March 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tabitha]

The admonition is in the general realm; not the discrete and insular...and is not directed at you...or anyone in particular.

Just another random nugget of wisdom from Tabitha; Daughter of the Goddess.

I mean seriously; can you get stuff this good on the Twitter or the Tumbler?

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Every month this winter has started BN and then flipped to AN. If March does not, it will be standing alone in this LRC. Just sayin - I need some spring, lol

 

Mby's getting the Neb treatment, and watching the EC get buried AGAIN makes it all the worse. 

 

Not sure about the solar cycle delivering. Cold alone will not a great storm pattern make. Thus, see this season. Need to get back to the era when storms "came together" over the S Lakes or the thrill factor of the next 2-3 yrs will be lost imho

[Tabitha]

I will gladly revisit this every year going forward...

Always remember Jeremy; stay loyal to Me and you will move up; and move up fast.

[Tabitha]

@ Tom

 

Every month this winter has started BN and then flipped to AN. If March does not, it will be standing alone in this LRC. Just sayin - I need some spring, lol

 

Mby's getting the Neb treatment, and watching the EC get buried AGAIN makes it all the worse. 

 

Not sure about the solar cycle delivering. Cold alone will not a great storm pattern make. Thus, see this season. Need to get back to the era when storms "came together" over the S Lakes or the thrill factor of the next 2-3 yrs will be lost imho

Jasper, you have had enough snow to kill a horse.

 

About 4 times what the Omaha had....which, if you think about it, is really only a foot less snowy than Detroit in a normal winter.

[Tabitha]

As far as this winter goes; I gravely doubt I shall ever recover from all the trauma inflicted upon me from the near misses and various assorted disasters.

 

Were I to convalesce on the Riviera from now to eternity; I still do not think the horrors that characterized this winter shall ever be fully expunged from my consciousness; and consequently I shall be emotionally scarred for the balance of my time.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Every month this winter has started BN and then flipped to AN. If March does not, it will be standing alone in this LRC. Just sayin - I need some spring, lol

 

Mby's getting the Neb treatment, and watching the EC get buried AGAIN makes it all the worse.

 

Not sure about the solar cycle delivering. Cold alone will not a great storm pattern make. Thus, see this season. Need to get back to the era when storms "came together" over the S Lakes or the thrill factor of the next 2-3 yrs will be lost imho

Negative, not every month, Dec finished record cold and the flips came due to record or near record +PNA as well as lack of blocking. Spring patterns behave much different than winter patterns. Doubt the pattern warms end of the month.

 

My Solar comment was geared towards the scope of the globe as well as our country in general.

[Tabitha]

As far as this winter goes; I gravely doubt I shall ever recover from all the trauma inflicted upon me from the near misses and various assorted disasters.

Were I to convalesce on the Riviera from now to eternity; I still do not think the horrors that characterized this winter shall ever be fully expunged from my consciousness; and consequently I shall be emotionally scarred for the balance of my time.

I recall when I used to post maps and charts; hoping against hope that the storm might someday come. Of course it never did; and I am now utterly numb to the entiire endeavor; emotionally beaten as no person was ever beaten...and quite simply at a loss on how to explain what transpired here these last 4 months weather-wise.

[NEJeremy]

I mean seriously; can you get stuff this good on the Twitter or the Tumbler?

You always keep it interesting in here Tabitha

[Tabitha]

I remember when Farmer Rick and Grizzly would regularly like my posts; but I fear they may have taken up with The Clique...

 

Oh, Those Were The Days!

[Minny_Weather]

I remember when Farmer Rick and Grizzly would regularly like my posts; but I fear they may have taken up with The Clique...

 

Oh, Those Were The Days!

There's no clique in here against you.

[Money]

First Rule of the Clique: Always deny the existence of The Clique.

 

I have its structure carefully outlined.

 

Saban is the leader; Lincoln and Craig Omaha are the lieutenants...NebraskaWx is a foot soldier...while Snowlover76 is the gopher.

Post of the year Tabitha. Post. Of. The. Year.

[Minny_Weather]

First Rule of the Clique: Always deny the existence of The Clique.

 

I have its structure carefully outlined.

 

Saban is the leader; Lincoln and Craig Omaha are the lieutenants...NebraskaWx is a foot soldier...while Snowlover76 is the gopher.

Whoop, you're right! We'd better invade fast or your magic fort will be 100% complete!

[Minny_Weather]

Terminated my WxBell subscription cuz I haven't been too happy with them since they drastically increased their price, and I have better stuff to waste money on, such as my similarly higher electric bill. GFS and NAM are both showing measurable snow being a possibility on Sunday. Yayyyyyyy!

[Tom]

Latest Euro Weeklies...

 

 

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS is interesting.  It has moved heavy snow into eastern Iowa Sunday morning.  All other models are much weaker and/or west/south of my area.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Looks like a very active pattern setting up over the next few weeks. Whether it be rain or snow looks like lots of moisture!

[james1976]

Man those pics from the nor'easter are wild! I wanna experience one of those!

[james1976]

Last couple GFS runs are showing potential warning criteria snow for my area this weekend. Will the other models jump onboard?

[Hawkeye]

Last couple GFS runs are showing potential warning criteria snow for my area this weekend. Will the other models jump onboard?

 

I doubt it.  I'm not buying it, and neither are the local/nws mets.

[westMJim]

Here is the latest ice cover on the Great Lakes

 

https://lintvwood.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/great-lakes-ice-extent.gif

[james1976]

I doubt it. I'm not buying it, and neither are the local/nws mets.

DMX said they cant totally disregard the GFS cuz the 00z Euro took a slight bump toward the GFS. And they actually mentioned 6z GFS stayed similiar to 0z run. Im still not buying into it but today will be interesting to see if models can come to more of a consensus.

[Andrew NE]

NAM is moving more to the GFS solution for central IA with a decent band of snow. NAM amounts are probably a bit overdone per usual.

[Hawkeye]

NAM is moving more to the GFS solution for central IA with a decent band of snow. NAM amounts are probably a bit overdone per usual.

 

That's a big jump toward the GFS.  12k nam has the best snow in central Iowa, while the 3k nam brings it up to CR.

[james1976]

Nice trends

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON holding in west/central Iowa.

 

12z GFS holding farther ne, although a touch less robust.

[bud2380]

I'm gonna put the kiss of death on this thing and start a thread.  

[Tom]

Bud's storm thread for this weekends system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1760-march-10th-11th-surprise-storm/

 

 

[westMJim]

Here are some snow fall totals from around the state of Michigan. I have listed the total for this season so far and the average for the past 30 years (the 30 year average is from 1987 to 2017)

 

Grand Rapids 70.1”  30 year season average 77.4

Muskegon  96.3”  30 year season average 89.3”

Lansing  49.2”  30 year season average 50.1’

Detroit   58.5” 30 year season average 44.3”

Saginaw  35.4” 30 year season average 49.1”

Flint   75.9” 30 year season average 50.1

Alpena 49.2”  30 year season average 84.3”

Houghton Lake 39.0”  30 year season average 66.4”

Gaylord  100.9”  30 year season average 141.4”

Traverse City  92.6” 30 year season average 101.4”

West Branch  32.1”  30 year season average 50.2”

Petoskey  105.5”  30 year season average 122.8”

Sault Ste Marie  94.3”  30 year season average 120.4”

Marquette  127.6”  30 year season average 199.6”

 

Michigan runs the gambit from well above average Flint, Detroit to well below average Alpena Houghton Lake, Saginaw ect

[jaster220]

You know the saying "A picture is worth a thousand words?"  Well, this is one of them...I thought my neighborhood "tunnels" after the historic Feb opening around these parts were fun...these are at another level!

 

 

 

 

Man those pics from the nor'easter are wild! I wanna experience one of those!

 

So does everybody. Yes, I've gotten above avg snow, so I'm not filing any complaints on that, but there was a time when the S Lakes got dynamic storms on a regular basis, so the pains of watching from a distance was lessened. The HECS of Feb '78 for example. W Mich was still digging out themselves so there was no need to ogle over pics and reports from New England. I need some dynamics with my winter.. 

 

[jaster220]

Here are some snow fall totals from around the state of Michigan. I have listed the total for this season so far and the average for the past 30 years (the 30 year average is from 1987 to 2017)

 

Grand Rapids 70.1”  30 year season average 77.4

Muskegon  96.3”  30 year season average 89.3”

Lansing  49.2”  30 year season average 50.1’

Detroit   58.5” 30 year season average 44.3”

Saginaw  35.4” 30 year season average 49.1”

Flint   75.9” 30 year season average 50.1

Alpena 49.2”  30 year season average 84.3”

Houghton Lake 39.0”  30 year season average 66.4”

Gaylord  100.9”  30 year season average 141.4”

Traverse City  92.6” 30 year season average 101.4”

West Branch  32.1”  30 year season average 50.2”

Petoskey  105.5”  30 year season average 122.8”

Sault Ste Marie  94.3”  30 year season average 120.4”

Marquette  127.6”  30 year season average 199.6”

 

Michigan runs the gambit from well above average Flint, Detroit to well below average Alpena Houghton Lake, Saginaw ect

 

 

This looks more impressive than it was, due to warm ground, marginal temps, etc. Nonetheless, I'm sure it looked pretty much like winter in most of SEMI..nasso much across SWMI

 

[jaster220]

Negative, not every month, Dec finished record cold and the flips came due to record or near record +PNA as well as lack of blocking. Spring patterns behave much different than winter patterns. Doubt the pattern warms end of the month.

 

My Solar comment was geared towards the scope of the globe as well as our country in general.

 

Negative to your negative my friend. Not sure how it was across the big pond, but our Dec flipped hard 3 times actually. 1st to cold-n-snowy (7th-15th), then to warm and rainy (16th-23rd), then back to cold-n-snowy Christmas Eve (til Jan 7th). The flip to warmth in Jan and Feb ran to the end of those months, thus Dec was unique in it's reversal to cold. I'm hopeful for a flip to spring-like conditions. A Cardinal was singing his spring song this morning here at the office but the ground's all white..

[Niko]

So does everybody. Yes, I've gotten above avg snow, so I'm not filing any complaints on that, but there was a time when the S Lakes got dynamic storms on a regular basis, so the pains of watching from a distance was lessened. The HECS of Feb '78 for example. W Mich was still digging out themselves so there was no need to ogle over pics and reports from New England. I need some dynamics with my winter.. 

 

Maybe next year buddy.

[Niko]

Another possible Nor'Easter next week for the EC again. Lets see how this one plays one. This will be their third one if it happens.

[Tom]

Drier trends overall when you take a look at the last 10 runs of the GEFS across the TX Panhandle/KS/CO/NE region through the following Monday.  Seemingly, trending where it has been dry since back in October.  Hopefully things change as we head into April. 

[Tom]

The idea of major late season/early Spring cold, post Spring Solstice, is not fantasy and I would not discount more chances of wintry precip north of I-80 late month.  Models have been flipping back and forth, however, EPS has been pretty steady on the idea of the BN temp regime into Week 1-2.  During LRC cycle #1, the Polar Vortex built up in Canad during the first 10 days of November that ushered the coldest part of that cycle which last through the first 14 days of the month.  Fast forward in time, the two weeks following the Spring Solstice (spring version) may not be that far off except for maybe the southern Plains which will likely warm as there are seasonal differences this time during LRC cycle #4.  It's up to the forecaster to try and figure what to expect during the various cycles due to seasonal differences, blocking, MJO influences, etc.

 

CFSv2 weeklies pretty much agreeing...Week 4 I'm suspect as I think there will be a push of warmth as we head into April...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

[westMJim]

Here are some more total snow fall amounts from around Michigan and the great lakes area.

Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo 71.0” Holland 79.4” Muskegon 96.3”, Flint 76″ Detroit 58.5” Saginaw 35.4″, The following are from locations that should be taken with some caution as I can not back the totals up to make sure they are correct but this is what is being reported. Upper Michigan Tamarack 271.0″, Painesdale 258.8″ ,Mohawk 243.5″, Redridge 226.5″, Twin Lakes 218.2″, Quincy HIll 204.5″, Dollar Bay 189.0″, Newberry182.7″, Houghton (arpt.) 176.5″, Grand Marais 170.3″, Munising 162.0″, Bergland 135.8″, Ironwood 132.4″, Marquette 127.7, Tahquamenon State Park  127.2″, Ontonagon 118.0″, Paradise 116.5″, Ishpeming 115.8″, Big Bay 103.5″, Copper Harbor 101.9″.  From Norther Lower Michigan Maple City 130.8″, East Jordan 125.9″,Wellston 106.0, Kalkaska 96.8″, Traverse City 92.6″, Beulah 91.6″, Boyne City 89.0″, Charlevoix 84.9″, Northport 82.8”, Onaway 68.9”

Areas outside of Michigan South Bend 89.5″, Fort Wayne 28.8” Milwaukee 36.7” Madison, WI 28.9” and Chicago 30.7″

[Tom]

Enjoy the "brief" spring warm late week and into (hopefully) St. Patty's Day...both 00z GEFS/EPS bring back the cold...

 

 

[Tom]

Well, that was quick, there goes the St. Patty's day warmth...12z GFS wants to bring a wintry system into the central Plains next Sunday...LOL...man, I'm really considering leaving for AZ next week and not come back till later in April.  #Decisions

[gimmesnow]

Well, that was quick, there goes the St. Patty's day warmth...12z GFS wants to bring a wintry system into the central Plains next Sunday...LOL...man, I'm really considering leaving for AZ next week and not come back till later in April.  #Decisions

 

You can pry my snowboard from my cold, dead, April hands

[Tom]

You can pry my snowboard from my cold, dead, April hands

I’m curious, are the local ski hills still making snow?