March 2018 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Forum is starting to go quiet. I enjoy the arrival of spring, but am a little sad at the end of our winter discussions. Not quite the winter I was hoping for or expecting around here, but the fellow posters make it a fun hobby, even if we don’t always agree. Hope for a couple more snow events, but this time of year it doesn’t stick around for long.

[NH4NU]

18z GFS lays a pretty decent swath of snow Sun-Mon across NE Nebraska for what it's worth!  

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS lays a pretty decent swath of snow Sun-Mon across NE Nebraska for what it's worth!

Wash, rinse, repeat. Same places different storm. They have actually had quite a winter compared to many other parts of Nebraska. Right now we just need a moisture laden storm in any form.

[gimmesnow]

Forum is starting to go quiet. I enjoy the arrival of spring, but am a little sad at the end of our winter discussions. Not quite the winter I was hoping for or expecting around here, but the fellow posters make it a fun hobby, even if we don’t always agree. Hope for a couple more snow events, but this time of year it doesn’t stick around for long.

 

It sucks, but I'll be back next fall. I just don't care about severe weather and stuff. It's interesting, but it's not as fun as snow. Having fun snow time is a rare treat, you get to watch for storms and watch the weather and get excited about going snowmobiling, having a powder day skiing/snowboarding, x-country skiing, etc.

 

Even now, as everyone else noted, March snow is useless. It disappears way too fast. Even the ski hill is losing a decent amount, they're already at the point bald spots show up and they have to comb them over the next day with snow where it's thicker.

 

Snowboarding/skiing can really suck this time of year. The snow gets soft, everyone pushes it up and carves trenches and makes hills. Then the sun goes down and it all freezes like that. You can watch all the regulars start the season all excited, and this timeof year everyone is pretty down and just clinging onto what's left of the hill.

 

Tomorrow should be really good though, party cloudy and it's going to stay below 31. Hopefully it doesn't get too soft. It didn't melt enough that it'll turn back into ice when it refreezes and it'll still stay like snow cone snow.

 

General attitude is of disappointment for everyone who is still holding onto winter, specially because even if you get something, it's not going to last very long. Though we did get a record melt off with that last really good snow we had, and that wasn't even in March.

 

I sure hope we can go back toward more forward loaded winters. Getting the good snows at the end of February and into March is such a waste. You get a few days of fun and then it all goes away.

 

Hopefully the sun keeps heading the way it has been, and we can start to see more and more.

[NEJeremy]

[Tom]

This is a bit of a surprise...

 

 

 

Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
325 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

ILZ006-013-014-022-023-INZ001-131500-
Lake IL-DuPage-Cook-Will-Kankakee-Lake IN-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Wheaton, Chicago, Joliet,
Kankakee, and Gary
325 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Scattered Snow Showers Likely this Afternoon...

Snow showers are likely to develop over portions of the area this
afternoon as a weather disturbance moves over the area.
Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for brief bursts of
moderate to heavy snow, which may cause rapid reductions in the
visibility to under a mile and possibly some minor snow
accumulations. While the snow may struggle to accumulate on area
roads, it could cause slick conditions on area bridges and
overpasses. Given that this could have an impact on the afternoon
commute, motorists should plan on extra time to reach there
destination.

 

 

Latest 06z NAM 3km showing the band developing in NE IL...

 

[Tom]

RPM model also painting maybe 1-2" of LES...wasn't it right around this time last year we had that LES event??  Like last year, an inland Nor'Easter developed which tugged down cold air and LES.  Changing times???  I find it rather interesting that March's have turned colder around these parts and the fact that last year we had a similar wx pattern provides some evidence of such change.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Folks, if you thought for a chance winter was over, mother nature is not going to be your friend for the remainder of this month.  All the models are backing off any warmth in the longer range.  The long standing idea of back to back systems starting this weekend is lining up quite well on the models.  In fact, the models are trending to more snow than rain across portions of NE into IA for Fri-Sat.  Following this system, the anticipated Spring Solstice Storm is coming together later next week, of which, will not be ushering Spring-like wx, but rather, more wintry precip instead.  Let's dive in...

 

00z GFS...

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018031300/120/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018031300/132/qpf_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

 

 

06z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031300/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

I don't have the Euro maps, but I'm assuming it is showing snow as well with cold 850's across NE for the Fri-Sat system.  Might decided to start a thread for this system today if trends hold.

[Tom]

Here's the 00z Euro...

[Tom]

Sheesh, the 00z EPS is cold Week 2...

 

 

 

The silver lining with colder pattern and blocking, you get an active west/east storm track and a much wetter pattern develops across the central Plains and into the MW/GL's.

 

[Tom]

I wonder what the AGW crowd will be saying about Antarctica's wx this summer when the southern hemisphere will be locked in winter.  CFSv2 suggesting another very cold outlook, but I thought its supposed to be warming at the Poles???  Moreover, the model sees most of the continent in a trough-like pattern over the next 9 months suggesting more evidence we are heading towards global cooling.  IF this is right, and IF, the CFSv2 is right on the idea of cooler ENSO conditions into Autumn of next year, I really believe that we will see a significant drop in global temps by end of this year into the following year.

[BrianJK]

 

RPM model also painting maybe 1-2" of LES...wasn't it right around this time last year we had that LES event?? Like last year, an inland Nor'Easter developed which tugged down cold air and LES. Changing times??? I find it rather interesting that March's have turned colder around these parts and the fact that last year we had a similar wx pattern provides some evidence of such change.

 

 

 

Way too small a sample size to declare any sort of meaningful trend or change. Wasn’t too long ago that we had 10 consecutive days between 80-90 degrees this time of year. That was pretty amazing thinking back.

[Tom]

 

RPM model also painting maybe 1-2" of LES...wasn't it right around this time last year we had that LES event?? Like last year, an inland Nor'Easter developed which tugged down cold air and LES. Changing times??? I find it rather interesting that March's have turned colder around these parts and the fact that last year we had a similar wx pattern provides some evidence of such change.

 

 

 

Way too small a sample size to declare any sort of meaningful trend or change. Wasn’t too long ago that we had 10 consecutive days between 80-90 degrees this time of year. That was pretty amazing thinking back.

I agree, March '12 was a torch and a torchy year all together and the pattern that set up in Oct-Nov '11 lead to that warm start to Spring and eventually a hot summer.  Now, as I stated, this may just be the start of a longer (5-10 year) trend so we will have to look back in 2025 to see if I was right or not.

[BrianJK]

Sounds like a plan. We’ll meet up in Houghton in 2025 and reflect - lol

[Tom]

12z NAM flashing snow/ice potential...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/zr_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

More importantly, much needed moisture across the ag belt of NE/IA...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/qpf_acc.us_c.png

[CentralNebWeather]

12z NAM flashing snow/ice potential...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/zr_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

More importantly, much needed moisture across the ag belt of NE/IA...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/qpf_acc.us_c.png

Have not seen any local forecasters even talking about this.  NWS Hastings has a High of 51 and a chance of Showers on Friday.  I will have to check the afternoon disco.

[westMJim]

At this time NW Grand Rapids is getting a very heavy snow shower with large flakes and a lot of wind the temp here is now at 30.

[Tom]

At this time NW Grand Rapids is getting a very heavy snow shower with large flakes and a lot of wind the temp here is now at 30.

I'm about ready to get in on these convective snow showers in a bit.  Just came back from doing a little shopping before the streets get wet so I don't dirty up my clean ride!

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180313.1556.gif

[bud2380]

GFS really fizzles out as it gets to Iowa.  Seems about right.  I don't care if we get rain or snow, but we could use some  moisture here.  

[bud2380]

Canadian and ICON show the same thing.  So not only are we not getting our nice warmup models were showing, we're also just getting cold with no precip here.  Double whammy.  

[WBadgersW]

Getting some heavy snow showers while driving up to Grafton.

[jaster220]

Winter still hanging on strong up in the U.P....this shot is near Marquette, MI...

 

 

  Captain Obvious!! (hehehe) When isn't winter hanging on UP there?? The place that has icebergs dotting the shoreline at the end of June more than once..

 

RPM model also painting maybe 1-2" of LES...wasn't it right around this time last year we had that LES event??  Like last year, an inland Nor'Easter developed which tugged down cold air and LES.  Changing times???  I find it rather interesting that March's have turned colder around these parts and the fact that last year we had a similar wx pattern provides some evidence of such change.

 

 

 

 

I've posted on the parallels between this season and last and here's another one..March snowfall for mby this year = 4.7 and last year = 4.6

 

On this date a year ago, I had a solid 3" in Marshall as that slider system headed east on it's course to become the ECoastal major storm..same stuff basically, a year later..

 

This current storm is jackpotting a little east of the last one, but still, that region's scoring their 3rd major in 2 wks while we cheer on white scraps (or cheer for signs of spring, lol). I won't miss the pattern of these 2 seasons tbh, even if this one's total snowfall will be a bit better

[NH4NU]

OAX NWS tweet about an hour ago: “Pretty decent warmup coming tomorrow as highs reach the 60s in many areas. But we're also looking at potential for a snowstorm for some areas by Friday. March can be a crazy month! #newx #iawx”

[Niko]

Looks like another possible Nor'Easter next week for the EC once again. Meanwhile, Boston is getting pounded w more than a foot of snow. Blizzard Warnings for them.

 

Atm, no severe weather IMBY looking likely at all for the rest of this month as cold air remains put. Bummer! Hopefully, April can provide some severe potential alerts for my area.

[Minny_Weather]

The lake I live by is almost entirely unfrozen for the first time since December. Only one small patch of ice remains. It was a good season for ice fishers.

[Stacsh]

I have awoken with snow on the ground 1/2" to an 1") every morning for the last 5 days.  It is gone just after sun up.  Just had a heavy snow shower move through and put down 1/4" to 1/2".   It melted within 10 minutes of the sun popping out.  Wash Rinse Repeat.  Annoying weather pattern here in Michigan.  Lousy Smarch weather.  

[Tom]

Pockets of 35 dbz returns heading this way into N Cook...skies have darkened and day light has dimmed, has that feel of a summer time thunderstorm approaching...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180313.1824.gif

[CentralNebWeather]

All of the 12Z models, CMC, ICON, GFS, show plenty of moisture coming through the Central Plains in the next 10-15 days, (some rain, freezing rain, or snow).  We really need to start building up the moisture in these next couple of months in any form.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro putting down a large swath of precipitation down across all of Nebraska in the next 6 days (some parts rain, some parts snow).  

[Tom]

These are the most incredible snow fall rates I have seen in my life! Huge dendrites, wind, 1 block visibility, my goodnees...this is prob a taste of what the EC Blizzards are like.

[Tom]

RPM model nailed this somewhat looking plume right smack dab into Cook/Lake/DuPage country earlier today...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180313.1846.gif

[Tom]

Just measured 1.5” in less than 30 min! Epic snow fall right now. #mindblown

[Tony]

Just measured 1.5” in less than 30 min! Epic snow fall right now. #mindblown

Too bad I am out of town but enjoy the heavy snowfall. LE is the best if you get under those bands

[Tom]

Too bad I am out of town but enjoy the heavy snowfall. LE is the best if you get under those bands

Tony, this is something else! I’ve never seen it snow this hard in Chitown. It’s magical! Now I know what it feels like to live in the snow belts! I’ll take a final measurement when this settles down.

[jaster220]

I have awoken with snow on the ground 1/2" to an 1") every morning for the last 5 days.  It is gone just after sun up.  Just had a heavy snow shower move through and put down 1/4" to 1/2".   It melted within 10 minutes of the sun popping out.  Wash Rinse Repeat.  Annoying weather pattern here in Michigan.  Lousy Smarch weather. 

 

Not sure if you "typo'd" on the Smarch or intended, lol but either way I love it and thanks for backing up my other posts wrt how truly annoying this tweener pattern's been, at least for SWMI. There's been some decent stuff to our N and/or E

 

These are the most incredible snow fall rates I have seen in my life! Huge dendrites, wind, 1 block visibility, my goodnees...this is prob a taste of what the EC Blizzards are like.

 

Just measured 1.5” in less than 30 min! Epic snow fall right now. #mindblown

 

'grats over there buddy!  This time of year, gotta go dynamic or go home as they say..

[Tom]

Radar snap shot basically shows what I'm experiencing ATM...blob of yellow for the last 30 min or so...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180313.1902.gif

[Tom]

2.5” and counting...not letting up, with another squall approaching from the North...amazing what nature can do! If you were to take a napski about an hour ago, you would wake up thinking you warped in time!

[jaster220]

2.5” and counting...not letting up, with another squall approaching from the North...amazing what nature can do! If you were to take a napski about an hour ago, you would wake up thinking you warped in time!

 

What you talkin' bout?? Blue sky and sunshine here in St. Joe...#rolereversalinprogress 

[Tom]

What you talkin' bout?? Blue sky and sunshine here in St. Joe...#rolereversalinprogress 

Might actually pick up 3" from this squall in the span of 1 hour...hands down, one of the best snow squall events that I'll never forget.

[Tony]

Might actually pick up 3" from this squall in the span of 1 hour...hands down, one of the best snow squall events that I'll never forget.

March LE at its finest