TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Seems we have found ourselves in a typical rudderless May pattern... the marine layer might stay in place for the next 3 or 4 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Is it possible to have Tim and Jesse spazzing out over the same pattern? Would that be like crossing the streams? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Nice evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Is it possible to have Tim and Jesse a spazzing out over the same pattern? Would that be like crossing the streams? I know right... we are locked in a cloudy and gloomy pattern while everyone is lamenting the heat. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 I know right... we are locked in a cloudy and gloomy pattern while everyone is lamenting the heat. It’s been an historically warm and dry month so far, and it looks like it could continue that way after this little marine bump in the road. The past few days have been a nice break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Seems we have found ourselves in a typical rudderless May pattern... the marine layer might stay in place for the next 3 or 4 days. In SoCal, they call it May Gray. May and June are the coldest months of the year for the beach locations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 In SoCal, they call it May Gray. May and June are the coldest months of the year for the beach locations. Well aware. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 In SoCal, they call it May Gray. May and June are the coldest months of the year for the beach locations.Isn’t this your sig? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Speaking of coastal California, who knew after all these years it was actually Yanny Canyon? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Anybody remember this one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Anybody remember this one? GrayDay.jpgLovely lipstick 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 00Z GFS cuts off the trough offshore early next week in just the right spot. Good compromise. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Mostly sunny and 70 here this afternoon. A perfect May afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Operational 00z was pretty warm but the ensembles give me hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Euro!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Mostly sunny and 70 here this afternoon. A perfect May afternoon. Similar here, there were scattered clouds but it still ended up sunny and the warmth peaked in the evening around 6 - 7pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Rain pounding on the roof here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 It's actually raining! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 EPS is still far from buying into any sort of coherent solution beyond day 6. The 06z GFS ensembles trended a bit warmer in the mid range though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 It’s early, but so far, May 2018 is the coldest ever recorded across the Baffin Bay in the JRA55 dataset. Also the 2nd warmest across the lower-48, and 4th warmest across the high Arctic. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 It’s early, but so far, May 2018 is the coldest ever recorded across the Baffin Bay in the JRA55 dataset. Also the 2nd warmest across the lower-48, and 4th warmest across the high Arctic.Any idea when that feature finally dissipates? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 The Atlantic Hadley Cell has retracted way equatorward, almost back to the glory days now. The JMA seasonal continues the trend into summer, while the Pacific Hadley Cell remains bloated and slow. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Any idea when that feature finally dissipates?For M/J/J, we need to reduce off-equator WPAC convection for a sustained reversal. It’s less of an issue for the PNW in A/S/O, though. No correlation to PNW/PNA exists during that period. And come winter the factors governing it are completely different and impossible to see this far in advance. In some winters, the NPAC dominates your wavetrain, and in other years (like last winter) the Siberia/NAO exchanges dominate your wavetrain. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 For M/J/J, we need to reduce off-equator WPAC convection for a sustained reversal. It’s less of an issue in A/S/O. And come winter the factors governing it are completely different and impossible to see this far in advance.So you don’t know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 So you don’t know.Correct, I don’t know when it will reverse as an early summer, low frequency background state. I suspect it will likely reverse in August, as it has done this every year since the mid-1990s, before resuming again during the autumn. However, if it doesn’t reverse in August (as some models are suggesting), and we maintain the -AMM/-AMO through the autumn, then that’s a huge break from the last 20+ years of climatology, and would indicate an imminent return to the tropical forcing of the 1960-1990 era, or at least a departure from the 1996-present seasonality of tropical forcing. So in that respect, it could be a good sign if if continues, despite the short term pain it would cause you. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Here’s what I mean. The S/O/N AMM regime has been positive since the mid-1990s. Right now the AMM is very negative..almost -3. If this continues into S/O/N, we’re looking at a very different circulation from the last 20+ years, right when the cold season wavetrain would be developing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 The reason I’m skeptical right now is that there’s been no trend in the AMM during A/M/J. Plenty of negative regimes during the spring/early summer during the last 20yrs. Starting during the second half of July, the 1995-present climate regime starts diverging to +AMM, and it’s well established by the second half of August. So if we hold this -AMM through August - November..that would be huge. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 12Z GFS is going to be a nice run. I can already tell. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 12Z GFS is going to be a nice run. I can already tell.Will be troughier D10-16, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Will be troughier D10-16, though. Troughing continually getting pushed from the 5-10 day range to the 10-16 day range is a great sign it will never come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 It kind of boggles the mind to think of how warm this May will end up if the 12Z GFS were to verify verbatim. Basically looking at a June 2015 type of anomaly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Only a couple of raindrops so far here this morning. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Looking like a cloudy day for the kids at the zoo. Twin bros 3rd birthday. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 That mid-1990s shift in the late summer circulation is also evident in the EPO. Nice demonstration of the NPAC/NATL relationship on low frequency timescales. Even though ESRL’s Warm Pool index stops in 2008, you can easily see the connection. WPAC warm pool convective exhaust resonates with and/or amplified a crapload of non-linear feedbacks in the extratropics. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 FWIW, the reconstructed extrapolations of these indices reveals the well-known sine wave tendency of ocean/atmosphere variability. The amplitudes vary, but the periodicity is usually similar from a spatial perspective. The current wave happens to be very high in amplitude..probably the highest in several centuries. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 FWIW, the reconstructed extrapolations of these indices reveals the well-known sine wave tendency of ocean/atmosphere variability. The amplitudes vary, but the periodicity is usually similar from a spatial perspective. The current wave happens to be very high in amplitude..probably the highest in several centuries.I don’t think anyone knows what you’re talking about right now, brosef. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 I don’t think anyone knows what you’re talking about right now, brosef.You know what the EPO and warm pool are, correct? I’m also 100% certain you’re familiar with the concept of a simple sine wave. I’m describing the variability of the ocean/atmosphere circulation system, and how said variability emulates a quasi-invariant sine wave structure across time. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Raining fairly hard here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Nice to see the GEM coming around to a warm holiday weekend. We need to bring the ECMWF around now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Raining fairly hard here. Those are some pretty heavy returns just over the pass. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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