May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Haha. Well, you guys might. Or at the very least, you’ll probably get a throwback to the 2008-12 period.

 

I’m not sure about us. The coldest periods of the LIA did have chilly/wet summers here, but our winters were actually very similar to today because the low frequency boreal winter circulation was much less conductive for cold here.

 

The closest example of the LIA cold season circulation is the winter of 1968/69. It just doesn’t direct much cold air this way, despite having niño-ish tendencies in terms of the tropical forcing.

We'll be due for a July 2009 redux by then. Makes sense..,

[Jesse]

We'll be due for a July 2009 redux by then. Makes sense..,

That will probably happen this year.

[Deweydog]

That will probably happen this year.

Nah. We shot our extremely extreme wad last August.

[Jesse]

Nah. We shot our extremely extreme wad last August.

Feels like the stars could align again if July is indeed our hottest summer month relative to average this year. But who knows.

[TT-SEA]

Waste of a trough... might as well bring copious rain if its going to be troughy.  

 

Here is Thursday as an example... probably nicer than today.   And Friday looks even nicer.   

 

 

 

 

 

Also keep in mind that the ECMWF seems to run 3-4 degrees too cool with our high temps on this side.   It shows 64 or 65 today for SEA and PDX and its already 61 at both.

[Deweydog]

Scary stuff.

[Jesse]

Its so lame always getting half the story on these model runs. I would rather have no information or just look myself than always getting skewed information.

 

The same goes for when people like Snow Wizard or snow squall are posting blatantly cold biased stuff in the winter.

[TT-SEA]

Saturday is also really nice on the 12Z ECMWF.    

 

No rain at all... and partly to mostly sunny with ULL spinning around offshore.     Wednesday - Saturday are fairly sunny and pleasant on this run.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Its so lame always getting half the story on these model runs. I would rather have no information or just look myself than always getting skewed information.

 

The same goes for when people like Snow Wizard or snow squall are posting blatantly cold biased stuff in the winter.

 

What would you like to see?    

 

I am just looking at each afternoon.     The 12Z ECMWF shows a total of .01 in the Portland area through next Sunday (surface maps updated through day 8 right now).

 

I can show you any map you want.  

[TT-SEA]

Total rain over the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF.    Basically nothing from Seattle southward.   Nothing at all for the Oregon Cascades.

 

The rain up here almost all comes on Wednesday morning in a weak c-zone.

 

[Jesse]

What would you like to see?

 

I am just looking at each afternoon. The 12Z ECMWF shows a total of .01 in the Portland area through next Sunday (surface maps updated through day 8 right now).

 

I can show you any map you want.

Well you didn’t show Tuesday, Wednesday or Friday so I’m guessing those days looked cooler.

 

My favorite Euro link isn’t working again. And yes I know about the tropical Timtits one but I’m not a fan.

[TT-SEA]

Well you didn’t show Tuesday, Wednesday or Friday so I’m guessing those days looked cooler.

 

My favorite Euro link isn’t working again. And yes I know about the tropical Timtits one but I’m not a fan.

 

Each day from Wednesday through Saturday is a little warmer than the previous day.  

 

Here is Friday as you requested... dry and partly to mostly sunny.  

 

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

I agree that it would be annoying to go through a troughy pattern with no significant rainfall to show for it. Although if this is indeed a longer term (3 weeks or so) pattern shift I think it will come eventually.

[TT-SEA]

 

Here are the highs at PDX per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Tues - 65

Wed - 68

Thur - 71

Fri - 71

Sat - 74

 

All warmer than what it shows for today... except for Tuesday which is the same.

[Jesse]

Here are the highs at PDX per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Tues - 65

Wed - 68

Thur - 71

Fri - 71

Sat - 74

Pretty nice stretch. Next front must move on Sunday on this run.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty nice stretch. Next front must move on Sunday on this run.

Nope... just a weak marine push that day. No rain at all... highs in mid to upper 60s.

 

Then 72 and sunny on Monday.

[Front Ranger]

What would you like to see?

 

I am just looking at each afternoon. The 12Z ECMWF shows a total of .01 in the Portland area through next Sunday (surface maps updated through day 8 right now).

 

I can show you any map you want.

The great thing about Jesse is you don't even have to try to offend/annoy/troll him. It just happens - even the most innocuous post can do it.

[Jesse]

The great thing about Jesse is you don't even have to try to offend/annoy/troll him. It just happens - even the most innocuous post can do it.

That could be said about a lot of people here. And there are many posts that could be incorrectly misinterpreted as a sign of being offended or annoyed. As is the case here.

 

You don’t think Tim cherry picks some of the information he posts? I recall you making several lengthy posts about it just yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

That could be said about a lot of people here. And there are many posts that could be incorrectly misinterpreted as a sign of being offended or annoyed. As is the case here.

 

You don’t think Tim cherry picks some of the information he posts? I recall you making several lengthy posts about it just yesterday.

I started this by posting the ECMWF surface maps for the day at the deepest point in the trough... which appears to be Thursday.

 

Surprisingly nice.

[Jesse]

I started this by posting the ECMWF surface maps for the day at the deepest point in the trough... which appears to be Thursday. Surprisingly nice.

The trough on Thursday is so deep it’s almost cutting off over CA on this run. Probably why that day has trended a little warmer.

[TT-SEA]

The trough on Thursday is so deep it’s almost cutting off over CA on this run. Probably why that day has trended a little warmer.

 

Its just slightly warmer than the 00Z run.   

 

Same basic weather on both runs... party to mostly sunny and pleasant.

[Deweydog]

Payback for our stratus-fest of last week perhaps?

 

I gave fair warning...

[Front Ranger]

That could be said about a lot of people here. And there are many posts that could be incorrectly misinterpreted as a sign of being offended or annoyed. As is the case here.

 

You don’t think Tim cherry picks some of the information he posts? I recall you making several lengthy posts about it just yesterday.

 

Of course he does. But the post you responded to today didn't strike me as an example of that. Seemed like a random outburst when you called it "lame", which of course didn't mean you were annoyed at all. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Currently 66F and sunny here. Looks like lots of low cloud cover in places further south but the south island again remains largely cloud free (aside from some thin upper level clouds).

 

[Jesse]

Of course he does. But the post you responded to today didn't strike me as an example of that. Seemed like a random outburst when you called it "lame", which of course didn't mean you were annoyed at all.

Must be the time of day when you log on and try to start debates again. I pass.

[Front Ranger]

At this point, the upcoming troughy period doesn't look terribly impressive. Just looking at the EPS and GEFS, there's only a weak signal beyond day 8 for troughing over the PNW.

 

But certainly a much cooler pattern relative to climo than this month has seen.

[Front Ranger]

Must be the time of day when you log on and try to start debates again. I pass.

 

Just commentary. No debate sought or needed.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 64... 12Z ECMWF showed 65 there for a high today.   

 

You can usually add 3-4 degrees to the highs shown on the ECMWF at SEA in the warm season.  

[Front Ranger]

I wish I could see snow in June.

 

Interesting that it’s 2001 again. It worked great as a winter/spring analog, and it also happens to be one of the best QBO matches to 2018. I’ve been giving it less weight recently due to solar/atlantic differences, but maybe the Pacific Warm Pool and QBO are still running the show.

 

FWIW, I agree that 2000-01 was a good winter analog, but for the pattern across the U.S. this spring, it hasn't been great. Especially the past couple months - radically different than 2001.

[Jesse]

At this point, the upcoming troughy period doesn't look terribly impressive. Just looking at the EPS and GEFS, there's only a weak signal beyond day 8 for troughing over the PNW.

 

But certainly a much cooler pattern relative to climo than this month has seen.

Day 10 of the 12z EPS:

 

 

About as strong a troughy signal as you will see at that range.

[Phil]

Its so lame always getting half the story on these model runs. I would rather have no information or just look myself than always getting skewed information.

 

The same goes for when people like Snow Wizard or snow squall are posting blatantly cold biased stuff in the winter.

Troughy. Cooler than average temperatures with cool nightime lows and average daytime highs at first, then morphing into a more marine-like situation with cooler days and reduced diurnal spread.

 

First anticyclone retrogression finishes by D10, then probably a few days of warmth before the next wave dispersion and retrogression/troughing cycle begins, and then rinse + repeat.

[Front Ranger]

Troughy. Cooler than average temperatures with cool nightime lows and average daytime highs at first, then morphing into a more marine-like situation with cooler days and reduced diurnal spread.

 

First anticyclone retrogression finishes by D10, then probably a few days of warmth before the next wave dispersion and retrogression/troughing cycle begins, and then rinse + repeat.

 

So it will cool down after it warms up after it cools down?

 

- Dewey

[Front Ranger]

Day 10 of the 12z EPS:

 

34B92B7D-8858-43DC-B9D2-3244B021024C.png

 

About as strong a troughy signal as you will see at that range.

 

As I said, I was looking at a combination of the GEFS and EPS, and not just day 10...the whole period beyond day 8.

 

Here's the GEFS at day 10.

 

 

Not saying there won't be a troughy period by any means, it just looks pretty run of the mill at this point.

[Jesse]

As I said, I was looking at a combination of the GEFS and EPS, and not just day 10...the whole period beyond day 8.

 

Here's the GEFS at day 10.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

Not saying there won't be a troughy period by any means, it just looks pretty run of the mill at this point.

 

This post is pretty run of the

 

Phil!!!!!

[Deweydog]

At least there are some cool cherries out there to pick at the moment. Little victories.

 

#savethetrees

[Phil]

12z EPS meteograms for SEA/PDX. No 80s in sight.

 

There is a small minority of super ridgy members in the long range, which skews the mean upwards, but discounting those outliers, it looks like an extended period of perfect weather upcoming.

 

 

[Jesse]

12z EPS meteograms for SEA/PDX. No 80s in sight.

 

There is a small minority of super ridgy members in the long range, which skews the mean upwards, but discounting those outliers, it looks like an extended period of perfect weather upcoming.

 

 

 

 

Need to add 3-30 degrees to all of these highs.

[Jesse]

At least there are some cool cherries out there to pick at the moment. Little victories.

 

#savethetrees

 

If you opened up to people on here about stuff you were passionate about, you would be open to jabs like these too.

 

Not my fault you are afraid. I understand the need to have someplace in your life where you are cool. 

[Front Ranger]

It's been awhile, so it's easy to forget what June troughs are capable of.