December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Might be waiting awhile. Hard to imagine next summer being anything but another scorcher between +ENSO events.

 

I think the square mile deep blue dot in the sea of dark brown is Tim’s house.

 

Phil is far too desperate to troll me.   Its a weakness of his.    Same with you.  

 

And maybe he should post that map for the 2014-17 period.    

[Gradient Keeper]

A boatload of arctic air on this side of the continent on the 00Z Fv3 around hour 300...we just need something to bring it down! 

Yep!

[TT-SEA]

I can’t wait for the next wet summer in the PNW. Gonna be all Timper tantrum-combusta in here.

 

FWIW, here’s 2018 to date:

 

 

 

 

Actually been normal to a little wetter than normal for a good chunk of western WA this year.   

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just seems like you set your expectations higher than your location dictates 

 

Nah, It's just nice to even see the chance of something interesting happen.  Central and South valley will often at least see flakes in the air in any given year even if it never sticks so I don't feel that I'm setting my expectations that high.

[TT-SEA]

The only people i know who complain of a lack of sun in the winter around here are from California or florida...

 

Appreciating the sunny days is not complaining.   Its being appreciative.   

[Deweydog]

How 'bout those models???

[TT-SEA]

How 'bout those models???

 

Truly stupid discussion tonight. 

[Requiem]

In the meanwhile I'm very excited for Tuesday's storm. A decent frontal band, some 40-50 gusts, and the NWS has stated that they tend to trust the NAM more on low level wind features during wet storms like this. Do remember the NAM was the ONLY model to show gusts above 40 on Friday for PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just seems like you set your expectations higher than your location dictates 

 

If anything I feel like he represents his climate as far worse than it actually is. 

[Phil]

Absolutely horrible.

Funny how there are places in the Mid-Atlantic that have had well over 100” of rain this year. Yet I haven’t seen anyone complaining about it on the eastern forums.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In the meanwhile I'm very excited for Tuesday's storm. A decent frontal band, some 40-50 gusts, and the NWS has stated that they tend to trust the NAM more on low level wind features during wet storms like this. Do remember the NAM was the ONLY model to show gusts above 40 on Friday for PDX.

 

I wish I was so easily entertained. 

[Phil]

Actually been normal to a little wetter than normal for a good chunk of western WA this year.

 

The PRISM data is much higher quality than the NRCC data. Not even close, really.

[Jesse]

Pretty seasonable overall.

 

[Requiem]

Funny how there are places in the Mid-Atlantic that have had well over 100” of rain this year. Yet I haven’t seen anyone complaining about it on the eastern forums.

 

I mean, I'd rather have more rain than less. If a resident of Ellicott City complains, then by all means they have the right. But I don't remember any significant floods in NYC or Boston this year (at least not ones caused by rain). Plus the PACNW is known for rain, not lack of rain. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The PRISM data is much higher quality than the NRCC data. Not even close, really.

 

I love the PRISM data. According to it, the wettest month at my location was November 2006.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty seasonable overall.

 

D67FF0D1-CCCF-40A9-9D79-54CB4D2B4920.png

 

 

Running through the loop... the 00Z GFS looked very seasonable.  

[Requiem]

I wish I was so easily entertained. 

 

Is it that lame of a storm?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty seasonable overall.

 

D67FF0D1-CCCF-40A9-9D79-54CB4D2B4920.png

 

Maybe we shed the 1991-92 comparisons for 2002-03?!

[Phil]

Phil is far too desperate to troll me. Its a weakness of his. Same with you.

We all have our weaknesses.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is it that lame of a storm?

 

Nah, I wouldn't call it lame. 

[Jesse]

I wish I was so easily entertained.

You’ve said that snow falling at your own house doesn’t even do it for you anymore! More fun go over the old stats and records after the fact.

[Requiem]

Nah, I wouldn't call it lame. 

 

Honestly, I know it doesn't have snow or winter precip, but it's a compact, wet, and pretty windy storm. More significant than anything we've had thus far here in the valley.

[TT-SEA]

The PRISM data is much higher quality than the NRCC data. Not even close, really.

 

Don't care... the active WRCC stations in my area and to the north are all at or above normal for the year.   

 

Cedar Lake

Tolt Reservoir

Monroe

Startup

 

I know for a fact that its been almost perfectly normal in my area this fall and for 2018.  

 

Everywhere south of Rattlesnake Ridge and the Issaquah Alps has been drier than normal.

 

Geography explains it all.    NW flow has been dominant this year and SW flow has been less common than usual.    My house is the blue dot... in an area that cradles NW flow.   All the stations in the blue area have been close to normal for 2018.    Actually goes north of there as well.  

 

[Phil]

I mean, I'd rather have more rain than less. If a resident of Ellicott City complains, then by all means they have the right. But I don't remember any significant floods in NYC or Boston this year (at least not ones caused by rain). Plus the PACNW is known for rain, not lack of rain.

Exactly. And Now Tim is gonna reference Ellicott City every time this topic comes up.

 

“See what happens when it rains?! People die!” -Tim

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wettest day of the month is still Dec 1 here with .67"

 

Going to assume that will be topped in the coming days.

[Requiem]

Exactly. And Now Tim is gonna reference Ellicott City every time this topic comes up.

 

“See what happens when it rains?! People die!”

 

Ugh, shouldn't have done that.....

 

Can a ninja edit improve things now?

[Jesse]

Ugh, shouldn't have done that.....

 

Can a ninja edit improve things now?

Sadly the damage has been done.

[Requiem]

Sadly the damage has been done.

 

[TT-SEA]

Exactly. And Now Tim is gonna reference Ellicott City every time this topic comes up.

 

“See what happens when it rains?! People die!” -Tim

 

Dude... you are obsessed with me.     

 

And you build up all this hostility based on incorrect and greatly exaggerated assumptions.    You need to relax.   

 

We have a million dollars in equity in our house... maybe more.   We can leave if we want.   We love it here.  

[Bryant]

Truly stupid discussion tonight. 

 

Funny how that discussion revolved around you, once again. Imagine that.

[TT-SEA]

Funny how that discussion revolved around you, once again. Imagine that.

 

Its just so stupid.    

 

Read back the entire discussion.   I did not bring this up.

 

Several people who are REALLY obsessed with me.     

[Gradient Keeper]

D**n a lot of stupid drama on here like a bunch of teenage girls. Arguing or bickering over absolutely nothing.

 

00z EPS in 1 hour 50 minutes(Pivotal site)

[GHweatherChris]

Actually been normal to a little wetter than normal for a good chunk of western WA this year.

 

Looks like a much larger part of western WA has been drier than normal this year than wetter, #stupidbackyards....

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a much larger part of western WA has been drier than normal this year than wetter, #stupidbackyards....

 

Indeed... but a nice chunk of western WA has not been drier than normal this year.   And geography explains it all.    The green area is favored for rain with NW flow... and that has been more dominate than usual this year.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF much closer to delivering. Still a long ways to go, but progress is progress, am I right?

 

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018121700/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Day 8

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018121700/192/500h_anom.na.png

[GHweatherChris]

Its just so stupid.

 

Read back the entire discussion. I did not bring this up.

 

Several people who are REALLY obsessed with me.

[TT-SEA]

d**n a lot of stupid drama on here like a bunch of teenage girls. Arguing or bickering over absolutely nothing.

 

00z EPS in 1 hour 50 minutes(Pivotal site)

 

 

No doubt!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z ECMWF much closer to delivering. Still a long ways to go, but progress is progress, am I right?

 

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018121700/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Day 8

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018121700/192/500h_anom.na.png

 

I guess that is pretty meh.

[GHweatherChris]

Indeed... but a nice chunk of western WA has not been drier than normal this year. And geography explains it all. The green area is favored for rain with NW flow... and that has been more dominate than usual this year.

What defines a nice chunk?

 

Looks to me about 75 percent or so of Western Washington has been drier than normal.... that actually seems like a nice chunk!

[Gradient Keeper]

As I said, a long ways to go. I noticed Days 5-7 were a bit less splitty 140 W upstream to Bering Sea.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 37 minutes