snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Redemption. Looking forward to Euro. This could indeed be redemption. I was going out of my mind seeing such a lame winter in such a deep solar minimum. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 This is going to unfold with short notice. I am certain that snow and cold are coming... in very early February. I lost faith... but should have just stuck with my original prediction from 2 weeks ago. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Half of the members on the Canadian ensemble are good and that includes the control model. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Very excited about the prospects coming up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Reinforcing cold shot on the FV3 just after day 10. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 I lost faith... but should have just stuck with my original prediction from 2 weeks ago. Yup, too bad. Doesn’t count now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Currently 39* with a low of 33* Fed Way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yup, too bad. Doesn’t count now. Oh well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Not at all sold on anything meaningful yet, but it would be pretty crazy to even get into a moderately cold pattern in early February in a Niño. Not a lot of recent analogs for that sort of thing. 1995 is the only one that comes to mind but that was later, and a pretty quick hitter. I realize we are technically in warm neutral territory now, but this winter will still go down as a niño. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Meanwhile....I have a cold foggy day going here. Nice to have it feeling like winter while it's still January. On another note...it will be super rare if we have a good to great February after such a totally lame Nov - Jan, but it can and has happened. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Not at all sold on anything meaningful yet, but it would be pretty crazy to even get into a moderately cold pattern in early February in a Niño. Not a lot of recent analogs for that sort of thing. 1995 is the only one that comes to mind but that was later, and a pretty quick hitter. I realize we are technically in warm neutral territory now, but this winter will still go down as a niño. A really good ECMWF run would put me over the 50% mark. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Meanwhile....I have a cold foggy day going here. Nice to have it feeling like winter while it's still January. On another note...it will be super rare if we have a good to great February after such a totally lame Nov - Jan, but it can and has happened.Yeah, basically what I have been thinking too. Can’t think of any modern examples, really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 A really good ECMWF run would put me over the 50% mark. I feel like we are at 80-90% already with the solid 00Z EPS run last night. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nothwesterly flow with a short jaunt over the ocean and then back inland is actually far better than a strait northerly shot since it guarantees moisture will be picked up allowing precip to happen. Far to often with a strait northerly blow you don't get the lift and that cancels out the only fun part of the cold equation. THE SNOW. so I am thrilled to see this pattern, looks to be a convergence snow jackpot for parts of Puget Sound. Probably will be two of them as the Straight of Georgia will provide for a northern one as well for Skagit County too. Thanks Mother Nature for salvaging this busted winter. ************* Think snowThat's a cascade dumpage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Significant snowfall on round two on the FV3 as well. Good things happen with 150 blocks. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah, basically what I have been thinking too. Can’t think of any modern examples, really. Especially for a long lasting event like this is shown to be. 1886 - 87 is one that comes to mind. I'll have to check what the ENSO was on that. 1995 was nothing like what the models are showing here. The weakness of this El Nino and the fact it's already dissipating could play a role, and of course we should have had some action early in the winter given the context. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Holy sheit! Round three shown on the FV3! Looks to be the snowiest of them all. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nothwesterly flow with a short jaunt over the ocean and then back inland is actually far better than a strait northerly shot since it guarantees moisture will be picked up allowing precip to happen. Far to often with a strait northerly blow you don't get the lift and that cancels out the only fun part of the cold equation. THE SNOW. so I am thrilled to see this pattern, looks to be a convergence snow jackpot for parts of Puget Sound. Probably will be two of them as the Straight of Georgia will provide for a northern one as well for Skagit County too. Thanks Mother Nature for salvaging this busted winter. ************* Think snowYeah I would think that pattern would favour eastern portions of Victoria for some straight effect snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Not at all sold on anything meaningful yet, but it would be pretty crazy to even get into a moderately cold pattern in early February in a Niño. Not a lot of recent analogs for that sort of thing. 1995 is the only one that comes to mind but that was later, and a pretty quick hitter.I realize we are technically in warm neutral territory now, but this winter will still go down as a niño.How can you not have hope in the BALL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Super Bowl Snowstorm!!! This is gonna be a bigtime regional event if this pans out. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Especially for a long lasting event like this is shown to be. 1886 - 87 is one that comes to mind. I'll have to check what the ENSO was on that. 1995 was nothing like what the models are showing here. The weakness of this El Nino and the fact it's already dissipating could play a role, and of course we should have had some action early in the winter given the context. 1887 was a fairly strong La Nina. It would be the best example of a terrible NDJ turning into a good winter, but it was dead opposite ENSO and in the midst of perhaps our blockiest stretch of winters on record. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nobody say a goddam thing!!! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 That FV3 run would be up there in the top 5 for early Feb events in the last 100 years or more. Really amazing stuff. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nobody say a goddam thing!!! Already told my family! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 1887 was a fairly strong La Nina. It would be the best example of a terrible NDJ turning into a good winter, but it was dead opposite ENSO and in the midst of perhaps our blockiest stretch of winters on record. This one would be a major upset if it happens no doubt. In 1987-88 we had a situation that came close to greatness in early Feb. The local mets were really hyping that, but it fell through in the end. At that point models weren't nearly as good as they are now of course. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 This one would be a major upset if it happens no doubt. In 1987-88 we had a situation that came close to greatness in early Feb. The local mets were really hyping that, but it fell through in the end. At that point models weren't nearly as good as they are now of course.What happened? Slid east? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 This one would be a major upset if it happens no doubt. In 1987-88 we had a situation that came close to greatness in early Feb. The local mets were really hyping that, but it fell through in the end. At that point models weren't nearly as good as they are now of course.Yeah if that situation happened today the models would probly have not shown as significant of an event. If the models keep showing this, how long til NWS SEA and PDX pulls the trigger? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah if that situation happened today the models would probly have not shown as significant of an event. If the models keep showing this, how long til NWS SEA and PDX pulls the trigger? Probably not until Thursday or Friday. It will be WAAAAAAAAY later than you want. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 This one would be a major upset if it happens no doubt. In 1987-88 we had a situation that came close to greatness in early Feb. The local mets were really hyping that, but it fell through in the end. At that point models weren't nearly as good as they are now of course.Hopefully the local mets don't jinx this one for you guys by opening their big mouths. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah if that situation happened today the models would probly have not shown as significant of an event. If the models keep showing this, how long til NWS SEA and PDX pulls the trigger? LOL, so far there's been about 24 hours of decent model runs with no concrete agreement even from that. It's going to take another day or two before any mention of a pattern change is even warranted, let alone hyped. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Cold air much closer on the euro day 6. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Hi. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Don't try to claim credit again, you blew it Whatever Bryant. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Whatever Bryant. It is what it is. You were mocking people for seeing good things in the models just over 24 hours ago. Accept and embrace. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 No lowland snow on the 12Z ECMWF for next Sunday. Trending too far offshore now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 LOL, so far there's been about 24 hours of decent model runs with no concrete agreement even from that. It's going to take another day or two before any mention of a pattern change is even warranted, let alone hyped.I’m still pretty floored to see the ensemble agreement for anything in early February. Looks like it could potentially be a several day period of -PNA as well, as opposed to a quick hitter like one might expect in the context of this winter. Still not quite sure what to make of it. This post doesn’t have anything to do with whether or not the NWS should start issuing warnings ten days in advance, btw. Just some general discussion on how strange it would be to get anything in the window advertised in a winter like this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 It is what it is. You were mocking people for seeing good things in the models just over 24 hours ago. Accept and embrace. I don't really care. I am not pushing anything. I figured the models would swing to good at the last minute early on and I lost faith as well... but in the end that is what happened. Whatever. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.