January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like slight ensemble improvements on the 06z.

[MossMan]

Looks like slight ensemble improvements on the 06z.

Yep appears to be. Starting to get slightly excited that I might actually get to see my new place in a blanket of white...maybe...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 was another doozy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean bottoms out at -35.8C 850 mb temps at Minneapolis. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the EURO is showing highs in the 42-46 range for the Willamette Valley next Sunday-Tuesday. Not super exciting, but average highs are approaching 50 by the first week in February, so solidly below average. Looks like a 42/26 day for SLE next Tuesday which is solidly chilly for February 5th. About a -9 departure. 

 

Also showing snow levels down to about 1000' by early next week before the moisture runs out. 

[Farmboy]

If only this pattern would've shown up for you guys a month ago...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If only this pattern would've shown up for you guys a month ago...

 

Well...January 2017 was obviously a fluke.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here in Tulsa expecting a high in the mid 50s today. 850s should hit about +8C this afternoon and crash to -12C by tomorrow evening. We should just be on the edge of the big arctic airmass though so temps shouldn't be to crazy this week. Also no snow cover. 

[ShawniganLake]

Most promising looking ICON run this morning. Though it has limited range so the early February period is really just coming into focus.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Most promising looking ICON run this morning. Though it has limited range so the early February period is really just coming into focus.

 

You aren't kidding. 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z looks better in the shorter term, not sure we are going to get the amplification we need for something overly exciting though.

[Esquimalt]

[TT-SEA]

Pretty incredible that the Feb 1-5 period came back and is now pretty likely to deliver.    

[Front Ranger]

12z looks like it will get pretty cold within 7 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would like to see more amplification, but CANNOT COMPLAIN.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago

More

Interesting twist... Models are trending in favor of a robust -PNA. For what the PNA loading pattern looks like: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.loading.shtml …

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice shot of chilly air. 

 

[GobBluth]

Would like to see more amplification, but CANNOT COMPLAIN.

 

That's a cascade dumpage.

[Timmy]

Too bad the gem has backed off

[ShawniganLake]

Too bad the gem has backed off

It’s ensemble looked decent. Probably better than the GEFS at 500mb for the 0z

[HighlandExperience]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like international falls hit -46 air temp. Wow

[TT-SEA]

Looks like international falls hit -46 air temp. Wow

 

And colder air is coming in after the system tonight. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I love the pattern showing. This does not look to be a dry blast.

[snow_wizard]

Really nice GFS run this morning.  Two major cold shots being shown.  The second one has an almost January 1969 look to it with the connection to the -NAO

[snow_wizard]

I love the pattern showing. This does not look to be a dry blast.

 

Looking really good at this point.  We could have our third February in a row with a decent shot of winter.  The ability of February to still perform makes our January woes even more inexplicable.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice shot of chilly air. 

 

 

Oh my f*ck

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And colder air is coming in after the system tonight.

 

That minus 46 broke a record from 1966 by ten and is the 5th coldest ever recorded there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really nice GFS run this morning.  Two major cold shots being shown.  The second one has an almost January 1969 look to it with the connection to the -NAO

 

Let's not go that crazy just yet. We will never see that type of event in EUG ever again.

[snow_wizard]

OMG the FV3 is even more awesome than the GFS at hour 180.  This is getting close to the believable range now.

[snow_wizard]

Absolutely wicked Fraser blast on the FV3 about a week out.  Lots of low pressure involved, but precip maps aren't finished yet.

[Esquimalt]

Holy god the ensemble improvement is crazy this morning! So far mean bottoms out at -6.3˚C here.

[Front Ranger]

And colder air is coming in after the system tonight. 

 

Yeah, the coldest air doesn't arrive until more than two days from now.

[MossMan]

Yeah, the coldest air doesn't arrive until more than two days from now.

Still time for the road trip!

[snow_wizard]

Incredible ensemble improvment!  OMG!

[ShawniganLake]

Let's not go that crazy just yet. We will never see that type of event in EUG ever again.

This will not rival 1969 in anyway.

[snow_wizard]

Too bad the gem has backed off

 

The pieces are still there it just doesn't come together quite right.

[snow_wizard]

This will not rival 1969 in anyway.

 

Probably not.  I was just referring to the bridge to the -NAO.  It could rival 1969 for cold in the Western lowlands, but probably not snow.

 

EDIT:  When I say rival it for cold I mean for coldest temps, but not duration.  January 1969 wasn't brutally cold, but the duration of the cold and deep snowfall made it incredible.

[snow_wizard]

FV3 has widespread lowland snow early next week followed by major cold.

[HighlandExperience]

FV3 has widespread lowland snow early next week followed by major cold.

Redemption. Looking forward to Euro.