james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Tomorrow is gonna be great. Temps in the 40s with the wind advisory continuing. Leaves will be flying everywhere.Here is DMX discussion for the weekend. Winter is coming fast!Little change to the Friday/Saturday forecast. The trough digs southand becomes highly amplified over the central CONUS. Highs only in the 30s/40s remain on track for Friday and blustery northwest windswill make temperatures feel even cooler. Still a chance we could seesome light rain/snow in Iowa in this time frame. The best moistureand lift will likely stay north of the surface low tracking acrosssouthern MN. 12z model runs advertise light snow as far south asDSM Saturday morning, but no mention was added to the forecast duequestions regarding dry air and run-to-run inconsistencies. Belownormal temperatures continue through the weekend as the upperlevel low slowly pushes east. A hard freeze and end to the growingseason may occur Fri/Sat nights as temps drop into the 20s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Looks like some technical difficulties with the 00z Euro run.. Now it's coming up. Just really late. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Flakes are flying near the Northwoods! Light snow is being reported just north of Duluth, MN.... Current conditions at Ely, Ely Municipal Airport (KELO)Lat: 47.82°NLon: 91.83°WElev: 1457ft.http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/nsn.pngLight Snow34°F1°C Humidity 100% Wind Speed NW 10 G 25 mph Barometer 29.82 in Dewpoint 34°F (1°C) Visibility 5.00 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 24 Oct 6:53 am CDT More Information:Local Forecast OfficeMore Local Wx3 Day HistoryMobile WeatherHourly Weather ForecastExtended Forecast for 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleather Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 I had been planning one last backpacking trip to the Boundary Waters during the 1st week of Nov. The first week looks out.... Second week might be ok.... I've got good enough gear for the temps, but hate snowshoeing! Flakes are flying near the Northwoods! Light snow is being reported just north of Duluth, MN.... Current conditions at Ely, Ely Municipal Airport (KELO) Lat: 47.82°NLon: 91.83°WElev: 1457ft.http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/nsn.pngLight Snow34°F1°CHumidity 100% Wind Speed NW 10 G 25 mph Barometer 29.82 in Dewpoint 34°F (1°C) Visibility 5.00 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 24 Oct 6:53 am CDTMore Information:Local Forecast OfficeMore Local Wx3 Day HistoryMobile WeatherHourly Weather ForecastExtended Forecast for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Currently at 49F with cloudy skies and breezy. No rain, although, roads are a bit damp from what I am seeing. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 I had been planning one last backpacking trip to the Boundary Waters during the 1st week of Nov. The first week looks out.... Second week might be ok.... I've got good enough gear for the temps, but hate snowshoeing!That's really far north! How long are you going up there for? Ya, you might need to pack the winter gear bud! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Just saw Gary Lezak's video this morning in his blog and he was showcasing the early part of the LRC and believes that the Oct 6th-7th system was the first storm of this year's pattern which we have touched on already. This may be the year where the Plains/Midwest/Lakes have a bountiful season of winter storms. So far, including today's GL's powerhouse storm, there have been 4 systems that hit the central CONUS with another Clipper later this week and we will only be 3 weeks into the new LRC pattern. He also mentioned, that this may be a shorter cycle around 45 days which is interesting. Basically, it means we may cycle through these systems quicker. All in all, I like where we are heading. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Over the last few runs, the NAM and GFS have been showing an interesting trend for the late week Clipper. Notice the shortwave that forms along the trailing cold front out near KC which rides up the boundary and phases with the northern energy. Quite interesting to see this evolve as it would encourage more moisture into the system and possibly stronger? May be a situation where the southern energy becomes the dominant player. Don't you just like seeing these last minute trends??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Over the last few runs, the NAM and GFS have been showing an interesting trend for the late week Clipper. Notice the shortwave that forms along the trailing cold front out near KC which rides up the boundary and phases with the northern energy. Quite interesting to see this evolve as it would encourage more moisture into the system and possibly stronger? May be a situation where the southern energy becomes the dominant player. Don't you just like seeing these last minute trends???Interesting! Wow i havent looked at the NAM since last winter lol. Ill take that L track all day long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Interesting! Wow i havent looked at the NAM since last winter lol.Ill take that L track all day long.The 00z GGEM did something similar and the southern wave became the dominant feature. Not only that, but this energy then pulls the Caribbean energy and bombs out over the eastern Lakes! Incredible if that transpires.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 The 00z GGEM did something similar and the southern wave became the dominant feature. Not only that, but this energy then pulls the Caribbean energy and bombs out over the eastern Lakes! Incredible if that transpires.... Crazy! Quite a different look than it was 24 hours ago! What do the precip maps look like on that NAM? Any snow flakes on the backside? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Crazy! Quite a different look than it was 24 hours ago!What do the precip maps look like on that NAM? Any snow flakes on the backside?Yes, in fact, both NAM and Euro show some snow for IA...I think I'll start a thread for this system later today. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102400/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_132.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Liking the looks of this system so far. The low flying overhead might cause some small issues, but nonetheless it looks like I may see flakes flying. What an incredible difference from last year. It would also appear that this will be the beginning off south Canada building up snowcover. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 @ Tom Whoa! at that GGEM While great for the LRC, one has to pause. Getting all these intense systems before snow time, is kinda like the Cubs scoring 15 runs in the first game of a double-header. You can hear the crowd mumbling "sheesh, save some for the 2nd half" With much being made of 74-75 analog, this looks to be exactly the kind of pattern that brought Detroit's Nov30-Dec01 historic 20" storm. Niko needs to be on guard over there! While officially DTW had 19.3", reports of some burbs like Sterling Heights hitting 21" were likely true. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 (edited) A forecast high of only 35F with 3-5" of snow is possible on Friday in Duluth, MN. Winter is coming! Edited October 24, 2017 by Thunder98 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Our problem is dry air. If we can get a sudden surge in moisture, we could be looking at light snow showers and maybe even some light accumulations. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 A forecast high of inly 35F with 3-5" of snow is possible on Friday in Duluth, MN. Winter is coming! Build that snow pack up north early! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 This is interesting. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Say it ain't Snow! 12z GFS coming around the idea of a system coming out of the SW around Halloween and the opening days of November. When the models said Nada, I said...look for it! This could be a tell tale sign of how November will play out. Let's hope the trends continue. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Say it ain't Snow! 12z GFS coming around the idea of a system coming out of the SW around Halloween and the opening days of November. When the models said Nada, I said...look for it! This could be a tell tale sign of how November will play out. Let's hope the trends continue. Denver looks to be pounded by lots of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 GFS a lil weaker with the late week clipper. Phasing issues possibly? Maybe the NAM & GGEM are phasing it more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jzuzphreek Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Holy macaroni! What a time to join the forum (see my intro post here)!! It looks like my area (St. Joseph, MO) could be in the mix! This is interesting. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nebraska_35.png Say it ain't Snow! 12z GFS coming around the idea of a system coming out of the SW around Halloween and the opening days of November. When the models said Nada, I said...look for it! This could be a tell tale sign of how November will play out. Let's hope the trends continue. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Holy macaroni! What a time to join the forum (see my intro post here)!! It looks like my area (St. Joseph, MO) could be in the mix! Welcome to the Forum! Great to hear we have a new member in the KC region. We do have a couple members down there that post on here but since the last couple of dud winters it's been rather quiet. Do you follow Gary Lezak by any chance? He's prob THE guy down there in terms of meteorologists. As for this winter, I have to agree, that this season is shaping up a lot better for those in your region. Don't hesitate to post or comment on here. The more the merrier! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 12z GEFS showing the uptick in qpf for the next system to keep an eye on in the extended...for what has been a constant storm train....choo choo! Looks cold! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 It's Happening!! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Might have to start a November thread soon as that month looks to start off cold and wintry as we will likely see some atmospheric fireworks during the opening week of next month. 12z GEFS...diving northern branch...phasing with southern stream??? Can we see a phased monster please to close out Oct and open Novem---brrrr!!! Who's in??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Might have to start a November thread soon as that month looks to start off cold and wintry as we will likely see some atmospheric fireworks during the opening week of next month. 12z GEFS...diving northern branch...phasing with southern stream??? Can we see a phased monster please to close out Oct and open Novem---brrrr!!! Who's in??? That fits right in the timeframe the OP is showing a system developing. See what today's Euro does. Lot of signs pointing toward a big storm early Nov. I say bring it on! Lets get the party started. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 @ Tom Does that phase west of us?? In time for the plains? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 It's Happening!! 20171024 26-27th TWC Snow forecast map.jpgIf TWC says it’s happening, it isn’t happening. Haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Just realized that early Nov storm would be next week already. Geez this month flew by. So its only in the 8-9 day timeframe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 If TWC says it’s happening, it isn’t happening. HahaI hope Cantore goes there. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 If TWC says it’s happening, it isn’t happening. HahaI bet you guys get some windy snowshowers atleast. Thats enough to put ya in the mood with it still being October! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 @ Tom Does that phase west of us?? In time for the plains?Those are details that need to be ironed out a little closer to the storm actually forming. I'd be lying to you if I knew without a doubt in my mind. Although, you have to wonder with the blocking in place and the surprises we have been seeing this season so far, you'd have to think the chances are better for phased storms this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Sun trying to peek through, otherwise, mostly cloudy and windy temps around 52F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Wow, did the 12z Euro dig the late week Clipper or what??!! There's that curvevall Mother Nature wants to dish us once again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Actually, 12z Euro decides to go all out and block up this storm over the GL's for 3 days straight...huge qpf totals showing up over N Wisco/SE MN... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_precip_greatlakes_120.png Strip of snow from N IA/SE MN/N WI/U.P.... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_120.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Actually, 12z Euro decides to go all out and block up this storm over the GL's for 3 days straight...huge qpf totals showing up over N Wisco/SE MN... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_precip_greatlakes_120.png Strip of snow from N IA/SE MN/N WI/U.P.... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_120.pngMy word!! Something i noticed on 12z GFS is that it really slows down. Maybe it is seeing the blocking as well..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 ...is all I can think to say about Ma Nature suddenly showing us her better side. OMG this is almost so good you just have to LOL 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Looks like more showers coming from my west. Skies have darken a bit. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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