June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Nice warm and breezy morning ahead of the weekend blast of rainy cold fun! This is actually one of my favorite weather conditions, love the pre frontal warm dry wind. Though I would prefer this in November!

 

Or on a Monday morning just after a beautiful summer weekend on the water.  

[MossMan]

Or on a Monday morning just after a beautiful summer weekend on the water.

Very true!

[Front Ranger]

Most of the West has been warm and basically unaffected by troughing this month. Fortunately, that looks to change over the coming 3-4 days. But still looks like a big area that could really use rain won't get much if any.

 

 

[Blizzard777]

Kelly’s marina web cam Nehalum bay Or.

Wet is on its way

[Geos]

Nice soaker on the way. Should be lush for awhile after this rain.

Met's talking about snow levels dropping to or below 4000 feet on Sunday.

 

[TT-SEA]

Nice soaker on the way. Should be lush for awhile after this rain.

Met's talking about snow levels dropping to or below 4000 feet on Sunday.

 

 

 

Does not really work that way here.   

 

Once grass starts going dormant it usually does not come back until the fall rains arrive.    Maybe if we had a couple weeks of rainy weather now then you might see a difference.   But this band coming through this afternoon and evening and the scattered showers and c-zone the next couple days probably won't be enough to make everything lush again where summer dormancy has already started.

[The Swamp]

Coming from you, this is a huge compliment. You are by far the dumbest sack of dogshit I’ve ever encountered, either online or in person. And I mean that wholeheartedly.

Go smoke some more weed and tell us about the Hadley Cells. You are becoming the new Richard of this web page.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is a summery dream after we get through the system later next week.

 

12Z GEM was much weaker with that second system... more like the 00Z ECMWF.

[Phil]

Go smoke some more weed and tell us about the Hadley Cells. You are becoming the new Richard of this web page.

Go stick a samurai sword up your anus.

[Geos]

Does not really work that way here.   

 

Once grass starts going dormant it usually does not come back until the fall rains arrive.    Maybe if we had a couple weeks of rainy weather now then you might see a difference.   But this band coming through this afternoon and evening and the scattered showers and c-zone the next couple days probably won't be enough to make everything lush again where summer dormancy has already started.

 

Well I don't care too much about the grass really, just some rain to get the garden going. 

...

Actually my front yard is fairly dormant but the backyard is almost entirely green. So might be able to hang onto a green backyard longer.

[BLI snowman]

This weekend might as well be one long Monday now. LOL!

[Phil]

12Z GFS is a summery dream after we get through the system later next week.

 

12Z GEM was much weaker with that second system... more like the 00Z ECMWF.

Ridging returns after D8 verbatim, but the question now is whether models are handling the CCKW bifurcation correctly.

 

I’m sure in reality it will be a more jumbled pattern than the majority of models indicate. Still warmer than normal, but probably not constantly so.

[El Nina]

Eugene radar is down.

[Geos]

Rain has arrived in Bothell. 

Kinda breezy out too.

[Deweydog]

Eugene radar is down.

Salem too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rain almost here according to the Weather Mate app (I recommend it now that Storm has been de-balled by TWC)

[TT-SEA]

Eugene radar is down.

 

When did Eugene get a radar?

 

Hint... they didn't.

[TT-SEA]

We basically had the same pattern in the PNW one year ago today.    And it was raining in Seattle that day.   

 

Starting one year ago today... the next 9 out of 10 days would be in the 60s at SEA... and there was 1.47 inches of rain at SEA in that period. 

 

Here is the current pattern:

 

 

 

And the pattern one year ago today:

 

 

 

 

Here is how Seattle looked on 6/8/17:

 

 

 

Looks almost exactly the same right now. 

 

Side note... summer did arrive eventually last year.  

[TT-SEA]

Another side note... I am reading through the June 2017 thread now and I was giving Phil major props one year ago for predicting the arrival of that troughy pattern almost exactly as well.    

 

I remember Phil saying the crash was coming after the first week of June during the middle and end of May.

 

A huge trough and rain are set to move in right after midnight tonight... just as the first week of June officially comes to an end.    

 

Have to give him props... he could not have done better with the timing.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Jared posted this map one year ago today... look familiar?     A notable dry spell followed by a deep trough and wet spell starting on June 8th.   

 

[Farmboy]

Wow, ugly out there now.  Well, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, I guess...

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0IG4pLK3_w

[Farmboy]

I was wondering if anyone could explain the reason for the persistance of the cut-off low over California/Nevada/Utah...?

[Phil]

We basically had the same pattern in the PNW one year ago today. And it was raining in Seattle that day.

 

Starting one year ago today... the next 9 out of 10 days would be in the 60s at SEA... and there was 1.47 inches of rain at SEA in that period.

 

Here is the current pattern:

 

 

 

And the pattern one year ago today:

 

 

 

 

Here is how Seattle looked on 6/8/17:

 

 

 

Looks almost exactly the same right now.

 

Side note... summer did arrive eventually last year.

That looks like a very different pattern to me. The illusion of similarity arises because one image depicts the anomaly @ 500mb, while the other depicts the raw mean.

[TT-SEA]

That looks like a very different pattern to me. The illusion of similarity arises because one image depicts the anomaly @ 500mb, while the other depicts the raw mean.

 

I realize that every pattern looks completely different to you and you see details that other people miss.

 

But it was a very similar pattern in the PNW with similar weather here one year ago.   

 

And in general the pattern was similar... deep trough off the West Coast and ridge in the middle of the country and trough over eastern Canada. 

[Phil]

Yes. Just to clarify, the NE-Pacific/PNW area looks very similar, but it’s a very different pattern everywhere else, and the mechanics/forcings are different as well.

 

Opposite across the Arctic, the NATL/Eastern North America, and Eurasia.

[Phil]

The IO has flipped modes since 2016. It’s early, but this is quite a reversal from the trend there since the 1960s.

 

For the previous several decades, especially since the middle 1990s, the IO was the global hotspot of SSTs/OHC which teleconnected to the NE-ward expansion of the WPAC warm pool, +AMO, and the general poleward shift of the mid-latitude jets/z-cells.

 

Now it’s completely reversed, with the cold IO, retracting WPAC warm pool, and -AMO.

 

Note the long term trend, and the recent reversal. If the cooling continues, it will be a big deal.

 

 

Closer look at the last 4 years:

 

[MossMan]

Rain! Started just as I was getting in my truck to head home from work and start the weekend.. Tim needs to take the weather controls back away from Jesse.

[TT-SEA]

Nice warm signal showing up after about day 8 on the 12Z EPS.

 

Here is the day 10-15 mean:

 

[TT-SEA]

Rain! Started just as I was getting in my truck to head home from work and start the weekend.. Tim needs to take the weather controls back away from Jesse.

 

I am going to try to make things right for next weekend... being Father's Day of course. 

[TT-SEA]

The IO has flipped modes since 2016. It’s early, but this is quite a reversal from the trend there since the 1960s.

 

For the previous several decades, especially since the middle 1990s, the IO was the global hotspot of SSTs/OHC which teleconnected to the NE-ward expansion of the WPAC warm pool, +AMO, and the general poleward shift of the mid-latitude jets/z-cells.

 

Now it’s completely reversed, with the cold IO, retracting WPAC warm pool, and -AMO.

 

Note the long term trend, and the recent reversal. If the cooling continues, it will be a big deal.

 

 

Closer look at the last 4 years:

 

2010-2012 and 2014-2016 look about the same (warm) on that graph. But the weather was completely opposite here in those periods.

[BLI snowman]

Anyone else petrified that this rain could spell an ugly summer? What if it also rains on the 4th of July? And during my hiking trips? Could it be cloudy all August too!?

[Deweydog]

It's coming!!!!!

[Phil]

FWIW, the IO was also in a very warm state back during the 1930s and 1940s, and then it flipped cold in the early 1950s. However, the communicatory conduits and global teleconnections in general were structured quite differently back then, so we’ll have to see how this event unfolds.

 

I’ll post some literature here later today, but at least for the time being, this has all of the hallmarks of a more classical late Holocene IO/NATL cold event (or the early stages of one). The striking commonality is that the last four such episodes have each followed a period of anomalous global warmth, and unlike events occurring during antecedent cold climate conditions, these circulatory aberrations following warm climate episodes have historically produced both a strengthening and an equatorward shift in the westerlies and polar front across the WHEM and a cooling of the SSTs across the Indo-Pacific relative to the SATL/NPAC and the Southern Ocean.

 

No other such climate regime features these unique characteristics. The giveaway is the near universal weakening of the Asian monsoonal cycle in all of these cases, which suggests a strengthening and southward migration of the NE-Canadian cold vortex would have occurred (ie: a displaced +NAO rather than a -NAO) which would have enhanced anticyclonic wavebreaking across the NATL and boosted trades between from 120W to 60E, and enhanced westerlies from 60E to the dateline, which explains the reduced Indonesian throughflow and continued weakening of the Asian monsoons..a self sustaining feedback loop.

[Front Ranger]

We basically had the same pattern in the PNW one year ago today.    And it was raining in Seattle that day.   

 

Starting one year ago today... the next 9 out of 10 days would be in the 60s at SEA... and there was 1.47 inches of rain at SEA in that period. 

 

Here is the current pattern:

 

 

 

And the pattern one year ago today:

 

 

 

 

Here is how Seattle looked on 6/8/17:

 

 

 

Looks almost exactly the same right now. 

 

Side note... summer did arrive eventually last year.  

 

 

SEA ended that month +2. Even OLM was +1.3. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

FWIW, the IO was also in a very warm state back during the 1930s and 1940s, and then it flipped cold in the early 1950s. However, the communicatory conduits and global teleconnections in general were structured quite differently back then, so we’ll have to see how this event unfolds.

 

I’ll post some literature here later today, but at least for the time being, this has all of the hallmarks of a more classical late Holocene IO/NATL cold event (or the early stages of one). The striking commonality is that the last four such episodes have each followed a period of anomalous global warmth, and unlike events occurring during antecedent cold climate conditions, these circulatory aberrations following warm climate episodes have historically produced both a strengthening and an equatorward shift in the westerlies and polar front across the WHEM and a cooling of the SSTs across the Indo-Pacific relative to the SATL/NPAC and the Southern Ocean.

 

No other such climate regime features these unique characteristics. The giveaway is the near universal weakening of the Asian monsoonal cycle in all of these cases, which suggests a strengthening and southward migration of the NE-Canadian cold vortex would have occurred (ie: a displaced +NAO rather than a -NAO) which would have enhanced anticyclonic wavebreaking across the NATL and boosted trades between from 120W to 60E, and enhanced westerlies from 60E to the dateline, which explains the reduced Indonesian throughflow and continued weakening of the Asian monsoons..a self sustaining feedback loop.

 

As long as that translates to arctic and low elevation snow events here most of us would be pretty happy.

[Phil]

Now, it’s way too early to claim this is the direction we’re headed simply based on 2 years of IO cooling and a homogenous global circulation. That would be a laughably myopic analysis.

 

However, we should watch closely for any further evolution into this type of system state, because the implications for the Indo-Asian economies are enormous, and there would be large changes to the PNW climatology as well, starting as warm/dry and quickly trending to cold/arid with time, similar to what happened in the 1400s.

 

So, just keep an eye on those IO SSTAs and the Canadian-North Atlantic Vortex as leading indicators.

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Oci1CuCht7E

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4NwP3wes4M8

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's too bad this weekend is wet. We need the rain and we haven't had any real precipitation in weeks but for it to come just in time for the weekend and the Rose Festival Parade sucks. However it looks like mother nature will pay us back next weekend and then some. Looks like a possible heat wave is coming per the 12z EURO. Get your outdoor plans ready for next weekend!