December Weather In the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Estacadadungeon -100/+100]

16-22%

How did you come up with those odds?

[Gradient Keeper]

How did you come up with those odds?

Satan mixed with Magic 8 Ball

 

 

Nah, based on past few runs showing possible chilly trough, thickness perhaps sub525. I wouldn't get too excited though as flat ridging potential may spoil that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[MossMan]

Is there a good mapping app that gives elevation? Say I type in an address and it gives me the elevation for that particular spot?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 - Poops!

[Gradient Keeper]

Both 00z GFS/CMC have really watered down the first trough on Friday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Amplify Aleutian ridge, amplify! I know you won't, because you're a friggin bu'hole.

[Deweydog]

Or the next 15, unless we see a couple shifts in the modeling.

 

The point was to illustrate that we're close to a classic pattern setup, but there's one main thing that probably needs to happen first.

Seems pretty clear. What we've seen recently is pretty classic false start noise.

[Gradient Keeper]

That nagging 992mb low riding the top of the Aleutian ridge is why it's not amplifying. Compared to those teaser 18z, 00z runs yesterday the energy was held back further west.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 ... Well, for what it's worth the Gulf of Alaska ridge is more amplified than 18z..

[MossMan]

Seems pretty clear. What we've seen recently is pretty classic false start noise.

5 yard penalty...repeat the down?

[Gradient Keeper]

We need the ole Kamchatka bomb to develop around day 4-5 that would really pump up the ridge

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Decent.... Far better than the 00z CMC = Puking barf vomit fest

[stuffradio]

00Z CMC doesn't agree, at least at day 10. Quite different from the GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Classic backdoor modified blast into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. Massive cold pool develops near Christmas.

[Gradient Keeper]

That BLOCK though sets up around Day 11 just a tad too far east.... Progression seems logical. I see day 6-7 a 180kt jet extension moves off Asia which could certainly spin up a deep low/Kamchatka bomb holding energy further west and promote massive downstream blocking. We shall see....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121000/264/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS running... I'm sure it's just another teaser GFS run

 

00z ECMWF in 34 minutes

[MossMan]

Day 10 Decent.... Far better than the 00z CMC = Puking barf vomit fest

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 10 if the ridge puts the brakes on right here we'll be okay. IF. WHAT. MAYBE. COULDA. SHOULDA. WOULDA. ALMOST

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017121000/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11 ridge puts brakes on, evolving into block. Hmmm

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017121000/264/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice southeast US ridge

[Gradient Keeper]

The GEFS very very similar to the Op run. Crazy. A lot of potential there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mossmans house

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Brrrrr

[wxmet]

Day 10 Decent.... Far better than the 00z CMC = Puking barf vomit fest

 

Good look to it. GFS has been trying to bring something around the time frame for a couple of runs (with timing differences). What's missing is a strong high to the north to funnel down cold air for lowland snow. 

[Deweydog]

5 yard penalty...repeat the down?

Also, #58 and #63 have been declared eligible. Duh...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Also, #58 and #63 have been declared eligible. Duh...

And don't forget, since we are in the last month of the year and we have no timeouts, a 10 day rundown.   Christmas is next week!  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 500mb Composite Analog
Day 8-14

 

MUCH improved pattern. Some really good/cold and snowy years popping up! Correlation score needs work though.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[HighlandExperience]

Puyallup Johns house.

[umadbro]

And don't forget, since we are in the last month of the year and we have no timeouts, a 10 day rundown. Christmas is next week!

Pete has a habit of blowing through timeouts like he has a million of em.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Pete has a habit of blowing through timeouts like he has a million of em.

Yup.  That is why when we wake up tomorrow, we had to go 10 days forward to Dec. 20th.  Seriously, why can't they hire a guy who is great with time management, situational management, when to challange calls, etc.?  Someone to tell him "take the 3 points now, we may need them at the end of the game".  So many times they didn't  kick the field goal at the end of the 1st half and later on wished they had, or wished they had not blown a time out on an obviously correct ref's call?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 2

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121000/048/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121000/072/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Deweydog]

And don't forget, since we are in the last month of the year and we have no timeouts, a 10 day rundown. Christmas is next week!

If we get to New Year's with no action, this place will be going no huddle and an empty backfield.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121000/096/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Gradient Keeper]

If we get to New Year's with no action, this place will be going no huddle and an empty backfield.

We might even see the Waterboy and Kaepernick get some playing time if the situation becomes that dire.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

If we get to New Year's with no action, this place will be going no huddle and an empty backfield.

That's when we will SCORE!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 All eyes on ridge emerging off Japan

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121000/120/500h_anom.na.png