January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Screenshot_20190126-104223_Facebook.jpg

Nice!

[Esquimalt]

Day 9, 12 and 15

 

1C689075-3539-451F-8254-E0626143388D.png2A6CC458-9497-4F71-87C0-E1B6FA7782D3.pngDB6569C8-DAA5-4B90-9B93-E10590999526.png

What do the temp maps look like?

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I may have been wrong.  Sometimes when I totally give up is when something good happens.  Every model is showing some kind of a -PNA setup in early February now.  The improvement in the ECMWF ensemble vs the 0z is particularly striking.  If a cold pattern verifies it would be the third Feb in a row to have a decent round of winter weather here.  More than any other winter month decent Febs seem to come in clusters.

 

In retrospect I should have given more weight to the LRC since we have had a trough over us at the beginning of each month for quite some time now.

[Jesse]

What do the temp maps look like?

Probably pretty blue as well.

[snow_wizard]

What do the temp maps look like?

 

The mean 850s are 4 to 6C below normal for a week or so.  The control is quite cold.

[ShawniganLake]

 

 

[Deweydog]

Looks like I may have been wrong. Sometimes when I totally give up is when something good happens. Every model is showing some kind of a -PNA setup in early February now. The improvement in the ECMWF ensemble vs the 0z is particularly striking. If a cold pattern verifies it would be the third Feb in a row to have a decent round of winter weather here. More than any other winter month decent Febs seem to come in clusters.

 

In retrospect I should have given more weight to the LRC since we have had a trough over us at the beginning of each month for quite some time now.

Welcome back Jim!

[MossMan]

Welcome back Jim!

Which means welcome back winter!!

[Requiem]

Looks like I may have been wrong.  Sometimes when I totally give up is when something good happens.  Every model is showing some kind of a -PNA setup in early February now.  The improvement in the ECMWF ensemble vs the 0z is particularly striking.  If a cold pattern verifies it would be the third Feb in a row to have a decent round of winter weather here.  More than any other winter month decent Febs seem to come in clusters.

 

In retrospect I should have given more weight to the LRC since we have had a trough over us at the beginning of each month for quite some time now.

 

Your return gives me hope!

[Deweydog]

Which means welcome back winter!!

Often actually means the opposite. Most jimeltdowns have to persist for 4-6 weeks before they manifest themselves in the troposphere.

[snow_wizard]

Unless the inversion mixes out in a big way over the next four hours, today will end up a lot cooler than expected. Still just 39 here, 40 at PDX.

 

Nice to see late January still inverting, at very least.

 

Any time is Jan is normally a good bet for inversions.  Pretty nippy here today as well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[snow_wizard]

Your return gives me hope!

 

 

We shall see.  At least some kind of a cool to cold period is looking like a better bet at this point.  I'm really surprised the models have come back so quickly.  The warm ENSO winding down might be helping us out.  If we could end up with neutral to cold ENSO for this year and next winter we might have a shot at a cool year.

[Andrew.]

Crappy day here today, wish it was snowing instead.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Crappy day here today, wish it was snowing instead.

 

IMG_20190126_102613_069.jpg

 

Kauai? I forgot where you said you were headed?

[Phil]

We shall see. At least some kind of a cool to cold period is looking like a better bet at this point. I'm really surprised the models have come back so quickly. The warm ENSO winding down might be helping us out. If we could end up with neutral to cold ENSO for this year and next winter we might have a shot at a cool year.

The bolded seems very unlikely to me. If that happens (which would imply a high amplitude +QBO and massive off-equator NPAC heat/exhaust load dwarfing that of 2014/15) then it would essentially guarantee a strong/super niño in 2020/21, IMO. And it wouldn’t fit the timing of the IPWP resonance frequency nearly as well if the niño were in 2020/21, even though the QBO/solar forcing might be better conditioned then.

 

Given the inertia of the IPWP and solar/QBO forcing, it really does favor an El Niño this year (in my opinion).

[luvssnow_spokane]

Put all of my forks in the garbage disposal and turned it on...my wife is not happy.

 

Hopefully the models are now locking onto some colder weather coming up!

I put mine in the freezer in a large block of ice

[Phil]

I think since we’ve only recently become used to the return of multiyear +ENSO, we can sometimes underestimate their duration. They used to be much more frequent, especially back in the 19th century and possibly beforehand. The 1985-1995 period was sort of a last minute aberration with a number of potential contributing factors (O^3, vulcanism, pseudo-resonant decadal cycles of the IPWP/ITCZ/annular mode(s).

 

Since 1998 (the last 20 years) the only true case of multiyear +ENSO was 2014/15 and 2015/16, while there were plenty of multiyear -ENSO stretches during that timeframe.

[snow_wizard]

The bolded seems very unlikely to me. If that happens (which would imply a high amplitude +QBO and massive off-equator NPAC heat/exhaust load dwarfing that of 2014/15) then it would essentially guarantee a strong/super niño in 2020/21, IMO. And it wouldn’t fit the timing of the IPWP resonance frequency nearly as well if the niño were in 2020/21, even though the QBO/solar forcing might be better conditioned then.

 

Given the inertia of the IPWP and solar/QBO forcing, it really does favor an El Niño this year (in my opinion).

 

On the other hand back to back warm ENSO years at solar minimum would be extremely rare...at least by recent standards.  I will say that in the long run we might be better off to have a Nino over the next year though.  If we do we would probably be in a for huge Nina afterward.

[Andrew.]

Kauai? I forgot where you said you were headed?

Maui, staying above lahaina, but took a drive up to Napili for the day.

[umadbro]

I wish we had some BSF to clear this place out a bit.

[kokaneekidz]

Is that the Big Island Hawaii??? Near Kona??????

 

 

Crappy day here today, wish it was snowing instead.

IMG_20190126_102613_069.jpg

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maui, staying above lahaina, but took a drive up to Napili for the day.

 

Nice, I love staying in Kihei.  There's an amazing food truck close to the middle beach there every day.

[Omegaraptor]

53 on Mt Hood Skibowl... 46 in Portland... I love inversions.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Druncle has action sliding east of us 

[Jesse]

PDX at 43 with maybe an hour or two of heating to go. I think Mark had today hitting 56. Nice to see things bust on the cool side for once.

 

I’m sure we will see a few warm busting days to make up for it early next week, once the offshore flow/downslope really kicks in.

[Andrew.]

Is that the Big Island Hawaii??? Near Kona??????

Nope, Maui. The island in the distance is lanai

[Deweydog]

Thicknesses lower tomorrow by about 6dm. Has me worried about this inversion’s sustainability...

[Jesse]

Thicknesses lower tomorrow by about 6dm. Has me worried about this inversion’s sustainability...

Definitely going to break over the next few days.

[Jesse]

18z tries to put us in an almost Niña-esque pattern in the LR. Have a tough time buying that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

A step back but still ok for now.

[Deweydog]

18z tries to put us in an almost Niña-esque pattern in the LR. Have a tough time buying that.

Another 10+ day skeptic is born.

[snow_wizard]

I really like the way models are putting anomalous low pressure under the expected 150 ridge during week two.  Likely to shift the blocking regime far enough north to get things decently cold at least.

[snow_wizard]

The FV3 has been getting pretty sexy the last couple of runs.  Some pretty real cold with snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

A step back but still ok for now.

Still betting on GREEN!   

[snow_wizard]

The FV3 has brutal cold over SW Canada later in the run with a PV lobe rotating toward us.  Huge potential once again.

[snow_wizard]

Still betting on GREEN!   

 

All I will say at this point is a -PNA is looking like a decent bet.  Every model is showing it now.  That's the first time this winter that has been the case.

[Omegaraptor]

Below freezing all of next weekend on Mt Hood with fresh snow!

[Timmy]

Below freezing all of next weekend on Mt Hood with fresh snow!

that’s rare in January!

[HighlandExperience]

The FV3 has brutal cold over SW Canada later in the run with a PV lobe rotating toward us. Huge potential once again.

We still might have winter after all