Minny_Weather Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Euro shlammers WI/U.P. border with 15". 2-5" amounts covering Minnesota. MSP with 1-3". 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 WSWatches expanded eastward to include The Arrowhead of MN Far north is the right place for #winter to be showing up first. We still need autumn down here, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 MSP afternoon AFD a pretty standard discussion for these earlier systems; not sure on temperature gradients and how quickly the atmosphere will be able to chill enough to change p-type. Sounds like they have a general idea of track, citing that the euro shifted east just a tiny bit, so they shadowed that. So, it basically all comes down to temps and timing which is quite typical of early season systems. Heard on the radio on my way home that a ski resort may be trying to make snow in these next couple chilly days and could open as soon as next Monday! Crazy weather we are having. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 From Duluth. Get that snowpack in place up nort der! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 From Duluth. Get that snowpack in place up nort der!Not a bad 1st snow day I’d say! As you said, build that glacier early. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 MPX steady as she goes for now, but says stay tuned: For now, the forecast is not dramatically differentfrom the previous forecast, although the max area is shiftedslightly east with slightly eastward shift in the ECMWF and othersolutions. It will be prudent to continue to monitor forecastupdates and trends in the forecast, since higher accumulationscould certainly occur in some areas, including the Twin Citiesmetro, should the changeover occur sooner, the snow:liquid ratiosbe higher, and/or the higher model QPF forecasts verify.Regardless, accumulation should certainly occur more readily overgrassy/natural surfaces vs pavement, but snow will alwaysaccumulate (even on pavement) if snowfall rates become sufficient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 You guys in MN should have quite the "slap" in the face from Ol' Man Winter with 40+ mph wind gusts and snow driving sideways. That's going to be a fun looking scene. Everything will be caked with snow, esp if its a wetter variety which it will likely be. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 DMX afd is a good read. Talking potential for a couple inches of snow north of highway 20 and 45mph wind gusts. Possible headlines but holding off for now due to model inconsistensies. Also mentions hard freeze fri & sat nite. Winter is coming fast! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just west of the MSP metro should do well. Looks like 1-2” possible here north of St Paul with gusts 40-50mph. Pretty cool when the local office uses words like frontogenesis and deformation band for the first snow of the season. Let’s hope it’s the start of a very good winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 DMX afd is a good read. Talking potential for a couple inches of snow north of highway 20 and 45mph wind gusts. Possible headlines but holding off for now due to model inconsistensies. Also mentions hard freeze fri & sat nite. Winter is coming fast! These guys like N Iowa for snow: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 ^^^ That makes it look like all of Canada gets snow from this system. Is it that big?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 12z NAM trending towards more snow for the MSP area.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 12z NAM trending towards more snow for the MSP area.... Nice. This is a very fascinating storm tbh, with the NNW to SSE trajectory and surprising winds. Especially right on the heals of the GL's bomb. Really gonna be some cool stuff this winter. Wound-up systems are all the rage it would seem, at least for now.. I love snow with strong winds. Drifts are one of my fave features of good winters around SMI. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 12z NAM trending towards more snow for the MSP area....12z NAM temps are a few degrees cooler than the 06z run. It appears there’s at least a chance of a quicker changeover happening than previously thought. Very interesting. The morning commute looks like it might be a rough one. iirc there were 800+ reported accidents across the state during the first snowfall last year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 I believe this is the first one of these with the white hatched region east of the Rockies. 26-Oct, not bad. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 12z NAM 3km...this system has everything you can ask for in 1 system for the first Taste of Winter: wind, snow, LES and then the cold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Now, it looks like more heavier rains are forecast in my area with this system, whereas, couple days ago, it seemed like it was going to be a weaker storm for my region. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 12z NAM 3km...this system has everything you can ask for in 1 system for the first Taste of Winter: wind, snow, LES and then the cold! Looks like up to 3 inches of wintry precipitation possibly falling around here, not guessing much will stick around. Going to be quite the wake up call to winter. Cold, snowy, and all around rather raw conditions. Driving in the morning might be a fun one since people seemingly lose any ability to drive with the first snows around here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Snap some pics and vids up there during the windy/snowy scenery! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Now, it looks like more heavier rains are forecast in my area with this system, whereas, couple days ago, it seemed like it was going to be a weaker storm for my region. KBTL needs 0.89" more to set an all-time wettest month. Would replace Sept '08 and our massive hit by hurricane Ike which currently holds the record. I was told Marshall had 13" from Ike (I was in Europe for several wks when it hit) but there's no official records kept in Marshall. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 18z NAM still pushing the heavier totals eastward. Fun system to watch unfold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 This system means business up on the MN/ND border. Reports of snow and winds gusting 50+! Too bad blizzard warnings are gone now... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 18z NAM still pushing the heavier totals eastward. Fun system to watch unfold.Was just looking at that; showing around 4 for MSP... Maybe Tom's reference to last years bad winter will get closer than we thought. Doubt that it all sticks around, but nonetheless storms trending this way will be much appreciated after what transpired last cold season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Winter Weather Advisory expanded one row of counties eastward. Minneapolis now included. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 This system means business up on the MN/ND border. Reports of snow and winds gusting 50+! Too bad blizzard warnings are gone now...Actually the Blizzard Warning is still going to be used. The Blizzard Watch was nixed as part of the simplification. The simplification isn’t so simple.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Winter Weather Advisory expanded one row of counties eastward. Minneapolis now included.And while this again will be mostly RN for the UP of Mich, if had been just a bit colder this would be the 2nd bliz in 3 days for parts of that region. That's nuts right there! And we're not talking minimal qpf here, both Max zones had or expect to have 3+ inches liquid equiv. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 (edited) Is that blue I spy ovva SWMI?? I'll be home in Marshall then, have to see if any can penetrate this far inland? 2013 since I had more than -SHSN in Oct. Actually GRR used the word SNOW several times in their pm AFD. Even mentioning ground coatings beginning early Sat. Edited October 27, 2017 by jaster220 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Temps running a bit lower than forecasted. Already down to 34 with a mix of rain and snow well in advance of the main precipitation. Temps were only supposed to get down to 38 tonight. We’ll see if temps pop back up a bit after this pocket of precip ends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 The HRRR model brings a band of light snow / flurries in tomorrow morning here. I'll take anything i can get, even seeing one flake would be nice. 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 The HRRR model brings a band of light snow / flurries in tomorrow morning here. I'll take anything i can get, even seeing one flake would be nice.I'll be in Ashland outside the entire day tomorrow. Nothing is worse than being in cloudy, cold, windy weather without a flake. I have hopes for a flurry still. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Already snowing and winds picking up here in the north metro, looks to be down around 34 right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 33° and snow. Not accumulating on the ground yet, but was starting to stack up on the car. Good stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 How's the scene up there in MN??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 How's the scene up there in MN???We posted at the same time. Ha! Fatty flakes are flying here on the east side of Minneapolis. Ground is wet from the rain overnight and temps are still a tick above 32, so accumulating snow is going to be minimal unless some really heavy stuff falls. Awesome that the first snow is much more than a few random flakes. It’s snowing pretty good out there. Pics later if the snow really picks up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Friend in Delano says it's ripping pretty hard there. Thin band centered over them. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Friend in Delano says it's ripping pretty hard there. Thin band centered over them.Yep looks like the intense band is right over that area now, slowly shifting towards the cities. Should be fun for a bit when it hits. Edit: MPX just bumped totals from around an inch to 1-3” here today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 I just saw a video on Twitter from Goodridge, MN and it looked like a legit Blizzard out there yesterday! Wow, that scene looked wild out there. i'll try to find it and post it on here... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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