February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like it might get fun here in a few minutes. Very dark clouds to my North and the radar shows the CZ moving SE knocking on my door.

[Guest Sounder]

Edmonds and Mill Creek getting blasted by the CZ right now. 

Snowing really hard around Paine Field.

 

 

 

 

 

Wow, that was a quick change. I checked that exact camera at 2:20 and it looked like 100% rain there.

[seattleweatherguy]

Just looking to the north from here it is quite dark. Looks to be moving ESE right now.

I'm hoping it hits me but I'm at 41 now.

[Guest Sounder]

I'm noticing some returns starting to fire up ahead of the sagging CZ right over Seattle proper now. Fingers crossed that turns into something, could be a nice surprise if so.

[Geos]

Just north of Maltby.

At 38 here, so it shouldn't be hard to get some snow here as well.

 

 

I-5 in Lynnwood

 

[Jesse]

I'm hoping it hits me but I'm at 41 now.

The temperature you are at now doesn’t have a whole lot of bearing on where it would be if the CZ hit you. It could easily drop 6-8 degrees.

[Jesse]

Wow, yeah that’s putting it lightly.

Do you foresee this kind of awesomeness sticking with us for awhile?

[Guest Sounder]

The temperature you are at now doesn’t have a whole lot of bearing on where it would be if the CZ hit you. It could easily drop 6-8 degrees.

With daytime heating over and the intensity of this CZ currently I'd be surprised if any location under it doesn't at the very least see flakes in the air. Unless you live above the downtown waterfront Red Robin temps probably aren't the main concern. This looks like a pretty textbook narrow band of CZ jackpot winners wherever it stalls, assuming it holds together.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just had a super heavy slop fest mega blast. Fun

[Geos]

It's inching towards the county line slowly. So close...

 

[MossMan]

NWS Seattle has a NowCast out and mentioned the CZ will remain stationary or move just slightly south...someone will be a big winner this evening!

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is much colder than the 12z late in the week.  A surface low tracks pretty favorably for lowland snow, but the model is surprisingly dry with that low for some reason.

[snow_wizard]

Imagine how awesome our climate would be with no cascades or rockies to the east and no Olympics to our west. 

 

For the past week I have been particularly frustrated with the Olympic mountains. They are certainly not worth any CZ zone. They have done an epic screw job on us this winter. 

 

The weird thing is we still manage to do very well some winters in spite of them.

[Jesse]

The 18z GFS is much colder than the 12z late in the week.  A surface low tracks pretty favorably for lowland snow, but the model is surprisingly dry with that low for some reason.

 

Yeah, I like the look of the late week pattern a lot better on the 18z. Very suppressed jet across the entire northern tier, with a Pacific block and Greenland block anchoring things in place. That's an old school type of configuration.

 

18Z actually matches pretty well with the EPS, for what it's worth.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 18z GFS is much colder than the 12z late in the week. A surface low tracks pretty favorably for lowland snow, but the model is surprisingly dry with that low for some reason.

Yeah strange but also looks like more fraser outflow.

[Jesse]

Wondering if we will see any wet snow showers down here tonight once the front sweeps through. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Strange how that low pinwheels down and back north. That could be a nice snow pattern as it makes the turn north.

[Geos]

NWS Seattle has a NowCast out and mentioned the CZ will remain stationary or move just slightly south...someone will be a big winner this evening!

 

I need it 5 miles further south to be in good returns. I hope I get something out of this.

I am seeing returns crossing into Shoreline now.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And then the clown range showns a very close pattern for massive snow.

[MikeInEverett]

Right in the middle of the CZ and it’s all hail, but it managed to turn everything white so that was cool.

[Jesse]

Wow! PDX just crashed to 39 with WNW winds gusting to 31mph.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KPDX&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

 

Love how this cold late winter pattern has had some staying power.

[snow_wizard]

Radar shows the flow is rapidly becoming more northerly now.  Let's hope everyone in the general Seattle area can score something before it dries out.

[Guest Sounder]

Right in the middle of the CZ and it’s all hail, but it managed to turn everything white so that was cool.

That would explain how things went white so fast. I thought the roads on the camera had unusually defined tire tracks moreso than one would expect if it were snow. Still a good sign that cold air will continue to be drawn down to the surface as it gets later at least.

[snow_wizard]

Wow! PDX just crashed to 39 with WNW winds gusting to 31mph.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KPDX&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

 

Love how this cold late winter pattern has had some staying power.

 

I'm thinking this two week period (last Sunday through next Sunday) will be top 3 for two week average in the period of record.  Big time stuff.

[seattleweatherguy]

I need it 5 miles further south to be in good returns. I hope I get something out of this.

I am seeing returns crossing into Shoreline now.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/ATX/N0Q/ATX.N0Q.20180225.2315.gif

Need about 7 miles south. Rain here very light

[seattleweatherguy]

Hailing here

[Geos]

Snowing! Down to 37.

[seattleweatherguy]

Making some part of grass white

[seattleweatherguy]

Snowing! Down to 37.

 

I got hail you sure it's snow

[Phil]

Do you foresee this kind of awesomeness sticking with us for awhile?

Depends on the timescale. I still see a hiatus during the middle of March, but the longer term prospects still look fantastic..at least better than the 2013-17 background conditions. Even though 2018 should resemble a bouncy transition year, having the 50mb -QBO mature right around the summer solstice (under developing solar minimum conditions too) usually helps consolidate the Aleutian anticyclone/-PNA during the warm season.

 

So you guys might stay in a cool pattern despite the global boundary conditions re-organizing in chaotic fashion through the year. This is like the anti-2013.

[Jesse]

Making some part of grass white

 

How is that possible werent you just at 41 i didnt think it would ever change

[Geos]

I got hail you sure it's snow

 

Looks like it..

Granted it is pretty sloppy looking. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Interesting I'm getting more like hail. Elevation maybe or too warm for snow

[Geos]

Interesting I'm getting more like hail. Elevation maybe or too warm for snow

 

Probably graupel snow.

 

Dew point just got pushed down to 32.

[seattleweatherguy]

39 with a dp of 35 come on drop a few more degrees

[Deweydog]

How is that possible werent you just at 41 i didnt think it would ever change

[Jesse]

BGSD strikes again!!!!

[Deweydog]

47 in Omak.

[seattleweatherguy]

Yea might be. Street all white now

[Geos]

35/31 now. Flakes and graupel mix right now. Sticking to everything but the pavement. 

 

Lake City getting hit good.