September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Absolutely. Not gonna be even close to a record warm month most places when all is said and done.

Long ten days to go. Don't get too cocky!

[TT-SEA]

Long ten days to go. Don't get too cocky!

 

I doubt the first 5 of those days even get to normal though.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Sopping wet and turning lush PNW green again here... like most of the region.  

 

Meanwhile in Victoria:

 

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile in Victoria:

 

 

 

Meanwhile in North Bend...

 

[Front Ranger]

I doubt the first 5 of those days even get to normal though.  

 

Exactly. And normal continues to sink lower. 

[BLI snowman]

Exactly. And normal continues to sink lower. 

 

Top 10 cold September possible????

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Meanwhile in North Bend...

 

 

Looks about the same as it did all summer there, that area seems immune to dry weather.

[TT-SEA]

Looks about the same as it did all summer there, that area seems immune to dry weather.

Some yellow trees now.

 

And we had very little rain for 3 months. And it was much hotter here than there most of that time.

[stuffradio]

I got ~1 mm of rain here tonight, nothing to write home about.

[stuffradio]

Here's the difference made by all that rain we got a couple days ago in the Southwest. Look at Vancouver Island and particularly Victoria!

 

[wx_statman]

I'd take a repeat of that fall and winter...

 

Beautiful foggy evening out there.

 

That repeat train can stop at 11/19, and I would be plenty satisfied.

[Front Ranger]

Top 10 cold September possible????

 

No. Maybe October.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile in Victoria:

 

 

WTF is going on there?  It looks like everything is absolutely dead.

[TT-SEA]

WTF is going on there? It looks like everything is absolutely dead.

Tragic summmer there... rain stopped for a couple months with scorching hot highs in the 70s.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX snuck down to 48 or 49 earlier this evening.

[ShawniganLake]

WTF is going on there? It looks like everything is absolutely dead.

That's not a real pic of victoria.

[TT-SEA]

That's not a real pic of victoria.

For the record... the North Bend pic was very real.

[ShawniganLake]

For the record... the North Bend pic was very real.

I think parts of the island do tend to dry out faster as the bedrock is near the surface and some areas have very little topsoil. A lot of deciduous trees have turned brown and started dropping their leaves. You can clearly see the brown patches on the hillsides where there are clusters of Garry oak trees.

 

It was sunny and 64 here this afternoon. Quite a pleasant day.

[James Jones]

That repeat train can stop at 11/19, and I would be plenty satisfied.

 

Definitely an incredibly anomalous event. A major midwinter arctic blast that happened to occur in mid-November. The recurrence rate must be ridiculously low even in an LIA type climate regime. 

[wx_statman]

Definitely an incredibly anomalous event. A major midwinter arctic blast that happened to occur in mid-November. The recurrence rate must be ridiculously low even in an LIA type climate regime. 

 

Yeah, that event was a pretty incredible combination of different factors that came together. Arctic trough with 490 thicknesses and -43c at 500 hPa dives southward over NE Washington, pulled in by abnormally low pressures over the PNW...the trough/ULL then tried to eject eastward on the 13th which would have given us a two day event - something you would expect given out-of-season northerly CAA events during -ENSO (think mid-Feb 1956 or Nov 2010) - only to have another shortwave ride down from SE Alaska to pull the ULL back from Alberta and into NE Washington by the 14th. It was essentially a second Arctic outbreak stacked immediately after the first, demarcated by the start of gorge outflow early on the 13th at PDX. Up until that point we had only seen N/NW'erly CAA similar to Nov 2010 (no east winds at PDX for the duration), with similar longevity and temperatures. The shortwave riding southward then rammed the abnormally cold Arctic trough through the PNW and down into the Great Basin. It was this second, more traditional Arctic outbreak tapping into the abnormally cold column of the already-present arctic trough that produced the coldest temperatures, i.e the 13 at PDX, the -32 at Ukiah, the -14 at SLC, etc. To get either one of those "events" to occur before 11/15 would have been incredible. They got 'em stacked back-to-back in 1955 to make a week-long event. Probably not something we'll see again in our lives.

[wx_statman]

BTW, this is a really good read on the November 1955 cold wave:

 

ftp://ftp.library.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/mwr/083/mwr-083-11-0279.pdf

[snow_wizard]

Nearly every analog on the CPC site tonight led to major cold in the NW somewhere between mid Nov and early Jan.

 

It appears there is going to be another major trade wind burst over the ENSO regions right on the heels of the current one.  Looking likley this will be a major La Nina.

[crf450ish]

I predict we're going to see winters akin to those of the 60's through the early 80's over the next 15 years....

[TT-SEA]

I think parts of the island do tend to dry out faster as the bedrock is near the surface and some areas have very little topsoil. A lot of deciduous trees have turned brown and started dropping their leaves. You can clearly see the brown patches on the hillsides where there are clusters of Garry oak trees.

 

It was sunny and 64 here this afternoon. Quite a pleasant day.

 

Then its completely natural for that area and the trees are acclimated or will die off quickly in dry periods.  Its probably been happening for thousands of years there.   You can't expect the weather to be sopping wet year around so that that your trees growing in rock don't dry out.   

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF was quite ridgy and basically stays that way through the end of the run.   

 

And the 00Z ECMWF control run and the 00Z EPS are in agreement with the operational run.

 

In fact... the 00Z EPS is quite warm all the way through the 15-day period.  

 

Here is the 850mb temp mean for days 11-15 (and it still warm at day 15):

 

[Jesse]

The 00Z ECMWF was quite ridgy and basically stays that way through the end of the run.

 

And the 00Z ECMWF control run and the 00Z EPS are in agreement with the operational run.

 

In fact... the 00Z EPS is quite warm all the way through the 15-day period.

 

 

There is a pretty big drop in 850s from the 29th to the 30th.

[TT-SEA]

There is a pretty big drop in 850s from the 29th to the 30th.

 

Yeah... but the ridge pops right back.   Its a small dent on the 00Z runs.   Could easily change of course.

[Jesse]

Yeah... but the ridge pops right back. Its a small dent on the 00Z runs.

 

A drop from +16 to +6 or so between day 9-10. EPS and GFS like this too. Beyond that a lot of disagreement.

[TT-SEA]

A drop from +16 to +6 or so between day 9-10. EPS and GFS like this too. Beyond that a lot of disagreement.

 

I think the 500mb pattern tells the overall story better.   Again... this is just the 00Z run but the control and EPS agree.   

 

Looks like a trough is coming at day 9 but its a glancing blow... and the ridge pops back up.      

 

Day 9 

 

 

 

Day 10

 

[Jesse]

I think the 500mb pattern tells the overall story better. Again... this is just the 00Z run but the control and EPS agree.

 

Looks like a trough is coming at day 9 but its a glancing blow... and the ridge pops back up.

 

Day 9

 

 

Day 10

 

 

I just looked at the same maps myself. They also show a big drop in 850s, which probably tells a better story of what it will do here at the surface.

 

Why do you host so many images, btw. It makes it really strange going back and reading old threads. There will be a post where you are talking about a huge rain event at day 5 and the map you posted will have changed to day 5 of the current runs, which show a dry pattern.

 

It would be a lot more interesting to the history of this forum if you posted actual images and didn't always host them.

[TT-SEA]

I just looked at thes same maps myself. They also show a big drop in 850s, which probably tells a better story of what it will do here at the surface.

 

Why do you host so many images, btw. It makes it really strange going back and reading old threads. There will be a post where you are talking about a huge rain event at day 5 and the map you posted will have changed to day 5 of the current runs, which show a dry pattern.

 

It would be a lot more interesting to the history of this forum if you posted actual images and didn't always host them.

 

I think you are saying I should host more images which would lock it in instead of copying the image address from the model page which will change in the future.   This is very true and a good idea... it just comes down to being lazy.   

 

We are talking about two different things in the models.   The ECMWF and the control and EPS are ridgy runs.   And the EPS is warm right through day 15 except for a dent at day 9.   

 

You are focusing on the dent and saying it would break up the ridging.   That is very true.  

 

I feel like you expect nothing but ridging and take joy in any cold air intrusion... and I now expect nothing but troughing and I am surprised by a ECMWF and EPS run that is basically ridgy for the next 15 days.     

[TT-SEA]

When I host an image through this site... it never changes in the future:

 

https://postimages.org/

 

 

When I right click on a model image on a model site and select 'copy image address' and paste that into the image box in the forum... the image will change as the model changes.   Not good but its easy in the moment.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain

IMG_0936.JPG

2016

[Jesse]

I think you are saying I should host more images which would lock it in instead of copying the image address from the model page which will change in the future. This is very true and a good idea... it just comes down to being lazy.

 

 

Yes exactly. You probably post more maps than anyone else here by an order of magnitude. So going back through old threads I'm always sort of interested in what they said at range about events that ended up verifying (or not verifying). But yeah, often they will just show whatever the most recent run is at that day.

[TT-SEA]

Yes exactly. You probably post more maps than anyone else here by an order of magnitude. So going back through old threads I'm always sort of interested in what they said at range about events that ended up verifying (or not verifying). But yeah, often they will just show whatever the most recent run is at that day.

 

I fixed the ECWMF images above.   They will stay the same in the future now.   

 

Side note... I am forced to host WB images like the EPS map above and they have always been locked in.  

[Jesse]

I fixed the ECWMF images above. They will stay the same in the future now.

 

Side note... I am forced to host WB images like the EPS map above and they have always been locked in.

It's not a huge deal. I was looking back in the January 2017 thread the other day and it was just something I noticed, though.

[TT-SEA]

It's not a huge deal. I was looking back in the January 2017 thread the other day and it was just something I noticed, though.

 

I have noticed it many times as well.  

[ShawniganLake]

2016

Yes it is a depiction of a "jet extension" which occurred in 2016

[ShawniganLake]

Then its completely natural for that area and the trees are acclimated or will die off quickly in dry periods. Its probably been happening for thousands of years there. You can't expect the weather to be sopping wet year around so that that your trees growing in rock don't dry out.

Probably is true. But some rain now won't make them look lush and green like your backyard. They are done for the year.

 

Of course, I'm sure you realize the rain you get every year, including the last 2, is perfectly normal and has been occurring for thousands of years. It still seems to be a major concern in your life though.

[Jesse]

Probably is true. But some rain now won't make them look lush and green like your backyard. They are done for the year.

 

 

So are the ones that turn all rusty like that dead or just done for the season? I feel like I've seen them come back the following spring down here. Still, can't be good for the overall health of the trees and if it happened enough you would start to see some mortality, I would imagine.