Money Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 Might as well right? NAM: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041512&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt= 6z GFS http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041506&fh=90&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 12z Icon gives gosaints area another 8+ https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018041512&fh=78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 Narrow band with this one. Interesting to see where it sets up. Only couple days away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 12z gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041512&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt= 1+ qpf again with this system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 12z gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041512&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt= 1+ qpf again with this systemQuestionable 850 temps but very impressive dynamics to work with... Lol at the idea we could have a storm follow the baroclinic zone in mid April... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 Questionable 850 temps but very impressive dynamics to work with... Lol at the idea we could have a storm follow the baroclinic zone in mid April...Couple things going for it 1. Dynamics. 1+ qpf in short period 2. Snow cover: should still be at least some snow on the ground which should help it accumulate at least on grassy areas Things going against it: 1. Marginal 2m and 850 temps. Temps are in the 32-34 range but if dynamics are strong enough that could overcome this2. Time of day/April sun. Looks to come through in the middle of the day But 3 snowstorms in the first 2 1/2 weeks in April is impressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 Euro south of the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 The euro continues to advertise one heck of an intense snow band, with 1.2" of precip falling in six hours. I'm really looking forward to watching this system. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 18z nam http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041518&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.What you at now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 What you at now?I’m at around 16-17” and still ripping with the current storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.18z gfs gets you back in the game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 18z gfs gets you back in the gameI haven’t looked yet at the 18z but I see on the 12z GEFS many members are north of the 12z op run. The 12z GEM was north too. Certainly warrants keeping an eye on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 Here’s the 18z gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041518&fh=90&r=us_mw&dpdt= 4+ here again and 6+ for gosaints and SPS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 15, 2018 Report Share Posted April 15, 2018 Interesting how NAM & Euro have the snow oriented more SW-NE but GFS is NW-SE. At least for the heavier snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Rooting for the NAM/EURO Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lolAtmospheric dynamics will take it into consideration 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 I don’t even know why you would root for snow anymore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lolIt's mid-April. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 You guys are absolutely nuts. Buuut, hey, so is the weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 I am nuts i could take snow every month if i could. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 I am nuts i could take snow every month if i could.Move to Canada then. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.Mike Hollingshead right? Saw it too. Might have to keep an eye on it 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 0z Nam has a fun small band That would be tough to forecast http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041600&fh=78&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.Us weather people have the advantage of seeing things ahead of time, think about where you could drive your car to take shelter. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 0z Nam has a fun small band That would be tough to forecast http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041600&fh=78&r=us_mw&dpdt=Even I cash in close to 2 inches. My backyard is at average for this winter now. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Us weather people have the advantage of seeing things ahead of time, think about where you could drive your car to take shelter.Thankfully I do live right by 2 gas stations so I usually just take it there. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018041518/060/mucape.conus.png Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018041518/060/mucape.conus.pngThe ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Decent sampling this run.... Not overly enthused as far as big totals. Some warm layers wrapped into that aloft not to mention the surface. Of and probably a really narrow weenie band Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 The ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms.Right but with temperatures in the 30s thunderstorms could cool the atmosphere to freezing locally. Its happened before. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Theres our hail storms Then heavy snow lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Decent sampling this run....Not overly enthused as far as big totals. Some warm layers wrapped into that aloft not to mention the surface. Of and probably a really narrow weenie bandAgreed I do think it should accumulate right away especially if there’s still snow cover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.We were hit with the 6/29 hailstorm last year and had to get a new roof. Our homeowner's insurance went up 30%. I love severe weather but hate the damage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Icon looks to hit N IA/S MN pretty good https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018041600&fh=63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Icon looks to hit N IA/S MN pretty good https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018041600&fh=63 Its weird because the low is in the same position as the NAM is but its way further away north of the low. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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