May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

As I said, I was looking at a combination of the GEFS and EPS, and not just day 10...the whole period beyond day 8.

 

Here's the GEFS at day 10.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

Not saying there won't be a troughy period by any means, it just looks pretty run of the mill at this point.

“Impressive” is a pretty subjective term. This was never going to be second coming of 2011. We’re lacking the necessary low frequency niña background state this summer. This is just intraseasonal/MJO forcing propagating over a ~ 40-45 day periodicity underneath lower frequency AAM transfer states.

 

So we’ll have this western troughing (with intermittent breaks) until forcing propagates east of the dateline, probably ~ 20-25 days from now, but it could cycle slower or faster depending on the amplitude of the wave and how far east it is before transferring from a Wave1 to a Wave2 structure.

[Deweydog]

If you opened up to people on here about stuff you were passionate about, you would be open to jabs like these too.

 

Not my fault you are afraid. I understand the need to have someplace in your life where you are cool.

I love trees. I'm guessing I've spent a lot more on them than you have.

 

None of us are cool. Some are just a little more content than others with going with the flow.

[Front Ranger]

12z EPS meteograms for SEA/PDX. No 80s in sight.

 

There is a small minority of super ridgy members in the long range, which skews the mean upwards, but discounting those outliers, it looks like an extended period of perfect weather upcoming.

 

 

 

That does look nice.

 

Still hard to believe that SEA managed 9 straight days in the 50s in June 2008.

[Front Ranger]

“Impressive” is a pretty subjective term. This was never going to be second coming of 2011. We’re lacking the necessary low frequency niña background state this summer. This is just intraseasonal/MJO forcing propagating over a ~ 40-45 day periodicity underneath lower frequency AAM transfer states.

 

On the 1-10 scale of Phil hype, this upcoming troughy period has probably only been a 6, I'll give you that. 

[Phil]

FWIW, be careful with ensemble means after D6-7, especially during patterns like this (which the models struggle with).

 

I know I keep regurgitating this, but it’s very common for the ensemble mean to diverge significantly from the ensemble median, which can mislead forecasters into making bogus interpretations.

[Jesse]

I love trees. I'm guessing I've spent a lot more on them than you have.

 

None of us are cool. Some are just a little more content than others with going with the flow.

 

It's not a competition.

 

Aside from that, at some level you probably agree with me that the last five lengthy hot and dry seasons have been a bit much, whether or not it means "treemageddon".

 

If that is the case, the debate is just over how we are thinking/talking about the issue, which is kind of silly, because that will always be different from person to person.

[TT-SEA]

That does look nice.

 

Still hard to believe that SEA managed 9 straight days in the 50s in June 2008.

Add 3-4 degrees. Check back in 10 days to verify.

[Jesse]

Add 3-4 degrees. Check back in 10 days to verify.

 

Sounds like the end of a recipe in a cookbook for very patient people.

[Phil]

FWIW, I agree that 2000-01 was a good winter analog, but for the pattern across the U.S. this spring, it hasn't been great. Especially the past couple months - radically different than 2001.

Well, it depends on the scale you draw reference from.

 

You’ll rarely (if ever) maintain subseasonal synchronicity between analogs for more than 3-4 months at a time, so I’m assuming you’re talking about 2001 as an analog for subseasonal-scale pattern/forcing oscillations, to which you’d be correct (re: divergence in MJO periodicity after the spring equinox).

 

If you’re looking at this from a seasonal perspective, then you probably have to change your approach, IE: filter out the subseasonal stuff and work inward from the big picture.

[Phil]

On the 1-10 scale of Phil hype, this upcoming troughy period has probably only been a 6, I'll give you that.

It’s about what I expected so far. A run of the mill cool/troughy period, nothing outlandish.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

On the 1-10 scale of Phil hype, this upcoming troughy period has probably only been a 6, I'll give you that. 

 

Let's hope he can beat that score this winter, esp if the Greenland vortex isn't permanent.

[Jesse]

It’s about what I expected so far. A run of the mill cool/troughy period, nothing outlandish.

 

That has definitely been a major theme lately. Our cool periods are usually pretty unremarkable/average, but it's hard to have a warm period without at least flirting with some sort of record.

[Front Ranger]

That has definitely been a major theme lately. Our cool periods are usually pretty unremarkable/average, but it's hard to have a warm period without at least flirting with some sort of record.

 

Feb 2018 and Jan 2017 cold periods at least managed to be fairly impressive. Impressiveness depending on location and subjective interpretation of the word "impressive".

[Jesse]

Feb 2018 and Jan 2017 cold periods at least managed to be fairly impressive. Impressiveness depending on location and subjective interpretation of the word "impressive".

 

I think your department is in charge of defining/updating that stuff. Get on it!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Happy Memorial Day Weekend! Looks like the 12z EURO backed off on the rainfall for this coming week. There wasn't much going to be much anyways, especially down here in the Willamette Valley. Temperatures also look like they will be slightly above average for the most part through the next 10 days or so. Tomorrow we should get close to 80 here in PDX. It's been a very dry May and it looks like June will start off the same especially down here. No significant rain in sight and time is running out for it to happen. This coming week was our best shot IMO to get some decent rain but the trough has been watered down, no pun intended.

[Jesse]

Happy Memorial Day Weekend! Looks like the 12z EURO backed off on the rainfall for this coming week. There wasn't much going to be much anyways, especially down here in the Willamette Valley. Temperatures also look like they will be slightly above average for the most part through the next 10 days or so. Tomorrow we should get close to 80 here in PDX. It's been a very dry May and it looks like June will start off the same especially down here. No significant rain in sight and time is running out for it to happen. This coming week was our best shot IMO to get some decent rain but the trough has been watered down, no pun intended.

I want to live in your alternate universe.

[Jesse]

Tim, I take it you are staying in town this weekend?

[Deweydog]

It's not a competition.

 

Aside from that, at some level you probably agree with me that the last five lengthy hot and dry seasons have been a bit much, whether or not it means "treemageddon".

 

If that is the case, the debate is just over how we are thinking/talking about the issue, which is kind of silly, because that will always be different from person to person.

It's just kind of funny. Obviously some trees have had some heat stress issues at times the last few summers. They've been a little on the warm side, in case you hadn't heard. We planted some maples back in 2013 (I think) and we had to baby them a bit at one point because they all seemed to get a little sickly about a year in. Since that one summer, which I believe was 2014, they've kicked a**. I've pondered as to whether the stretch of warmth has actually made them more resilient. Not an arborist, so not sure...

 

Of course your soapbox is a little hard to ride given your preferences. I highly doubt a run of extreme winters and the impact on growing season/existing vegetation would have you being quite as preachy about the virtues of sticking to climo. There are still reminders of the 2004 ice storm, particularly on I-205 north of Padden.

[Phil]

Happy Memorial Day Weekend! Looks like the 12z EURO backed off on the rainfall for this coming week. There wasn't much going to be much anyways, especially down here in the Willamette Valley. Temperatures also look like they will be slightly above average for the most part through the next 10 days or so. Tomorrow we should get close to 80 here in PDX. It's been a very dry May and it looks like June will start off the same especially down here. No significant rain in sight and time is running out for it to happen. This coming week was our best shot IMO to get some decent rain but the trough has been watered down, no pun intended.

Based on what?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Tim, I take it you are staying in town this weekend?

 

Looks cool and socked in with low clouds down there today. Sunny and 68F up here. Would have been better off with the heavy rains the models were flirting with earlier.

[Jesse]

It's just kind of funny. Obviously some trees have had some heat stress issues at times the last few summers. They've been a little on the warm side, in case you hadn't heard. We planted some maples back in 2013 (I think) and we had to baby them a bit at one point because they all seemed to get a little sickly about a year in. Since that one summer, which I believe was 2014, they've kicked a**. I've pondered as to whether the stretch of warmth has actually made them more resilient. Not an arborist, so not sure...

 

Of course your soapbox is a little hard to ride given your preferences. I highly doubt a run of extreme winters and the impact on growing season/existing vegetation would have you being quite as preachy about the virtues of sticking to climo. There are still reminders of the 2004 ice storm, particularly on I-205 north of Padden.

 

What kind of maples were they?

 

Every significant departure from climo is going to have its impact on vegetation. Especially a sustained departure over a number of years. The main point was that the last five years have had an impact. It was initially being argued that it hadn't at all, and the significance of the last handful of warm seasons was being downplayed in order to polish the other side of the preachy preference coin. As we all know, warm season rain, like foosball, is the Debil!

[Deweydog]

What kind of maples were they?

 

Every significant departure from climo is going to have its impact on vegetation. Especially a sustained departure over a number of years. The main point was that the last five years have had an impact. It was initially being argued that it hadn't at all, and the significance of the last handful of warm seasons was being downplayed in order to polish the other side of the preachy preference coin. As we all know, warm season rain, like foosball, is the Debil!

Bowhall.

[TT-SEA]

Looks cool and socked in with low clouds down there today. Sunny and 68F up here. Would have been better off with the heavy rains the models were flirting with earlier.

 

Actually its been partly sunny most of the day here... now the low clouds seem to have disappeared and replaced by filtered sun through high clouds which is much brighter and more pleasant than dark low clouds.   

 

Tomorrow looks awesome so we stayed in town.   We have been building a faux river bed and moving rock all day today.   Monday we plan to head up to Suncadia and go for a hike and dinner and escape the low clouds and see some new scenery.

 

I moved two of the hotel reservations to next weekend... we will how it plays out.  

[Jesse]

Bowhall.

Sounds non-native.

[Front Ranger]

Actually its been partly sunny most of the day here... now the low clouds seem to have disappeared and replaced by filtered sun through high clouds which is much brighter and more pleasant than dark low clouds.   

 

Tomorrow looks awesome so we stayed in town.   We have been building a faux river bed and moving rock all day today.   Monday we plan to head up to Suncadia and go for a hike and dinner and escape the low clouds and see some new scenery.

 

I moved two of the hotel reservations to next weekend... we will how it plays out.  

 

Instead of a faux river bed, you should build a helipad. Then buy a helicopter and voila - any time you want to escape your micro-climate, just hop in and fly off!

[Deweydog]

Sounds non-native.

RAGE!!!

[TT-SEA]

Definitely not a sunny day... but not socked in either.   Sun has been in and out all day.   Low clouds are around the edges with high clouds and filtered sun.

 

[BLI snowman]

It's a shame this ULL decided to go south and give a bunch of rain to lame places like Redding.

[Jesse]

It's a shame this ULL decided to go south and give a bunch of rain to lame places like Redding.

Yeah. They picked up 0.7” yesterday with an afternoon high of only 57 (midnight high of 66). Pretty crazy.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sto&sid=KRDD&num=72&raw=0

[Deweydog]

Sunriver had a big ol' fuckfest of a rain storm come through yesterday a couple hours before we arrived. Lots of evidence of some rapid runoff and flash floody kind of stuff. Nice to come to the wet side once in a while...

[Jesse]

Sunriver had a big ol' fuckfest of a rain storm come through yesterday a couple hours before we arrived. Lots of evidence of some rapid runoff and flash floody kind of stuff. Nice to come to the wet side once in a while...

Surprised you didn’t cancel your reservations.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Based on what?

Based on what the 12z EURO spit out today and the current forecast here. Today PDX hit 67/50. Average for the date is 69/49, right around average. Tomorrow highs will be in the upper 70s and on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s. I really only see 2 below average days the next 10 days for PDX and their just slightly below average. Average high and low for this time of year at PDX is 69/70-50. I'm also unimpressed with this trough as I said before. Since you said everybody can change their summer forecast by Memorial day I'll do just that. I'll be the first one to admit that I'm probably going to be wrong with predicting an average June for the PNW. I was really expecting this first half of June to be below average but it doesn't look like that will be the case. Still kind of early but I'm really bummed out with this trough and how it might be totally dry, I expected more from it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Spectacular evening tonight as the sun finally broke out! Tomorrow should be gorgeous with sunny skies most of the day after some morning clouds. Upper 70s tomorrow for PDX, maybe make a run at 80.

[Phil]

Sunriver had a big ol' fuckfest of a rain storm come through yesterday a couple hours before we arrived. Lots of evidence of some rapid runoff and flash floody kind of stuff. Nice to come to the wet side once in a while...

[Phil]

Based on what the 12z EURO spit out today and the current forecast here. Today PDX hit 67/50. Average for the date is 69/49, right around average. Tomorrow highs will be in the upper 70s and on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s. I really only see 2 below average days the next 10 days for PDX and their just slightly below average. Average high and low for this time of year at PDX is 69/70-50. I'm also unimpressed with this trough as I said before. Since you said everybody can change their summer forecast by Memorial day I'll do just that. I'll be the first one to admit that I'm probably going to be wrong with predicting an average June for the PNW. I was really expecting this first half of June to be below average but it doesn't look like that will be the case. Still kind of early but I'm really bummed out with this trough and how it might be totally dry, I expected more from it.

The 12z Euro has you below average for 8/10 days. I’m not sure what you’re looking at.

 

The EPS is even cooler, with 9/10 days cooler than average.

 

 

And there definitely is precipitation in the forecast.

 

[Deweydog]

Surprised you didn’t cancel your reservations.

Today was delightful for baseball.

[Phil]

This is an ensemble mean, so take it FWIW, but there will also be boundary layer changes coming after tomorrow.

 

Projected thermal profile over PDX has 850mb temperatures dropping near/below 0C on two occasions with mid-level drying.

 

Yet somehow this is “warmer than average”?

 

 

[Jesse]

Based on what the 12z EURO spit out today and the current forecast here. Today PDX hit 67/50. Average for the date is 69/49, right around average. Tomorrow highs will be in the upper 70s and on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s. I really only see 2 below average days the next 10 days for PDX and their just slightly below average. Average high and low for this time of year at PDX is 69/70-50. I'm also unimpressed with this trough as I said before. Since you said everybody can change their summer forecast by Memorial day I'll do just that. I'll be the first one to admit that I'm probably going to be wrong with predicting an average June for the PNW. I was really expecting this first half of June to be below average but it doesn't look like that will be the case. Still kind of early but I'm really bummed out with this trough and how it might be totally dry, I expected more from it.

Today has looked like dry and mid-upper 60s for several days. What exactly were you expecting and why would you let that dictate an entire monthly forecast?

[Jesse]

Today was delightful for baseball.

Sprummer ball!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. High of 64 with a lot of sun in the afternoon. Just a gorgeous day for my youngests birthday. 

 

Pray for rain.