Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs Went from 12.9 on 18z to 12.8 this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs Went from 12.9 on 18z to 12.8 this runD**n man, those model shifts can really hurt you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 on a global model with the 15 miles is nothing. Anyhow not worth quibbling about. Makes no difference to meNot disagreeing, ..that run doesn't make a huge difference anyway. Its just tad south. Thats all. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfsWent from 12.9 on 18z to 12.8 this runGFS Rock steady with this storm. Looking good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Been a while we’re ive had my own personal prediction (3-6) not change for so long. Kind of refreshing for a change. Now let’s just not have any stupid happen at the last minute lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The snow Gods have answered my prayers for you! Hope you score at least 6” and build up that snow pack.Thanks bud. It’s been a while, no doubt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Doesn't look like their are any major changes on the FV3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Gem is way weak and south 1000 mb at hr 36 way south of the boarder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Starting to believe this one may happen...had my doubts all along that the totals were just too ridiculous but seems to be a reality. Driving from Milwaukee toMadison tomorrow evening, should be fun. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Still sharing the love 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Thanks bud. It’s been a while, no doubt. Hope you get the goods SPS. Good luck up there! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Hope you get the goods SPS. Good luck up there!Thanks. I’d be happy with just 4-6” if this doesn’t pan out as modeled. Pretty easy to make a guy happy that’s had only 12” for the season. Good luck to you as well over there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Gem is way weak and south 1000 mb at hr 36 way south of the boarder 27/0z at h36 isn't like that on TT Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 snku_acc.us_mw (2).png Still sharing the love 0z GEM much further south for those of us east in SMI. Gets warning level snows well south of The Mitt into NIN. IWX gonna have another situation on their hands if the GEM is correct 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Canadian is south Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Gem is way weak and south 1000 mb at hr 36 way south of the boarderYou sure about that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 0z GEM much further south for those of us east in SMI. Gets warning level snows well south of The Mitt into NIN. IWX gonna have another situation on their hands if the GEM is correctYup..looking much better ma man. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 0z Fv3 identical to 18z in SLP placement and strength at hr 36. Right over East Dubzz’s place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 You sure about that?B/W maps got me lol https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 B/W maps got me lol https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gifI don’t even look at those anymore. I hate them lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Can we lock in the GFS FV3? http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=42&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs_fv3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 @ Niko If south trends continue, I'm sure headlines will be forth-coming soon enough. Doesn't really hit Marshall until Monday morning. Scored at least 1/2" from tonight's clipper. Are you getting anything there yet? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Can we lock in the GFS FV3? http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=42&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs_fv3 Ummm..no American models still playing catch-up, they've not been maintained since the shut-down 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 0z UKMET went south Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 @ Niko If south trends continue, I'm sure headlines will be forth-coming soon enough. Doesn't really hit Marshall until Monday morning. Scored at least 1/2" from tonight's clipper. Are you getting anything there yet?Currently 0.7" so far. Probably end up w an inch or so. Radar looks impressive. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Ummm..no American models still playing catch-up, they've not been maintained since the shut-downFunniest thing I’ve seen on here in awhile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 It’s hard to tell for sure because I don’t have enough info loaded, but the Euro I believe is the same. Could be roughly north or north, but no major changes in track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Got the SLP loaded and it may be slightly south, but so little you wouldn’t even know the difference. Euro is staying further south, but the differences are minimal at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Snowfall from Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Back in the saddle after a long day yesterday. This has been a nail biter tracking this system around these parts trying to see if we can score some of the heavier snows. It's finally nice to see a true hybrid clipper tracking through the region and laying down quite the expansive snow shield. All the model data is pointing towards S/C Wisco get shellacked! Nice to see the 00z Euro still trying to painting 6"+ across I-88 on north. Boy, places from Kenosha, WI on north are in an ideal spot for Lehs and then back-end LES. There are prob going to be multiple bands coming in off LM into the MKE area. Meantime, not sure if this is just noise, but there has been an ever so slight S trend in the higher rez models across N IL. For instance, check out the animations below from both the high rez NAM and RGEM. You can see the last 4 runs a notable S/SW trend in the track of the SLP across IA. It's not necessarily a big deal for those across MN/WI but indeed something to monitor for N IA into N IL and points East. Also, if you look at the most recent trends off the NAM the heavier precip is skirting a tad south as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Interesting write up from LOT suggesting 1"+/hr snowfall rates across the region and the fact that they were debating to issue Warning's across the I-88/290 counties. For snow tonight, have tried to account for a quicker onset thanthe mean of guidance, especially for north central Illinois. Asjust seen the past two days with weaker clippers, snow onsethappened quickly, and the warm, moist advection as well aspositive vorticity advection is robust with this system. Snowshould envelop the CWA moving east-southeast through the eveningand early overnight. Precipitable waters in the warm sector ofthis system as sampled last evening in British Columbia (rare wehere use a sounding from up there!) were one half inch. Modelssteer this over the forecast area tonight, with 3.5 to 4 g/kgmixing ratios on 280-290K surfaces where isentropic lift is large.In addition, steep lapse rates from 800-500 mb as sampled willalso advect into the warm advection precipitation swath with thissystem. This moisture and the thermodynamics, along with strongparameters for lift, should provide for a window of time withsnowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour with likely quarter milevisibility in the northern CWA, especially along and north ofI-88/I-290. High-resolution models and the SREF add confidence tothis in showing high rates late this evening and overnight inthis area.Some parts of the I-88/I-290 counties may see over six inches ofsnowfall if those heavier rates can last a while, but felt theAdvisory message was best there, with the warning message over thefar north where confidence was higher. Snowfall ratios should bedropping as the night goes on and profiles moderate, but themodel signal is very consistent for QPF being high late thisevening into overnight, so that lends to decent confidence insnowfall amounts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Here is the NWS WPC 50%/95% Percentile snowfall range to provide a range of what we can expect. I remember posting this map using the 95% percentile range for the Jan 11th/12th S MW storm and it did quite well. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 I'm seeing this subtle S/SW shift in the storm track in the GFS and the latest 06z GFS is certainly leaning towards more snow across NE IA/N IL. This allows the intense banding to pivot a little farther S into N IL for a longer duration and ups snowfall totals. I'd like to see today's 12z suite to jump on board if this is legit or not. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 06z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah DMX mentioned 1"/hr rates as well. I'm liking the S shift. Pretty soon it will be radar trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 I am liking what DVN is saying for me. Up to 6” now, possible 35 mph gusts. Mentions heavy snow at times. I am still locked in at 5”. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Chicago is def gonna reel this one away from me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 This storm is trending south from what I am seeing. A little bit more south and Detroit gets hammered. My area points north is now in the heavy snow zone w 1 to 2" per/hr snowfall rates are expected from NOAA. All models continued to trend south this morning. Also, Chicago is looking a lot better now in receiving heavy snow as well. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah DMX mentioned 1"/hr rates as well. I'm liking the S shift. Pretty soon it will be radar trends.Me too. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 ...does someone get a blizzard warning out of this?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.