May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

That d11-16 pattern on the GFS looks like something Jesse drew himself.

[jcmcgaffey]

Troughing continually getting pushed from the 5-10 day range to the 10-16 day range is a great sign it will never come.

Just like through the winter when any snow and cold starts showing up in the models.

[Jesse]

Nice to see the GEM coming around to a warm holiday weekend.

 

We need to bring the ECMWF around now.

It’s a done deal.

[Jesse]

That d11-16 pattern on the GFS looks like something Jesse drew himself.

The 6-11 day pattern looked like that on yesterday’s 12z.

 

Not a good sign for a pattern change when it keeps getting pushed back like this.

[jcmcgaffey]

Raining fairly hard here.

Of all the locations it could rain the weather puts a small spot right over your place while almost the rest of the northwest is dry. I felt like that last year when I swear the convergence zone followed me around the Puget Sound the entire winter and spring.

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles take a pretty big step toward the operational. It is clear where this is going.

[Front Ranger]

Raining fairly hard here.

 

Pattern continues of your area seeing way more rain relative to normal than almost everywhere else. 

 

Karma is kind.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is coming back to the good side... after an excursion to the dark side on the 00Z run.

 

Nice improvement at least for day 7 and 8 so far.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is coming back to the good side... after an excursion to the dark side on the 00Z run.

 

Nice improvement at least for day 7 and 8 so far.

It doesn’t bother you at all that we have never seen a May this warm and dry before in recorded history?

 

This month is going to be absolutely off the charts. More than any cold and wet month has been in decades. Not even a twinge of concern?

[Jesse]

Hedonism to the greatest degree. It would be interesting to see what it is like within that sort of head space.

[TT-SEA]

It doesn’t bother you at all that we have never seen a May this warm and dry before in recorded history?

 

This month is going to be absolutely off the charts. More than any cold and wet month has been in decades. Not even a twinge of concern?

Not even a twinge. It is what it is. Going to enjoy any sun nature throws my way. Getting tired of the clouds already.

[Jesse]

Not even a twinge. It is what it is. Going to enjoy any sun nature throws my way. Getting tired of the clouds already.

 

You said sin at first. Bit of a freudian slip.

[Farmboy]

After having to endure several overcast days, we'll be nicely rewarded it seems...

[TT-SEA]

You said sin at first. Bit of a freudian slip.

You hit refresh very fast! That was my phone and I corrected it in seconds.

[TT-SEA]

After having to endure several overcast days, we'll be nicely rewarded it seems...

I hope so... enough with the clouds day after day. That is what have for most of fall, winter, and early spring.

[Jesse]

You hit refresh very fast! That was my phone and I corrected it in seconds.

 

You have done that you me many times when I have made typos. Karma. Plus that one was especially fitting.

[TT-SEA]

You have done that you me many times when I have made typos. Karma. Plus that one was especially fitting.

Not fitting.

 

Now looks like it will be cloudy and wet through Monday in my area per the ECMWF. All of a sudden an entire week of crap just descended upon us in what is supposed to be such a great month. I will be so ready for sun and warmth by Tuesday.

 

Dark as sh*t here for the 3rd day in a row. And Sunday looks particularly dark and dreary now. I will not be guilted into cheering for clouds and rain here! This dark crap is straight up depressing in the warm season. Normal at times... and depressing.

[Jesse]

I am sure James Jones appreciates the gravity of this situation.

[Farmboy]

Very gloomy day today. Some raindrops. Overall, a pretty depressing day. There are scientific studies that show lack of sun can lead to vitamin D deficiency which can lead to depression..

[Kayla]

I don't think I've heard of anyone so troubled by some overcast skies... It's been a very wet/snowy and cloudy year out this way but I'm outside training/flying year around in the elements and I've never had an issue. Life is way too short to worry about such a thing. 

[jcmcgaffey]

Not fitting.

 

Now looks like it will be cloudy and wet through Monday in my area per the ECMWF. All of a sudden an entire week of crap just descended upon us in what is supposed to be such a great month. I will be so ready for sun and warmth by Tuesday.

 

Dark as sh*t here for the 3rd day in a row. And Sunday looks particularly dark and dreary now. I will not be guilted into cheering for clouds and rain here! This dark crap is straight up depressing in the warm season. Normal at times... and depressing.

We have seen more sun out here in Seattle but it has still been a very cloudy damp last few days. That is the one thing that is frustrating about this time of year is the persistence of clouds but no rain. If it’s going to be cloudy and dark I want rain with it.

[Jesse]

I don't think I've heard of anyone so troubled by some overcast skies... It's been a very wet/snowy and cloudy year out this way but I'm outside training/flying year around in the elements and I've never had an issue. Life is way too short to worry about such a thing. 

 

I am being told that life is way too short to worry about something like climate change (a lot of scientists seem awfully worried) and instead we should be more worried about clouds ruining our picnics.

[MossMan]

Not fitting.

 

Now looks like it will be cloudy and wet through Monday in my area per the ECMWF. All of a sudden an entire week of crap just descended upon us in what is supposed to be such a great month. I will be so ready for sun and warmth by Tuesday.

 

Dark as sh*t here for the 3rd day in a row. And Sunday looks particularly dark and dreary now. I will not be guilted into cheering for clouds and rain here! This dark crap is straight up depressing in the warm season. Normal at times... and depressing.

Sun has popped in and out the last hour here.

[TT-SEA]

I don't think I've heard of anyone so troubled by some overcast skies... It's been a very wet/snowy and cloudy year out this way but I'm outside training/flying year around in the elements and I've never had an issue. Life is way too short to worry about such a thing. 

 

Life is also too short to worry about the Earth going through its endless cycles of warming and cooling.    Its been much warmer than this... and much colder.   And it will go on for billions of years after we are gone.   So why does a warming cycle now even matter?   Other than it makes life a little more enjoyable for the short time we are here.   It sure as hell does not matter to the Earth.   Everything we see will be buried in ice again relatively soon in geological terms.     I will take whatever nice weather that I can get.   

[James Jones]

I am sure James Jones appreciates the gravity of this situation.

 

Right now I'm just trying to work through the shocking revelation that a foothills location east of Seattle is experiencing cloudier and wetter conditions than the rest of the region. Meanwhile the marine layer breaking up down here, should be a partly sunny afternoon after suffering through two straight days of overcast and mild temps.

 

On the topic of warm Mays it's interesting that there were quite a few of them in the late 19th century. 1884, 1885, 1888, 1890, and 1897 were all major torches even by today's standards (only looking at highs here because of UHI differences). 

[TT-SEA]

On the day that the asteroid hit the Yucatan Peninsula that eventually killed the dinosaurs... almost instantly there was a cloud of dust and debris racing around the Earth.   I came through the PNW about 6 hours after impact and the temperature went up to 300 degrees and burned or killed up almost everything within a matter of hours.   Followed by nuclear winter for 30 years.   Temperatures at the equator were in the 20s.  

 

The universe is a b*tch!     We are just along for the ride for a brief second.   Might as enjoy what you get because we are nothing to the universe.  

 

I only worry about impacts to my plans.   The Earth will take care of itself and then eventually extinguish human life.

[TT-SEA]

Right now I'm just trying to work through the shocking revelation that a foothills location east of Seattle is experiencing cloudier and wetter conditions than the rest of the region. Meanwhile the marine layer breaking up down here, should be a partly sunny afternoon after suffering through two straight days of overcast and mild temps.

 

On the topic of warm Mays it's interesting that there were quite a few of them in the late 19th century. 1884, 1885, 1888, 1890, and 1897 were all major torches even by today's standards (only looking at highs here because of UHI differences). 

 

 

Not a revelation.

 

But why I will not be guilted into cheering for crappy weather.   It always comes here.   It does not need a cheerleading squad.   It does just fine on its own.  

[Jesse]

On the day that the asteroid hit the Yucatan Peninsula that eventually killed the dinosaurs... almost instantly there was a cloud of dust and debris racing around the Earth.   I came through the PNW about 6 hours after impact and the temperature went up to 300 degrees and burned or killed up almost everything within a matter of hours.   Followed by nuclear winter for 30 years.   Temperatures at the equator were in the 20s.  

 

The universe is a b*tch!     We are just along for the ride for a brief second.   Might as enjoy what you get because we are nothing to the universe.  

 

I only worry about impacts to my plans.   The Earth will take care of itself and then eventually extinguish human life.

 

Seems like a 24/7 job.

[Jesse]

 

But why I will not be guilted into cheering for crappy weather.   It always comes here.   It does not need a cheerleading squad.   It does just fine on its own.  

 

The same thing could be said for warmer than average weather.

[Jesse]

Right now I'm just trying to work through the shocking revelation that a foothills location east of Seattle is experiencing cloudier and wetter conditions than the rest of the region. Meanwhile the marine layer breaking up down here, should be a partly sunny afternoon after suffering through two straight days of overcast and mild temps.

 

On the topic of warm Mays it's interesting that there were quite a few of them in the late 19th century. 1884, 1885, 1888, 1890, and 1897 were all major torches even by today's standards (only looking at highs here because of UHI differences). 

 

That's interesting. I will have to look at some of those years. The more "recent" biggies I've been looking at most are 1947, 1958 and 1992. Two out of three of those years continued on with well above average conditions through the summer.

[Deweydog]

I don't think I've heard of anyone so troubled by some overcast skies... It's been a very wet/snowy and cloudy year out this way but I'm outside training/flying year around in the elements and I've never had an issue. Life is way too short to worry about such a thing.

Insert above the fray joke here.

[Jesse]

Insert above the fray joke here.

 

Wouldn't work. She is actually asserting a valid opinion rather than pretending like she's above even having one.

[Farmboy]

Life is also too short to worry about the Earth going through its endless cycles of warming and cooling.    Its been much warmer than this... and much colder.   And it will go on for billions of years after we are gone.   So why does a warming cycle now even matter?   Other than it makes life a little more enjoyable for the short time we are here.   It sure as hell does not matter to the Earth.   Everything we see will be buried in ice again relatively soon in geological terms.     I will take whatever nice weather that I can get.   

[Farmboy]

I don't think I've heard of anyone so troubled by some overcast skies... It's been a very wet/snowy and cloudy year out this way but I'm outside training/flying year around in the elements and I've never had an issue. Life is way too short to worry about such a thing. 

 

Aside from this past winter, I think your area gets way more sun than western Washington overall...

[James Jones]

Not a revelation.

 

But why I will not be guilted into cheering for crappy weather.   It always comes here.   It does not need a cheerleading squad.   It does just fine on its own.  

 

The weather is going to do what it does regardless of who cheers for what. Which also means you can like whatever you want.

[TT-SEA]

The weather is going to do what it does regardless of who cheers for what. Which also means you can like whatever you want.

 

 

Exactly!

 

Which is why I will not be guilted into cheering for crappy weather here.   Its the default.  

[Deweydog]

Wouldn't work. She is actually asserting a valid opinion rather than pretending like she's above even having one.

Bitching and complaining certainly is the ultimate right of passage around here.

 

My opinions are well known. I like weather. Preferably variable weather of a seasonal variety. Cold, stormy winters and warm dry summers. Forgive me for not driving the point home every hour on the hour or asserting its moral high ground. I'd rather use that time more usefully to make smart a** comments.

[Kayla]

Insert above the fray joke here.

In other words, just deal with it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here is the latest 15 day PNA forecast from the 12z EURO EPS. It's been showing negative PNA for the 10-15 day range for a while but it keeps delaying it. Now it's basically showing positive PNA through the next 15 days as we head into early June.

 

[Kayla]