Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Snowfall over the last 30 days. Lol, you couldn’t script this any better (worse). The DC “s***hole”. Imagine living in one of those snowbelt areas where you know you're going to get clobbered every winter. The power of lake effect snow is amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Ryan Maue’s new website is epic. Getting more-so by the day, too. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Imagine living in one of those snowbelt areas where you know you're going to get clobbered every winter. The power of lake effect snow is amazing.There’s nothing like it. There was a lake-effect storm up in NY that should have broken Colorado’s 24hr snowfall record, but the doofus observer took one of the measurements too soon after the previous one, so it had to be thrown out. I forget the town/year..will have to look it up. One of these years, there’s going to be an early season blast that cranks out 90”/24hrs somewhere with an observing station. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 My mother lives in Jamestown NY. She's told me about past lake effect snows that would blow our minds. Obviously late November and December is where the heaviest snows would be due to Erie not freezing over yet but she's told me about some of those later winter snows that can be devastating as well. Cool stuff 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Half a mile from me averages 1,200"/year. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 I think the 00z GFS will be an improvement over the 18z in the clown range, for whatever it’s worth. Siberian cyclone is farther east @ 138hrs, giving the NPAC ridge a harder kick in the arse. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 I think the 00z GFS will be an improvement over the 18z in the clown range, for whatever it’s worth. Siberian cyclone is farther east @ 138hrs, giving the NPAC ridge a harder kick in the arse. Sounds plausible. The clown range is the most common range for improvements. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Sounds plausible. The clown range is the most common range for improvements.Lol, that much is true. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Didn't even have to wait for Pennywise range...0z already much improved at day 7. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 18z was decent in clown range... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Sub 522 thicknesses and boring southerly flow on the 00z #badlocation #centralvalley Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Sub 522 thicknesses and boring southerly flow on the 00z #badlocation #centralvalley Pretty solid up herrrrr.... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Pretty solid up herrrrr....Oh yeah. And in Bend too. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 My mother lives in Jamestown NY. She's told me about past lake effect snows that would blow our minds. Obviously late November and December is where the heaviest snows would be due to Erie not freezing over yet but she's told me about some of those later winter snows that can be devastating as well. Cool stuff My mom always talks about the "blizzard of 77" when she was living on the Niagara Peninsula. In that case Lake Erie froze complete over and then it built up a thick layer of powdery snow. When they finally got a major storm all that snow was blasted into the nearby communities creating drifts larger than houses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 The 0z GEM actually has a decent look to it at the end. This sort of pattern has worked out well in the past. Still aligns with a possible end of January/start of February blast. The GFS is uglier with the cutoff ridge, but could still come through in the first week of February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Active run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Raining incredibly hard this evening. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 I should have known not to try and extrapolate the clown range GFS. Furnaces the entire NH under +EPO/+NAO. Lol.. The end of the GFS isn't bad for the PNW. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 The end of the GFS isn't bad for my location.FYP. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Good stuff coming for us near the end of the month. At the very least getting out of the funk of the past three weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Nice hemispheric/global temperature drop, though. AlpineExperience can breathe a sigh of relief. Days 0-5: Days 5-10: Days 10-15: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Ha, the Northern Hemispheric temperature anomaly drops by 1.07C this run. Usually need a SSW for that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 My mother lives in Jamestown NY. She's told me about past lake effect snows that would blow our minds. Obviously late November and December is where the heaviest snows would be due to Erie not freezing over yet but she's told me about some of those later winter snows that can be devastating as well. Cool stuffEast coast ridges can be very good for march even April snowfalls for the snowbelts over there. No frozen lakes dot com. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 East coast ridges can be very good for march even April snowfalls for the snowbelts over there. No frozen lakes dot com.Meaning if they happen a month before it gets cold again. Thawing the lakes. I think this will probably be one of those years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 I like how the block forms though, just need it to amplify up into Alaska. There's also that SE ridge there. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011800/384/500h_anom.na.pngI do like the long period wave-2 pattern w/ the MJO propagating towards the WHEM, which is now a consensus on all of the modeling and analog years. It will provide opportunity for the PNW/western Canada to receive cross polar flow through the first 10 days of February (whether it actually happens is debatable), then it will start bringing bigger Arctic assaults back into the picture for the US thereafter, later in February. The latter might be a higher confidence forecast than the former. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 I was unaware of the torch in Western Europe. One of my good friends lives in Trier, Germany and I check the weather there from time to time. Seems like it has been cool to seasonable.I was in Trier a couple summers ago. There are some cool buildings there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 My mom always talks about the "blizzard of 77" when she was living on the Niagara Peninsula. In that case Lake Erie froze complete over and then it built up a thick layer of powdery snow. When they finally got a major storm all that snow was blasted into the nearby communities creating drifts larger than houses.I've read several articles about that and viewed some of pics. Truly remarkable event. Here's Oregon's unfortunate similarity. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_X4qe7-HyiEs/TT5wwO8q0dI/AAAAAAAADVw/mFOAQvKMRrY/s1600/IMG_2682.JPG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Scattered thunderstorms across southern Vancouver Island this evening. Seem to be avoiding MBY but I have heard reports elsewhere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 I do like the long period wave-2 pattern w/ the MJO propagating towards the WHEM, which is now a consensus on all of the modeling and analog years. It will provide opportunity for the PNW/western Canada to receive cross polar flow through the first 10 days of February (whether it actually happens is debatable), then it will start bringing bigger Arctic assaults back into the picture for the US thereafter, later in February. The latter might be a higher confidence forecast than the former.Yeah, I agree with your sentiments. I think the ECMWF might be handling the EPO better in the long range than the GFS. 12z ECMWF EPO looks like it's about to turn negative while the 00z GFS wants to keep it positive. If we can get the EPO negative, it's going to help with cross polar flow and bring the Arctic air down to the NW. http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_epo_forecast.pnghttp://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/gfs_epo_forecast.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Scattered thunderstorms across southern Vancouver Island this evening. Seem to be avoiding MBY but I have heard reports elsewhere. Tomorrow looks like a prime day for convection across most of the region. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 I have no idea why mark Nelsen is such a warm weather ***** now? Is it because his chickens might freeze? It's weird because I remember when he liked snow. Probably just appeasing to what fox12 tells him to say because Portland is the new San Francisco. Lake Oswego and west linn are a hell hole. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 I have no idea why mark Nelsen is such a warm weather ***** now? Is it because his chickens might freeze? It's weird because I remember when he liked snow. Probably just appeasing to what fox12 tells him to say because Portland is the new San Francisco. Lake Oswego and west linn are a hell hole. #huh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 There’s nothing like it. There was a lake-effect storm up in NY that should have broken Colorado’s 24hr snowfall record, but the doofus observer took one of the measurements too soon after the previous one, so it had to be thrown out. I forget the town/year..will have to look it up. One of these years, there’s going to be an early season blast that cranks out 90”/24hrs somewhere with an observing station. 77" in Montague, NY in January 1997. The observer took 5 measurements on his snow board instead of 4, rendering his record invalid. A dumb way to lose a record IMO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 77" in Montague, NY in January 1997. The observer took 5 measurements on his snow board instead of 4, rendering his record invalid. A dumb way to lose a record IMO.Gaaahh. Unbelievable. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Over 6 feet of snow in 24 hours. That’s actually scary to think about. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Tomorrow looks like a prime day for convection across most of the region.Supposedly some people in surrounding cities of me heard thunder tonight. I didn't hear it this time though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 77" in Montague, NY in January 1997. The observer took 5 measurements on his snow board instead of 4, rendering his record invalid. A dumb way to lose a record IMO.Are you supposed to measure and clear the board every 6 hours? Then total the 4 measurements for your 24hr total? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 18, 2018 Report Share Posted January 18, 2018 Are you supposed to measure and clear the board every 6 hours? Then total the 4 measurements for your 24hr total? You got it. That's what the NWS considers official. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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