May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

We've got you surrounded!

You don’t give out post likes very often. Surprises me that you would allow yourself to be deflowered by a poor man’s Philrant.

[Deweydog]

You don’t give out post likes very often. Surprises me that you would allow yourself to be deflowered by a poor man’s Philrant.

The like heard 'round the world!

[Jesse]

The like heard 'round the world!

Across. The world is flat. Don’t be a sheeple.

 

#woke

 

#anotherleftisthoax

[Deweydog]

Across. The world is flat. Don’t be a sheeple.

 

#woke

 

#anotherleftisthoax

Haha! Politics...

[Jesse]

Haha! Politics...

They make the world revolve.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

They make the world devolve.

 

Fixed

[Jesse]

Fixed

Also true.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The models’ skill scores are tanking now (as usual, the GooFuS is the worst). Models don’t like pattern changes.

 

Doesn't surprise me. The GFS has these "drop-offs" regularly. The EURO AND UKMET are consistently the top 2 models in the world and it's really not even close.

[Jesse]

Doesn't surprise me. The GFS has these "drop-offs" regularly. The EURO AND UKMET are consistently the top 2 models in the world and it's really not even close.

The GFS lead the way on the upcoming heat event this weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Nice improvement on the 00Z GFS beginning next Friday. Maybe we can confine the troughing to 3 or 4 days. Be nice if the trough delivered l-2 inches of rain across the region during the week and be gone.

 

But it seems destined to be almost totally dry.

[Phil]

The GFS has completely lost its marbles.

 

Somehow it completely loses the wavetrain over a span of just 36hrs (between D6 & D7). Nothing left but wandering ULLs in a feedback loop of height rises.

 

#NotGunnaHappen

 

 

[Phil]

The mythical D15 super-trough returns. If only...

 

[El Nina]

It's been really good to see the persistent rains over Southern and Eastern Oregon lately.

[High Desert Mat!]

It's been really good to see the persistent rains over Southern and Eastern Oregon lately.

If only it were over a span of a few days or weeks. They have broken records with the amounts of precip. I just barely missed out here in Redmond. Bend got a little with the urban flooding but we mostly misssd out. A lot of the rain east of here was runoff which didn't help the drought situations. Just sprinkles here during the day while Bend and points south and east got hammered.

 

Better luck next time I suppose.

[ShawniganLake]

Brett Anderson is not looking at the same things Phil is!

 

“Latest signs point toward a large-scale trough setting up across eastern Canada starting around June 5. Usually when that happens, we end up seeing a ridge building across the West.

What this means is warmer and drier air dominating across the West, while several cool fronts come into the East/Atlantic Canada with opportunities for some rain or thunderstorms, at least through mid-June.”

[Phil]

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles definitely doun’t agree with the operational.

 

[Phil]

There’s something to be said about the meteorological community’s obsession with computer models and the

abandonment of analog-based methods.

 

The models failed to see this pattern change, and their skill scores are tanking. But the analog-based methods were spot on.

[GHweatherChris]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/05/seattle-will-tie-record-fo

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

I guess we’ll see. Tough to call bust on something that hasn’t happened yet.

The pattern change starts in two days. I think it’s safe to say the weeklies missed it.

 

And it won’t be 3+ weeks of unrelenting troughing, either. There will be intermittent breaks, as is typically the case under retrograding anticyclonic regimes.

[MossMan]

Cloudy. Chilly.

[Farmboy]

I actually agree with a lot of this. Ie the misrepresentation of science by the media being annoying and fairly predictable.

 

The original point was that the last five very hot and dry summers have had an affect on the vegetation around here, which you were at first disputing, but is actually true. Now it seems like you are changing the subject and turning this whole thing into a climate change is fake soapbox, which is cool I guess. But sort of going off on a tangent.

 

 

Even if the last five summers have had an effect on vegetation, so what?  Are we on the verge of seeing the imminent demise of the Western Red Cedar?  The Oregon Big-Leaf Maple?  The Coastal Douglas Fir?  Or is it something far worse that has you losing sleep at night..? Just wondering... 

[Jesse]

Even if the last five summers have had an effect on vegetation, so what? Are we on the verge of seeing the imminent demise of the Western Red Cedar? The Oregon Big-Leaf Maple? The Coastal Douglas Fir? Or is it something far worse that has you losing sleep at night..? Just wondering...

So now the topic has switched from it isn’t happening to it doesn’t matter?

[Kayla]

That is one heck of a trough in the fantasyland of the 12z GFS. 

[Jesse]

Looks like this overall troughy pattern could have some staying power.

[Phil]

Even if the last five summers have had an effect on vegetation, so what? Are we on the verge of seeing the imminent demise of the Western Red Cedar? The Oregon Big-Leaf Maple? The Coastal Douglas Fir? Or is it something far worse that has you losing sleep at night..? Just wondering...

I wouldn’t deny the role of recent climate changes in contributing to the degrading the immune health of certain tree species (though I agree it’s much more complicated than many realize). A tree’s ability to compartmentalize a fungal or bacterial infection requires the tree’s array of biological functions to be operating properly, and each species’ requirements are different. If the available moisture/sensible heat balance is thrown off enough, then how exactly the tree responds to conserve energy and retain moisture will determine whether it may succumb to local pathogens or retain certain defenses.

 

However, I would argue that, based on the available research and literature, it was in fact the LIA that induced the most widespread vegetation changes across the US (it was the largest shake-up of the North American flora and fauna since the 8200kr cooling event), and that many of the changes we’re seeing now are a consequence of the termination of the LIA, and a return to conditions resembling those of the MWP and/or the last several thousand years in general.

 

And human-introduction of foreign insects and fungal pathogens has been extremely detrimental to ecosystems nationwide. More-so than the climate change.

[Farmboy]

So now the topic has switched from it isn’t happening to it doesn’t matter?

 

 

I don't think it does matter because nothing is happening-   What do you think is happening?

 

All I see is a few warm summers and some dried out fir needles on some of the trees.  To the Seattle Times, it's tree-mageddon, collapse of civilizations, and the fourth turning...

[Phil]

The 12z GFS has -2C 850mb temps around SEA by the end of the run.

 

Is that even possible in the middle of June?

[Kayla]

The 12z GFS has -2C 850mb temps around SEA by the end of the run.

 

Is that even possible in the middle of June?

 

June 2001 came pretty close to that I think. That was a very chilly month region wide.

 

Bozeman picked up almost 17" of snow that month with 14.3" falling on the 13th. Pretty incredible.

[Jesse]

I don't think it does matter because nothing is happening- What do you think is happening?

 

All I see is a few warm summers and some dried out fir needles on some of the trees. To the Seattle Times, it's tree-mageddon, collapse of civilizations, and the fourth turning...

Sounds like your beef is with the Seattle Times then.

[Phil]

June 2001 came pretty close to that I think. That was a very chilly month region wide.

 

Bozeman picked up almost 17" of snow that month with 14.3" falling on the 13th. Pretty incredible.

I wish I could see snow in June.

 

Interesting that it’s 2001 again. It worked great as a winter/spring analog, and it also happens to be one of the best QBO matches to 2018. I’ve been giving it less weight recently due to solar/atlantic differences, but maybe the Pacific Warm Pool and QBO are still running the show.

[Jesse]

The 12z GFS has -2C 850mb temps around SEA by the end of the run.

 

Is that even possible in the middle of June?

I don’t know exactly what our historic limit for sub-0c 850s is. I would guess early July? Although some of the crazy cold summers in the 1950s/60s may have exceeded that.

[Jesse]

I wish I could see snow in June.

 

Interesting that it’s 2001 again. It worked great as a winter/spring analog, and it also happens to be one of the best QBO matches to 2018. I’ve been giving it less weight recently due to solar/atlantic differences, but maybe the Pacific Warm Pool and QBO are still running the show.

New England saw widespread June snowfall in 1816, during the infamous “Summer without a Summer”. This was caused in part by the massive eruption of Tambora the previous year, as well as an ongoing LIA background state. Probably some 42 degree rain in your neck of the woods.

[Phil]

Kayla is a genius..2001 comes up 4 times on the CPC analog list for the 12z GFS:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

 

Love that Hudson/Baffin Bay ridge signal. Really helps squash the 4-corners high when it’s persistent.

[Farmboy]

Sounds like your beef is with the Seattle Times then.

 

You're avoiding the question.  But, whatever....  

[Phil]

New England saw widespread June snowfall in 1816, during the infamous “Summer without a Summer”. This was caused in part by the massive eruption of Tambora the previous year, as well as an ongoing LIA background state. Probably some 42 degree rain in your neck of the woods.

Oh, what I wouldn’t give to time travel back to the coldest depths of the LIA. Just for a year or two, to see what it was like.

[Jesse]

You're avoiding the question.

I am avoiding continuing what has become an increasingly dumbed down discussion.

 

It’s clear you don’t think the tree die off is a big deal (now that I have gotten you to admit that one is even happening ). I think that is a little short sighted, but I also don’t think I am going to be able convince you otherwise.

[Jesse]

Oh, what I wouldn’t give to time travel back to the coldest depths of the LIA. Just for a year or two, to see what it was like.

We’ll find out by the early 2020s right?

[Phil]

We’ll find out by the early 2020s right?

Haha. Well, you guys might. Or at the very least, you’ll probably get a throwback to the 2008-12 period.

 

I’m not sure about us. The coldest periods of the LIA did have chilly/wet summers here, but our winters were actually very similar to today because the low frequency boreal winter circulation was much less conductive for cold here.

 

The closest example of the LIA cold season circulation is the winter of 1968/69. It just doesn’t direct much cold air this way, despite having niño-ish tendencies in terms of the tropical forcing.