March 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

18-24" just in the past several hours in parts of NJ, 3-5" per hour rates. Literally takes nothing to get a giant snowstorm there. Winters aren't even really cold. 

I wouldn't say nothing. You need the right ingredients to come together for a huge snowstorm to occur on the EC.

 

FWIW: We get the best snowstorms there.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and cold w temp @ 27F. More snow developing by dawn. Forecasters are expecting 2-4".

[Niko]

UKIE and the GFS is a 985MB deepening low off the coast of DE. Another possible explosion over the Atlantic to bury the EC once again by next Monday.

[Money]

NYC really busted with this last storm

 

Supposed to get 8-12 and many parts of the city barely got 2

 

Marginal temps really screwed them

[gosaints]

NYC really busted with this last storm

 

Supposed to get 8-12 and many parts of the city barely got 2

 

Marginal temps really screwed them

Yep... Some spots in West Conn could hit 30. 24 inches of concrete in parts of Jersey. Has been some 4-6 inch an hour stuff...

[Tabitha]

NYC really busted with this last storm

Supposed to get 8-12 and many parts of the city barely got 2

Marginal temps really screwed them

UHI is an enormous factor; along with no elevation; along with being next to the water...and it was mostly during the daytime.

 

NYC is actually a horrible snow town compared to areas to the west, north, and even east out on Long Island...where some parts of the North Shore of LI were closing in on 9 inches of new snow.

[Tabitha]

Verily; I tell you... reading AM WX board is like reading verbal diarrhea; the degree of douchebaggery and simple gross ignorance is mind boggling.

 

90% of the posters do not now a Low from a High.

[Niko]

UHI is an enormous factor; along with no elevation; along with being next to the water...and it was mostly during the daytime.

 

NYC is actually a horrible snow town compared to areas to the west, north, and even east out on Long Island...where some parts of the North Shore of LI were closing in on 9 inches of new snow.

Horrible snow town? Not. Snowstorms there can really bury you. Its just a little harder to get the real big one. That heat island effect and water surrounding it does the trick and makes it more difficult. Had this low took a track more west, then, places NW of the city that got pounded w snow today would have been a mix or rain. Track of the low places an important roll. Problem is, that the low was hugging the coastline. It needs to take the NE Delmarva track for a pure, bonified snowstorm.

 

It was a  NYC bust, but Northern Queens did very well, which is about one bridge away from Manhattan (Queensboro Bridge). It took me literally 15 to 20 minutes to get to Manhattan from there. South shore didn't do that well either (Brooklyn was a bust). I know dudes from the Bronx emailing me today that they did fairly well up at that borough.

 

NYC..see ya soon

[Tabitha]

Horrible snow town? Not. Snowstorms there can really bury you. Its just a little harder to get the real big one. That heat island effect and water surrounding it does the trick and makes it more difficult. Had this low took a track more west, then, places NW of the city that got pounded w snow today would have been a mix or rain. Track of the low places an important roll. Problem is, that the low was hugging the coastline. It needs to take the NE Delmarva track for a pure, bonified snowstorm.

 

It was a  NYC bust, but Northern Queens did very well, which is about one bridge away from Manhattan (Queensboro Bridge). It took me literally 15 to 20 minutes to get to Manhattan from there. South shore didn't do that well either (Brooklyn was a bust). I know dudes from the Bronx emailing me today that they did fairly well up at that borough.

 

NYC..see ya soon

Yes it is a great snow town...lolzzzzzz.

 

Soooo great that LaGuardia has 21.3 inches of snow on the winter per the afternoon climate report.

 

Well, better than JFK with 21.1 inches.

 

It is a mediocre snow town even in the good years.

[Tabitha]

Yes it is a great snow town...lolzzzzzz.

Soooo great that LaGuardia has 21.3 inches of snow on the winter per the afternoon climate report.

Well, better than JFK with 21.1 inches.

It is a mediocre snow town even in the good years.

So mediocre that even poor little Islip Airport on the South Shore of Long Island...with no elevation and exposure to the warm Atlantic....has already measured more than 35 inches of snow this winter.

[Tabitha]

Here's another example...the NWS WFO at Upton on Long Island saw 78.5 inches of snow in 2004-05.

 

You know how much JFK in NYC saw? 36.8 inches.

 

In 2012-13, it was Upton 51.8 inches; JFK 17.6 inches...lolzzzz.

 

Upton, like Islip, has no elevation and is likewise exposed to the warm Atlantic.

 

NYC is a snow hell compared to almost everywhere around it (except to its south).

[Tabitha]

 

It was a  NYC bust, but Northern Queens did very well, which is about one bridge away from Manhattan (Queensboro Bridge). It took me literally 15 to 20 minutes to get to Manhattan from there. South shore didn't do that well either (Brooklyn was a bust). I know dudes from the Bronx emailing me today that they did fairly well up at that borough.

 

NYC..see ya soon

LaGuardia is in northern Queens and had 1.7 inches at last report; worst in the area.

 

Like I said; A snow hell.

[Tom]

Rise and Shine!  What an impressive Nor'easter for parts of NJ and into the Hudson Valley (VT/MA) where anywhere from 18-32" of snow fell along with insane 2-6"/Hr snow fall rates as the meso scale banding really delivered the goods.  I'd love to experience that kind of a snowstorm and/or snowfall rates.  Can you imagine if there was a cold HP feeding in colder air???  Even a few degrees colder this would have been even more mind blowing.  Truly a magnificent feat of what nature can do.  March alone has brought some place AN in terms of seasonal snowfall from just 2 storms, actually, this last storm might have brought some place AN by one storm alone.

 

Meanwhile, back in Chicago, Spring is no where to be found and a rather tranquil pattern is setting up but temps will remain BN through the weekend into much of next week.  Strong blocking is shunting the next system late this weekend farther south into the southern Plains that will eventually try to develop into another Nor'easter???  Models are painting some snow out in NE/IA/MO but its minimal and prob not much to talk about.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anything to look forward to???  Yes, although it will be brief, but I think next Friday has a shot at some warmer temps around here.  St Patty's weekend is looking unsettled which leads into a colder week to follow.  The latest JMA Weeklies are not enthusiastic for warmth Week 2-4.

 

Week 2...

 

 

Week 3...

 

 

 

 

 

 

But wait, as we flip the calendar into April we see the model agreeing with the LRC and here comes the warmth...just after Easter???  You can see a hint of the southern ridge building up from the south.  

 

 

 

Latest CFSv2 weeklies backing off the warmth for Week 3 and trending colder, but still in the warm camp for Week 4 which makes sense to me.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

[Tom]

Very interesting read regarding the sun spot trend this year and where we may be heading as we head deeper into the solar minimum.  IMO, this is setting the stage for an interesting couple of winters going forward.  For those who love winter, I'm anticipating 2018-2020 to deliver rather extreme weather events across N.A. and Europe.

 

 

THE SUN IS BLANK: Sunspots are becoming scarce. So far in 2018, the sun has been blank--that is, without sunspots--for 33 days. That's fully half of the time. Inspect the face of today's sun:

http://spaceweather.com/images2018/08mar18/blanksun_strip.jpg

Could you find any dark cores? Answer: No. The last time the sun was blank more than 50% of the time was in 2009, near the end of the deepest Solar Minimum of the Space Age. Now the sun is entering a new Solar Minimum, and it is shaping up to be even deeper than before. 

Periods of spotlessness are a normal part of the 11-year solar cycle. However, the current Solar Minimum may be remarkable as the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field are weakening to low levels never before seen in the Space Age. The flagging pressure of the solar wind, in turn, is allowing more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. These rays are being detected not only by NASA spacecraft in the Earth-Moon system, but also by space weather balloons in Earth's atmosphere. Scroll down to the news item "The Worsening Cosmic Ray Situation" to read more about this phenomenon.

[Minny_Weather]

Very interesting read regarding the sun spot trend this year and where we may be heading as we head deeper into the solar minimum.  IMO, this is setting the stage for an interesting couple of winters going forward.  For those who love winter, I'm anticipating 2018-2020 to deliver rather extreme weather events across N.A. The East Coast and Europe.

Fixed it for you.

[Tabitha]

Very interesting read regarding the sun spot trend this year and where we may be heading as we head deeper into the solar minimum. IMO, this is setting the stage for an interesting couple of winters going forward. For those who love winter, I'm anticipating 2018-2020 to deliver rather extreme weather events across N.A. and Europe.

The Little Ice Age...that abnormally cold interval that encompassed North America and Europe from a few decades after the Bubonic Plague ravaged the Continent...I believe it set in during the 1380's...when the Thames regularly iced over....all of that was precipitated by low sunspot activity...the so called Maunder Minimum. It ended around 1890... and we have been in a warm cycle ever since...though as you said there have been a few low sunspot cycles recently; which help to counter balance the slight warming wrought by industrialization over the last 150 years.

 

The Dalton and Sporer Minimums were the two less celebrated low cycles during that 500 year cool period.

[Tom]

Fixed it for you.

LOL...

 

The Little Ice Age...that abnormally cold interval that encompassed North America and Europe from a few decades after the Bubonic Plague ravaged the Continent...I believe it set in during the 1380's...when the Thames regularly iced over....all of that was precipitated by low sunspot activity...the so called Maunder Minimum. It ended around 1890... and we have been in a warm cycle ever since...though as you said there have been a few low sunspot cycles recently; which help to counter balance the slight warming wrought by industrialization over the last 150 years.

Indeed, and I agree with you, it hasn't been the alarming warmth that this planet hasn't seen before, esp when you look at history way back in the Medieval Period when the sun was hyper active.  Based on my research in this space, I'm inclined to believe we will be heading into something similar to the Maunder Minimum.  Not sure yet if I'm all in on that scenario as I'd like to see how the next few years evolve.

[Tabitha]

LOL...

 

 

Indeed, and I agree with you, it hasn't been the alarming warmth that this planet hasn't seen before, esp when you look at history way back in the Medieval Period when the sun was hyper active. Based on my research in this space, I'm inclined to believe we will be heading into something similar to the Maunder Minimum. Not sure yet if I'm all in on that scenario as I'd like to see how the next few years evolve.

The essential reason that the average temperature on the planet is higher than it was 150 years ago is because most temperature readings are taken in cities and towns...which are all much more built up than they were a century and a half ago and naturally the temps in these places will be higher now than then because built up urban areas are always warmer than the surrounding countryside.

 

However, I would not entirely discount the notion that if you continuously spew carbon dioxide into the atmosphere it might raise the global temps a bit.

 

This is a complex scenario; as it lends itself to the possibility of a negative feedback scenario...warmer temps mean more precip...more precip means more snow...more snow means more snow cover...more snow cover means a higher albedo (more incoming radiation reflected because of the increased white acreage)...which could potentially lead to overall cooling.

 

A complex area; to be sure.

[Niko]

Here's another example...the NWS WFO at Upton on Long Island saw 78.5 inches of snow in 2004-05.

 

You know how much JFK in NYC saw? 36.8 inches.

 

In 2012-13, it was Upton 51.8 inches; JFK 17.6 inches...lolzzzz.

 

Upton, like Islip, has no elevation and is likewise exposed to the warm Atlantic.

 

NYC is a snow hell compared to almost everywhere around it (except to its south).

NYC had over 40" IN 2004-05.

[Niko]

Currently light snow and its dang cold out there. Temp @ 29F.

[Tabitha]

NYC had over 40" IN 2004-05.

Central Park had 41.0...JFK had 36.8 like I said.

 

Upton still had 78.5...37.5 inches more than the Park.

 

I lived within 60 miles of NYC since the time of Stuyvesant; so I know the climatology of that region better than any person on the planet.

[Niko]

Central Park had 41.0...JFK had 36.8 like I said.

 

Upton still had 78.5...37.5 inches more than the Park.

 

I lived within 60 miles of NYC since the time of Stuyvesant; so I know the climatology of that region better than any person on the planet.

Okkkk!

[Tabitha]

Okkkk!

Niko; in all the years that I have known you; did I ever lie to you?

 

You know that every word that proceeds from my lips is the Gospel Truth...

[Tom]

One can only dream to experience this:

 

 

 

Absolutely nuts unlike anything I've ever seen before. 26" of new snow, 18" in the past 3 hours!!!!!! Very fluffy, 20-25 to 1 ratios at least. I had to shovel out the heating vents to prevent them from getting blocked by snow.

 

 

[Tabitha]

One can only dream to experience this

Where did it happen?

[Tom]

Where did it happen?

Heartwellville, VT...right where the meso scale band that just sat there and poured snow out of the heavens....

 

 

[Tabitha]

I know Heartwellville..it is in very close proximity to Readsboro...elevation 1,122 feet...which famously saw a very localized Lower Green Mountain snow blitz in early March 1947...recording 50 inches from March 2 to March 6.

 

When all was said and done the snow depth from previous storms accrued to 80 inches.

[Tom]

Through the first week of March, only '13 & '14 and maybe '15 come close to where we are in terms of snow cover over the last 10 years.  In '15, the snow cover was largely encompassed in the east from the brutal Feb '15 arctic/snowmaggedon....

 

March '13...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201303/nsm_depth_2013030805_National.jpg

 

 

March '14...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201403/nsm_depth_2014030805_National.jpg

 

 

March '15...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015030805_National.jpg

 

 

 

As we kick the snowball down the road, with a solar minimum looming, planet cooling, increased high lat blocking and increased number of stochastic events...delayed springs may be more common, of course, you'll prob squeeze in a year or two in between colder stretches of year's but IMO we may see things trend this way in the future.

[FarmerRick]

What the heck is this nonsense!!??!   I'm ready for spring!!  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018030812/090/sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018030812/084/sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018030800/102/sn10_acc.us_nc.png

[Tom]

12z GFS suggesting our sub forum split between Spring and Winter on Thursday....the breeze off of Lake Michigan should feel nice...not!

 

 

 

 

By Friday, I can hear the "coughs" and early dismissals from work/school....

 

[Tom]

I know Heartwellville..it is in very close proximity to Readsboro...elevation 1,122 feet...which famously saw a very localized Lower Green Mountain snow blitz in early March 1947...recording 50 inches from March 2 to March 6.

 

When all was said and done the snow depth from previous storms accrued to 80 inches.

This guy cashed in big time...simply amazing

 

 

 

45" storm total in Heartwellville, VT at 2,230' elevation. Measured 35" at 11:45 PM last night and we had another 10" overnight and early AM. Net snow pack gain is 36" since the light, fluffy snow compacts under its own weight. Simply incredible! Total depth near 5 feet!

[Tabitha]

When easterly winds off the moisture laden Atlantic are forced to ascend up over the Green and White Mountains...and even the Berkshires of Massachusetts and the Litchfield Hills of NW Connecticut...some spectacular falls can occur.

 

Orographic lift is a an extremely important element in wringing out the maximum amount of moisture from a mid latitude cyclone traversing an area.

[Tom]

You know the saying "A picture is worth a thousand words?"  Well, this is one of them...I thought my neighborhood "tunnels" after the historic Feb opening around these parts were fun...these are at another level!

 

 

 

Per your request @TimNBCBoston dug a trench into backyard a little. That snow stick is 40" long and as you can see it goes quite a bit above it. ~56" total depth in that spot and there's several inches of hard, impenetrable ice at bottom of snow pack.

 

[Tom]

BTW, after the Spring Solstice, major late season cold on the way which is following the LRC way...folks on here will be begging for Spring...I heard Southwest Airlines has some nice deals going on...

 

[NEJeremy]

Planet cooling heh? That's an interesting forecast. When is this going to start happening? 

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201801

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201713

[Tabitha]

Planet cooling heh? That's an interesting forecast. When is this going to start happening? 

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201801

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201713

Those who live by the crystal ball soon learn to eat ground glass...

[Niko]

Cloudy and some light snow still falling. Temp @ 31F.

[NEJeremy]

Those who live by the crystal ball soon learn to eat ground glass...

I will gladly revisit this every year going forward...

[gimmesnow]

BTW, after the Spring Solstice, major late season cold on the way which is following the LRC way...folks on here will be begging for Spring...I heard Southwest Airlines has some nice deals going on...

 

 

Springs when it's wet and cold are the worst. If the air and water are in the 40s, I'll be out on the lake. But when we get this, I can't do anything. It sucks.

[Tabitha]

I will gladly revisit this every year going forward...

The admonition is in the general realm; not the discrete and insular...and is not directed at you...or anyone in particular.

 

Just another random nugget of wisdom from Tabitha; Daughter of the Goddess.