown Nina do we? Chicago may do better in those, but not sure SMI would. @ Okwx: Which portion is "too far east"?A moderate (-1.0C) Nina isn't all that bad to be honest and I think it would create a more favorable storm track for many of us and keep more cold into the U.S. In terms of weak Nina's, you will have to fight that SE ridge and unless you have blocking (which we didn't have last year), it may be difficult to have sustained cold. So, a mod Nina makes more sense in terms of making next season a winner. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 A strong SST gradient in PAC mostly caused the very wet Winter in California and the PAC last Fall and Winter.Very true, we may very well see that again if the PAC ignites. We'll see how it all unfolds this Autumn. I'm thinking the Aleutian Low will be very strong again this season. Just not to comfortable saying where it's location will be in the NE PAC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Very true, we may very well see that again if the PAC ignites. We'll see how it all unfolds this Autumn. I'm thinking the Aleutian Low will be very strong again this season. Just not to comfortable saying where it's location will be in the NE PAC.If the West sees a another wet winter and east of the Rockies see a very cold winter, I wonder how many big snowstorms you might see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Snowcover is above average so far in the NH. https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Today's 12z Euro run caught my attention and may hold a clue to the behavior of the PV this Autumn/Winter. Maybe the state of the QBO is already aiding this development, I'm not quite sure, but it is interesting. Normally, you would see Polar vorticity over the Pole but if you take a look at today's 12z Euro run and the 00z EPS run from last night, clearly, these vorticity maxes are displaced off the Pole. You can point out to distinct locations of interest and one being on this side of the Pole near the Archipelago/Western Greenland. Meanwhile, the other across the Pole near Russia/Siberia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 I am truly hoping for a chilly Autumn and a cold start to Winter and turning progressively very cold along with snowstorms, some massive. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 A moderate (-1.0C) Nina isn't all that bad to be honest and I think it would create a more favorable storm track for many of us and keep more cold into the U.S. In terms of weak Nina's, you will have to fight that SE ridge and unless you have blocking (which we didn't have last year), it may be difficult to have sustained cold. So, a mod Nina makes more sense in terms of making next season a winner. Yeah, I think I had my ENSO states confused (like Ma Nature last winter). Not sure the exact value of the Nina in 2007-08, but we rode the line of "too warm for snow" but it was wet and active if not terribly good for snowcover longevity peeps. I'd take that again in a minute for Marshall. However, I think our friend, Mr. -QBO will lend us a hand with blocking across Canada and a "boost" to cold plunges so that we get a result more like my stream line in red. As you said, helping more folks on here to get in the action. I think 07-08 was not good for many south of I-80. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 I am truly hoping for a chilly Autumn and a cold start to Winter and turning progressively very cold along with snowstorms, some massive. When did you come to MI again? What's the earliest winter you remember here? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Yeah, I think I had my ENSO states confused (like Ma Nature last winter). Not sure the exact value of the Nina in 2007-08, but we rode the line of "too warm for snow" but it was wet and active if not terribly good for snowcover longevity peeps. I'd take that again in a minute for Marshall. However, I think our friend, Mr. -QBO will lend us a hand with blocking across Canada and a "boost" to cold plunges so that we get a result more like my stream line in red. As you said, helping more folks on here to get in the action. I think 07-08 was not good for many south of I-80. 20170831 LaNina edit.PNGHere are the ONI values back in 2007-2008: You can see it was a moderate Nina...in fact, we are trending that way on the CFSv2... NDJ: -1.3DJF: -1.4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Here are the ONI values back in 2007-2008: You can see it was a moderate Nina...in fact, we are trending that way on the CFSv2... Yeah, I guess it was. I remember GRR's graphic saying that Nina was a lock for wet, the temps could make that majority rain instead of snow. We were fortunate with most storms taking a track just far enough south to deliver the white gold. Some storms like the NYE "sneak attack storm" Detroit was literally the dividing line between slop south and 17" north. I think Niko's place made out decent on that one. A little bit surprised the 07-08 values were that low tbh. I'm remembering JB saying 08-09 was the "strong" Nina. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Yeah, I guess it was. I remember GRR's graphic saying that Nina was a lock for wet, the temps could make that majority rain instead of snow. We were fortunate with most storms taking a track just far enough south to deliver the white gold. Some storms like the NYE "sneak attack storm" Detroit was literally the dividing line between slop south and 17" north. I think Niko's place made out decent on that one. A little bit surprised the 07-08 values were that low tbh. I'm remembering JB saying 08-09 was the "strong" Nina.That is our gold track. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Today's 12z Euro run caught my attention and may hold a clue to the behavior of the PV this Autumn/Winter. Maybe the state of the QBO is already aiding this development, I'm not quite sure, but it is interesting. Normally, you would see Polar vorticity over the Pole but if you take a look at today's 12z Euro run and the 00z EPS run from last night, clearly, these vorticity maxes are displaced off the Pole. You can point out two distinct locations of interest and one being on this side of the Pole near the Archipelago/Western Greenland. Meanwhile, the other across the Pole near Russia/Siberia.Isn't this displacement what made 2013-14 so cold over the Eastern CONUS? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Isn't this displacement what made 2013-14 so cold over the Eastern CONUS?Yes, indeed, among other things as well. I remember early on seeing strong autumn low's spinning in this general area up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Yes, indeed, among other things as well. I remember early on seeing strong autumn low's spinning in this general area up north.I don't want an exact copy of 2013-14. It was either brutally cold or record warm here, no in between. Little snow too. But a 2013-14 setup with a mod niña could mean a really good Winter here. We'll see, but I'm encouraged that this Winter could bring at least 2015-16 (It was good here) snow totals here again. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Yes, indeed, among other things as well. I remember early on seeing strong autumn low's spinning in this general area up north.Oddly though, the deep system 11/17/13 was a complete warm storm! Not so much as a fringe of cold or snow that you would expect in the northern lakes by that date. Totally went against the grain of what followed beginning in December. That had to be frustrating for peeps in the UP to have such a strong storm take that track and get nada flakes! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 My temps are already starting to fall into the upper 40s. Its gonna be a chilly one. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Here is the latest CanSIPS 3-month means for Autumn & Winter... Autumn...you could argue the the model is somewhat seeing presence of a west coast ridge/eastern CONUS trough... Winter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Noteable trend favoring a cooler equatorial PAC overall....little late to the party??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Thumbs down @ Cansips. Yikes. why can't these long range models get on the same pg? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Thumbs down @ Cansips. Yikes. why can't these long range models get on the same pg? CanSIPS has been pretty awful gauging the pattern late Summer. I think the CFSv2/JMA have been by far the better of the climate models 1-2 months out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 A year ago at this time, everyone from WxBell to these guys were onboard with a Nina style winter and it was all looking so good for MI. LOL at Ma Nature and her wicked curve balls. Still shaking my head on how badly this was missed. She'll have the last laugh, even in this day and age. I do feel the odds are way better that we get our Nina style winter we were denied last year. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 20160903 Winter 2016-17 Fcast-temps.PNG20160903 Winter 2016-17 Fcast-Snowfall.PNG A year ago at this time, everyone from WxBell to these guys were onboard with a Nina style winter and it was all looking so good for MI. LOL at Ma Nature and her wicked curve balls. Still shaking my head on how badly this was missed. She'll have the last laugh, even in this day and age. I do feel the odds are way better that we get our Nina style winter we were denied last year. How frustrated was that, indeed. I gave them a nice spit in the face for forcasting Bul*Sh**t. Ofc, this year they will say a mild Winter and we end up getting a harsh one. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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