PRISM Posted March 17, 2014 Report Share Posted March 17, 2014 Four-Corner State Interests: Interesting that the latest NMME and IMME seasonal and monthly mean forecasts for April to October 2014 are now available at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ are suggesting a rather active SW Summer Monsoon. This trend continues from last month’s run. It will be interesting to see if NOAA's CPC upgrades their June-July-August precipitation forecasts from EC to above with this Thursday's Seasonal Outlook update: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png Quote P R I S M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 18, 2014 Report Share Posted March 18, 2014 Four-Corner State Interests: Interesting that the latest NMME and IMME seasonal and monthly mean forecasts for April to October 2014 are now available at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ are suggesting a rather active SW Summer Monsoon. This trend continues from last month’s run.[/size] It will be interesting to see if NOAA's CPC upgrades their June-July-August precipitation forecasts from EC to above with this Thursday's Seasonal Outlook update: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png Probably a hot summer in the NW if that is true. It seems like troughs in the NW kill the monsoon to some extent. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted March 18, 2014 Report Share Posted March 18, 2014 Probably a hot summer in the NW if that is true. It seems like troughs in the NW kill the monsoon to some extent. Troughs in the NW tend to cause the Four Corners High to be suppressed to the south and east of its usual location, creating dry southwesterly flow over the SW deserts for much of NV, CA, and AZ. This happened to an extreme in the very cool summer of 2010 and to a slightly lesser extent, the summer of 2011. The last couple of summers have had a very active summer monsoon, and there was a ton of monsoonal moisture over my area last summer. If El Nino does develop, the SW monsoon will likely be more active this year with a much higher chance of moisture from decaying eastern Pacific tropical systems being entrained into the flow. Even areas in Socal west of the mountains may have an elevated chance of some summer showers and thunderstorms if everything comes together just right. There may even be more of a monsoonal moisture intrusion further north into Norcal, Oregon, Washington and other places further east at times this summer, as western ridging is more favored during an El Nino summer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 With el nino in the works I tend to favor an active monsoon based on climo. But beyond that the general trend of not sending systems south should help the interior heat up more quickly and get the monsoon going. I would say about a 60-70% chance of an above average monsoon at this point based on these things but a lot of time for things to change still. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrite Posted April 16, 2014 Report Share Posted April 16, 2014 As I recall, some of the big no-show SW monsoons have occurred with El Nino. The idea has been that the enhanced subtropical jet shears off the northward flow of subtropical moisture. I don't expect this to be a record-setting EN, so I guess that anything is still possible. I am not betting on a big monsoon this year however. Newbie, whatever... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 As always, effects of ENSO are only best guesses. I could definitely see what you are saying happening, even if for now I am thinking otherwise. Thanks for the input! Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PRISM Posted April 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 looks like NOAA CPC is going for enhanced monsoons: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_prcp.gif Quote P R I S M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted April 18, 2014 Report Share Posted April 18, 2014 Nice, I like it. Do you have any thoughts Prism? Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 25, 2014 Report Share Posted May 25, 2014 Looks like things are progressing nicely. Looks like very strong +PDO conditions have set in along with the strengthening el nino. We have much above average water temperature along the entire west coast. This has fueled the strongest may Hurricane on record in the east pacific with Amanda at 155 mph right now. Anyway all this goes to show we should have above average chances of getting some monsoonal moisture into the SW. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted May 26, 2014 Report Share Posted May 26, 2014 I still believe this will be a good monsoon season for the SW especially if El Nino continues to develop and additional moisture from the remnants of Eastern Pacific tropical systems is entrained into the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted July 5, 2014 Report Share Posted July 5, 2014 It looks like everything is going well. Strong western high building in. Continued activity in the pacific, and a good fetch of moisture being drawn in now. Could be an exciting summer for the monsoon. I know there was a lot of flooding in southern Utah today. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 5, 2014 Report Share Posted July 5, 2014 It looks like everything is going well. Strong western high building in. Continued activity in the pacific, and a good fetch of moisture being drawn in now. Could be an exciting summer for the monsoon. I know there was a lot of flooding in southern Utah today.There were a few isolated heavy thunderstorms in the mountains of Socal this afternoon with the first influx of monsoonal moisture of the season. I still believe that this could be a really good monsoon season for the SW U.S. in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 Even Phoenix picked up some rain.That is good news. They desperately need it, and hopefully they get more as the summer wears on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 A nice surge of moisture still looking likely all the way up to my area Wed-Fri or so. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 A nice surge of moisture still looking likely all the way up to my area Wed-Fri or so.Hopefully your area receives some much-needed rainfall during that time frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 I think we will get at least one moderate soaking Dan. How about you, any chance down there? Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 I think we will get at least one moderate soaking Dan. How about you, any chance down there?There is about a 20% chance of showers / t-storms for the mountain and high desert regions for the next couple of days, but no activity expected in the coastal and valley areas. However, the chance is iffy because most of the moisture plume is east of the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 Yeah I see that Chris. Lots of showers and storms in central Utah right now too. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 28, 2014 Report Share Posted July 28, 2014 Kind of interesting...your monsoon actually sparked a shortwave which made it all the way over here in the form of a big MCS. Actually delivered several inches of rain w/ hours of prolific lightning Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted July 28, 2014 Report Share Posted July 28, 2014 A mesoscale convective system. The simple answer is a giant blob of thunderstorms...but I think I posted a module in the met 101 section if you want more info. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 29, 2014 Report Share Posted July 29, 2014 Yep, what Black Hole said. This one was unique in that it remained surface-based well into the evening despite the lack of any previous theta-e pooling and modest, unidirectional shear Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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