May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Farmboy]

We are going on about five in a row now...

 

Last time I was up at Lake Quinault in September 2016 I had a conversation with a park ranger. She was telling about how the long warm and dry seasons up there from 2014 onward had been stressing out the bigleaf maple, making their leaves shrivel up, turn brown and drop off at the end of the summer, well before they normally would in autumn.

 

As we all know, last summer didn't do much to buck that warm/dry/long summer trend.

 

 

Sorry, I have to call it.  I've been watching Big Leaf Maples, also known as Oregon Maple do that since I was a kid.  That type of behavior is quite common for those trees in August...  Happens all throughout western Washington...  The 'Oregon Maple' is gets it's name because Oregon is central to it's range.  As you know, Oregon summers are drier than Washington's, so I'm sure it has some stamina when it comes to surviving through dry/warm/hot summers....  I think that park ranger was embellishing just a little....

 

The maple is common in foothills and valleys within southern British Columbia all the way through the Cascades down to the southern Sierra Nevada mountain range.

This versatile tree prefers the moist well-drained soils of riparian habitats but withstands both seasonal flooding and dry upland environments. The tolerant nature of this maple means the tree can reside in deep loamy soils as well as poorer rocky soils.

 

http://www.nwplants.com/business/catalog/ace_mac.html

[Jesse]

Sorry, I have to call it.  I've been watching Big Leaf Maples, also known as Oregon Maple do that since I was a kid.  That type of behavior is quite common for those trees in August...  Happens all throughout western Washington...  The 'Oregon Maple' is gets it's name because Oregon is central to it's range.  As you know, Oregon summers are drier than Washington's, so I'm sure it has some stamina when it comes to surviving through dry/warm/hot summers....

 

The maple is common in foothills and valleys within southern British Columbia all the way through the Cascades down to the southern Sierra Nevada mountain range.

This versatile tree prefers the moist well-drained soils of riparian habitats but withstands both seasonal flooding and dry upland environments. The tolerant nature of this maple means the tree can reside in deep loamy soils as well as poorer rocky soils.

 

http://www.nwplants.com/business/catalog/ace_mac.html

 

I am sure the park ranger had no idea what she was talking about.

[Front Ranger]

Either way... I will always cheer for sun. No matter how I can get it.

Fair enough. But acting like rain/clouds are the default all year long is just not accurate.

 

Seattle and Portland have one of the most distinct wet/dry seasons in the country. Nov-Mar is almost always wet... April, May, and October are often a mix, and June-September is usually pretty dry.

 

Exceptional dryness is possible any time from May through first half of October, as we've seen recently.

[Farmboy]

Plus a lot of these people that works for parks/ forestry departments have ties with environmental lobbying groups and are heavily invested in promoting their global warming agendas...

[Farmboy]

I am sure the park ranger had no idea what she was talking about.

 

 

Good chance she didn't.  What, just because she had a suit and a badge, that somehow makes her infallible?

[Deweydog]

It's a moderately sized agricultural town in Central Oregon. Sort of what Bend used to be before it got painted up with doggie day spas and frogurt shops.

Sorry... Didn't realize you guys were dating.

 

...

[BLI snowman]

Madras is kind of a shithole.

 

Eclipse!!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Eclipse!!!!!

 

Was better viewed in Monmouth   For being the sad bullseye as far as PNW snow was concerned this past winter, on the flip side, we were extremely lucky in terms of viewing the eclipse as the smoke didn't creep in from the east that day until about noon, 2 hrs after.

[Jesse]

Sorry... Didn't realize you guys were dating.

 

...

Had a splendid time camping near there during the eclipse. She even put out.

 

 

 

 

 

...

[Deweydog]

Had a splendid time camping near there during the eclipse. She even put out.

 

 

 

 

 

...

Gross.

[BLI snowman]

Was better viewed in Monmouth   For being the sad bullseye as far as PNW snow was concerned this past winter, on the flip side, we were extremely lucky in terms of viewing the eclipse as the smoke didn't creep in from the east that day until about noon, 2 hrs after.

 

It got dusky here for a bit.

 

But at least it snowed a few months later.

[Phil]

Horribly ugly Euro. Can we have our summer back, please...?

 

Just looked at the EPS, what a train wreck, temperature-wise....

No... had a week of low clouds then 3 days of sun and now looking at 8 or 9 days that are mostly cloudy overall. That is not good summer weather in my book.

 

A score of what... 14 to 4 cloudy over sunny after next week? Too much cloudiness.

Smh..y’all just had one of the ridgiest Mays ever recorded after 5+ years of the most anomalous ridging of anywhere on the planet, and that still isn’t enough?? Now we’re kicking and screaming over 2-3 weeks of moderate troughing? Lolololol.

 

I’m legitimately worried for your sanity when the next stretch of legitimate cool/troughy summers comes along. It’s bound to happen at some point, probably sooner rather than later.

 

Consider this a practice year. Not overly troughy, but not perpetually ridgy either. Just enough variance to dip your toes in the water, so to speak.

[Phil]

Only good thing about the 12Z ECMWF is that maybe the deck is cleared at the end of the run and there is nothing much left upstream.

 

Retrograding anticyclones there with an offshore wave station. Nothing outlandish, typical -PNA/niña forcing response.

 

There will probably be a transient ridge in there towards D11-13, between retrogressions. But the regime itself will continue until forcing passes the dateline. Then you’ll get your beloved death ridge back.

[TT-SEA]

Smh..y’all just had one of the ridgiest Mays ever recorded after 5+ years of the most anomalous ridging of anywhere the planet, and that still isn’t enough?? Now we’re kicking and screaming over 2-3 weeks of moderate troughing? Lolololol.

 

I’m legitimately worried for your sanity when the next stretch of legitimate cool/troughy summers comes along. It’s bound to happen at some point, probably sooner rather than later.

 

Consider this a practice year. Not overly troughy, but not perpetually ridgy either. Just enough variance to dip your toes in the water, so to speak.

Trolling away Phil.

 

You try to hard.

[Phil]

Trolling away Phil.

 

You try to hard.

*Too*.

 

And most of what I just said is factual. You’ve been experiencing an unprecedented stretch of warm season heat/ridging since 2013. It literally can’t get any warmer than that in your region under late-Holocene boundary conditions.

[Kayla]

12z EPS 850mb spaghetti plot looks way cooler for Portland compared to the 12z run from yesterday. Mean is now below normal from the 29th through the 4th. Still really dry though with the mean showing less than a 0.25" of precip over the next 15 days.

[TT-SEA]

*Too*.

 

And most of what I just said is factual. You’ve been experiencing an unprecedented stretch of warm season heat/ridging since 2013. It literally can’t get any warmer than that in your region under late-Holocene boundary conditions.

 

On my phone.  Sorry about that.

 

2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 were all great summers in our time here.

 

2008 was decent after the middle of June.

 

2011 was beautiful from the middle of July onward.

[High Desert Mat!]

No... had a week of low clouds then 3 days of sun and now looking at 8 or 9 days that are mostly cloudy overall. That is not good summer weather in my book.

 

A score of what... 14 to 4 cloudy over sunny after next week? Too much cloudiness.

It wouldn't matter how great the weather is, you'll just stare at some sort of screen anyways saying how great it is while you're indoors. We all know how your vacations go.

[Guest Dome Buster]

It wouldn't matter how great the weather is, you'll just stare at some sort of screen anyways saying how great it is while you're indoors. We all know how your vacations go.

Yep. All Tim does is F around on his mobile device until either his mistreated wife calls him out on it or his device tells him it needs to cool down before further use. Sad really.

[Phil]

On my phone. Sorry about that.

 

2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 were all great summers in our time here.

 

2008 was decent after the middle of June.

 

2011 was beautiful from the middle of July onward.

Exactly, you know very well that you have the nicest summers in the country, yet it’s still not good enough for you, which annoys the fook out of me.

 

That’s the only reason I troll you. If you’d count your blessings and be content with the weather you have instead of complaining every time you see a cloud, you’d probably get along with everyone here.

[Deweydog]

*Too*.

 

And most of what I just said is factual. You’ve been experiencing an unprecedented stretch of warm season heat/ridging since 2013. It literally can’t get any warmer than that in your region under late-Holocene boundary conditions.

I remember a summer day a couple years ago where the marine layer held on a little longer than expected. My wife at one point said "wasn't it supposed to be sunnier and warmer today." I said "that's the late-Holocene boundary condition, you dumb blonde! Now go make me a chicken pot pie!"

[TT-SEA]

 

Blah...blah... blah....

[Front Ranger]

Wow, all these mistreated significant others, and at least one is still putting out. I learned a lot today.

[Phil]

I have conflicted feelings about this trend.

 

The Tim trough is good news, but the heat moving east is terrible news. Hopefully this pattern returns during my trip to the region this summer.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1000114711818588160

[Jesse]

Good chance she didn't. What, just because she had a suit and a badge, that somehow makes her infallible?

I’m sure this article is completely made up as well. One hot and dry summer after another is actually great for trees. Especially in temperate rainforests that depend on relatively short dry seasons to maintain their lush characteristics.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/from-mountain-forests-to-city-parks-trees-are-stressed-and-dying/

[Phil]

Lol. We desperately need a hydrostatic-convective framework for the GFS. This is pathetic.

 

[Deweydog]

LOL GFS!

[Jesse]

There is usually a lag effect with tree mortality too. They will look normal over the winter, then the reddish color of dying needles will make its presence known later in the spring, when healthy conifers are putting on new growth.

 

Lately there has been an uptick in dying firs and cedars both around town and up in the mountains. We noticed a pretty bad patch of dying doug firs around Rhododendron on the way to Mt. Hood just the other day. This new die off is likely a result of last summer’s prolonged hot and dry conditions.

[Front Ranger]

Cool anomalies soothe the trees.

[Jesse]

Cool anomalies soothe the trees.

Precipitation probably matters more than temperature. Although prolonged hot and dry is the deadliest combination by far.

[MossMan]

Good...Lord...

[High Desert Mat!]

I remember a summer day a couple years ago where the marine layer held on a little longer than expected. My wife at one point said "wasn't it supposed to be sunnier and warmer today." I said "that's the late-Holocene boundary condition, you dumb blonde! Now go make me a chicken pot pie!"

Post of the day!!!!

[Phil]

The models’ skill scores are tanking now (as usual, the GooFuS is the worst). Models don’t like pattern changes.

 

[Phil]

Biggest drop in model skill scores since the SSW. Ouch.

[Farmboy]

I’m sure this article is completely made up as well. One hot and dry summer after another is actually great for trees. Especially in temperate rainforests that depend on relatively short dry seasons to maintain their lush characteristics.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/from-mountain-forests-to-city-parks-trees-are-stressed-and-dying/

 

As I scanned through the article, I had to roll my eyes as I got to the part about 'climate change'.  The global warming crowd so giddily seizes every opportunity they see to scream 'global warming'  -it's so predictable, TWC does it all the time..

 

Our regional climate here may have warmed over the last 100 years, the evidence is pretty clear that it has, but these things are cyclical.  I wouldn't get too worked up about what the Seattle Times calls "Treemageddon".  We'll eventually cool off once again.   In the mean time you should try to avoid getting swept up in the alarmist garbage being pushed by these drama queens...

[TT-SEA]

As I scanned through the article, I had to roll my eyes as I got to the part about 'climate change'.  The global warming crowd so giddily seizes every opportunity they see to scream 'global warming'  -it's so predictable, TWC does it all the time..

 

Our regional climate here may have warmed over the last 100 years, the evidence is pretty clear that it has, but these things are cyclical.  I wouldn't get too worked up about what the Seattle Times calls "Treemageddon".  We'll eventually cool off once again.   In the mean time you should try to avoid getting swept up in the alarmist garbage being pushed by these drama queens...

 

Great post.

[Jesse]

This place sometimes.

[Jesse]

Cooling off and clearing out nicely tonight. 61 with a DP of 40. NW winds have picked up as well.

[Deweydog]

This place sometimes.

We've got you surrounded!

[Jesse]

As I scanned through the article, I had to roll my eyes as I got to the part about 'climate change'. The global warming crowd so giddily seizes every opportunity they see to scream 'global warming' -it's so predictable, TWC does it all the time..

 

Our regional climate here may have warmed over the last 100 years, the evidence is pretty clear that it has, but these things are cyclical. I wouldn't get too worked up about what the Seattle Times calls "Treemageddon". We'll eventually cool off once again. In the mean time you should try to avoid getting swept up in the alarmist garbage being pushed by these drama queens...

I actually agree with a lot of this. Ie the misrepresentation of science by the media being annoying and fairly predictable.

 

The original point was that the last five very hot and dry summers have had an affect on the vegetation around here, which you were at first disputing, but is actually true. Now it seems like you are changing the subject and turning this whole thing into a climate change is fake soapbox, which is cool I guess. But sort of going off on a tangent.