Gradient Keeper Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Day 10 heading the right direction much like the GFS, GEM. It's OUR turn! Colder runs ahead http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018012400/240/500h_anom.na.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 00z CMCE is quite good! Here is day 10-11http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018012400/258/500h_anom.na.png Here is the loop> http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmce&p=500h_anom&rh=2018012400&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt= 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Maybe. Might join forces with the ridge to the south and become a full latitude monster. Extremely unlikely. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Extremely unlikely.Bob and Doug McKenzie seem sold on the idea. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 The Canadian ensemble is on board for some fun. Some of these members are crazy cold. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I’m having a difficult time figuring out what would force a full-blown retrogression in the middle of a jet extension upstream. Sort of a head scratcher. Not that it matters what I think, at this point. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Bob and Doug McKenzie seem sold on the idea.I wouldn't go that far, still quite a bit of undercutting. Any "merging" looks coincidental to me. Hard to find many instances of a massive, closed block just floating around up there and happening into a position where it merges with a fairly progressive mid latitude ridge and they marry into a true full latitude block. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I’m having a difficult time figuring out what would force a full-blown retrogression in the middle of a jet extension upstream. Sort of a head scratcher. Not that it matters what I think, at this point.The coming tanked -EPO along with -PNA. DONE DEAL --18z NAM (Friday) in 60 hours 31 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I wouldn't go that far, still quite a bit of undercutting. Any "merging" looks coincidental to me. Hard to find many instances of a massive, closed block just floating around up there and happening into a position where it merges with a fairly progressive mid latitude ridge and they marry into a true full latitude block. Feb 1995 basically did that. But it was a real fluke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 The coming tanked -EPO along with -PNA. DONE DEAL --18z NAM (Friday) in 60 hours 31 minutesl don’t want to get into an hours-long PNA debate again. Remember, though, that these indices don’t drive the pattern..they only reflect it. I don’t know what will happen this time, but I certainly don’t think this is anything close to a “done deal”. I’m still on the skeptical side, if anything. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I wouldn't go that far, still quite a bit of undercutting. Any "merging" looks coincidental to me. Hard to find many instances of a massive, closed block just floating around up there and happening into a position where it merges with a fairly progressive mid latitude ridge and they marry into a true full latitude block.Ah, we are putting our serious face on. It definitely is not a likely progression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 FWIW, we haven’t had a single -NAO month during DJF in five years. That’s a new record. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Feb 1995 basically did that. But it was a real fluke.The Pacific was essentially shut down in the days leading up to it, leading up to a pretty classic retrogression. In this case they seem to be like two global warming ships passing in the night. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I’m having a difficult time figuring out what would force a full-blown retrogression in the middle of a jet extension upstream. Sort of a head scratcher. Not that it matters what I think, at this point. It appears the low that settles in NW of Hawaii is the key. All models agree on that feature. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 00z CMCE is quite good! Here is day 10-11http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018012400/258/500h_anom.na.png Here is the loop> http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmce&p=500h_anom&rh=2018012400&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=What's been missing this winter is that we haven't had much positive tilt to any troughs. The 00z CMCE shows some nice positive tilt and this should drive the Arctic air down to us. Now we need the GFS and EURO to show this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Ah, we are putting our serious face on. It definitely is not a likely progression. It sure looks like the models like the idea of it though. One of my indicators is in play now...that being sub 1000mb pressure over Darwin. Don't ask me why, but that figures into some nice cold waves for us. I have actually thought the models have to change in our favor based on the tropics. I'm dying to see how this is going to work out. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 What's been missing this winter is that we haven't had much positive tilt to any troughs. The 00z CMCE shows some nice positive tilt and this should drive the Arctic air down to us. Now we need the GFS and EURO to show this. The GFS operational did. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 The Pacific was essentially shut down in the days leading up to it, leading up to a pretty classic retrogression. In this case they seem to be like two global warming ships passing in the night. It looked somewhat similar to me, compared to maps being shown tonight. I don't doubt what you're saying though. Either way, Feb 1995 was one of the least likely events we'll ever see w/regard to background forcing. Interrupting a full-blown Nino torch in February. Not supposed to happen. I'm pretty sure you have to go back to mid-Feb 1900 for a precedent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 What's been missing this winter is that we haven't had much positive tilt to any troughs. The 00z CMCE shows some nice positive tilt and this should drive the Arctic air down to us. Now we need the GFS and EURO to show this.What is shown there is almost a carbon copy of the close call leading up to Christmas. We have an overdevoloped block over AK with a dirty ridge axis to the south preventing any westward digging. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 It looked somewhat similar to me, compared to maps being shown tonight. I don't doubt what you're saying though. Either way, Feb 1995 was one of the least likely events we'll ever see w/regard to background forcing. Interrupting a full-blown Nino torch in February. Not supposed to happen. I'm pretty sure you have to go back to mid-Feb 1900 for a precedent.Definitely a rogue one. Maybe this winter is finally the payback for that badass. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 With the current situation it's amazing to think a few details of how the pieces come together could be the difference between a very cold February and one that is a complete flop. If the good pattern happens it could easily lock in long enough to give us a couple of solid cold shots. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 It appears the low that settles in NW of Hawaii is the key. All models agree on that feature.That’s just one piece in the giant puzzle, though. I’ve spent the last 30 minutes laying in bed, looping the streamfunction and height anomalies over and over again..and while I can see why the retrogression happens on some of the guidance, it’s super convoluted. #ThreadingTheNeedle Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 What is shown there is almost a carbon copy of the close call leading up to Christmas. We have an overdevoloped block over AK with a dirty ridge axis to the south preventing any westward digging.Yeah that too. Some of the problems this winter has been that the block becomes too top heavy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 With the current situation it's amazing to think a few details of how the pieces come together could be the difference between a very cold February and one that is a complete flop. If the good pattern happens it could easily lock in long enough to give us a couple of solid cold shots.Could lead to a really hot and cloudy summer too. #dewforsomehighdewpoints Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Definitely a rogue one. Maybe this winter is finally the payback for that badass. No, payback was 2000-01. This current payback is for last winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 It looked somewhat similar to me, compared to maps being shown tonight. I don't doubt what you're saying though. Either way, Feb 1995 was one of the least likely events we'll ever see w/regard to background forcing. Interrupting a full-blown Nino torch in February. Not supposed to happen. I'm pretty sure you have to go back to mid-Feb 1900 for a precedent. March 1906 was pretty crazy as well. Huge torchy ridge retrograded into one of the more freakish arctic airmasses on record for us, after a mild, strong Nino winter. Then ridging quickly returned and lead into one of the great April torches. Vancouver went from 72/37 on March 9 to 30/22 on March 12. Nutso stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 00Z EPS at day 10... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 No, payback was 2000-01. This current payback is for last winter. It's making the bellyaching they did in the BG School District when scheduling this year. They ended up settling on building in six snow days for this year back in May. Pretty much sealed the deal. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 00Z EPS at day 10... EXTREME!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 This is one heck of an MJO wave. Still looks to avoid phases 8-3 until after February 10th. So still 2+ weeks left with decent tropical forcing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 EXTREME!!!I think that is actually a full latitude block. I still sense retrogression! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Control run still going nuts in the 10-15 day period as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I think that is actually a full latitude block. I still sense retrogression!With a 20+ dm north/south gradient from the offshore waters to Anchorage? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 With a 20+ dm north/south gradient from the offshore waters to Anchorage?Debbie Downer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 March 1906 was pretty crazy as well. Huge torchy ridge retrograded into one of the more freakish arctic airmasses on record for us, after a mild, strong Nino winter. Then ridging quickly returned and lead into one of the great April torches. Vancouver went from 72/37 on March 9 to 30/22 on March 12. Nutso stuff. Yeah, definitely a crazy one. Late March 1914 is another good example of a Nino torch having a hiccup. Some places in western WA went from highs near 80 to 40's/30's with snow in the air in the span of a few days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 It's making the bellyaching they did in the BG School District when scheduling this year. They ended up settling on building in six snow days for this year back in May. Pretty much sealed the deal. Classic overreaction! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Classic overreaction!Nine days last year, which was unprecedented for the district by almost double. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Could lead to a really hot and cloudy summer too. #dewforsomehighdewpoints6th consecutive and coming off of a La Niña? Getting into some pretty unlikely territory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 I think the control run brings the actual PV (tropospheric vortex coupled to the stratospheric one) into southern Canada by day 14. Have to check the strat plots when they come out, but it looks like it. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2018 Report Share Posted January 24, 2018 Easterlies making a comeback!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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