February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks alot like what we just had.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like the band might really be trying to push in here. Suspect it will mostly fall apart. This D**n thing seems to have a mind of its own.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This weekend could be a lot like what we just went through... Very similar on the 00z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Welp this run is not going to be good for Oregonians below 1000'.

[Deweydog]

Coast could do well with it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Light snow falling here. Dusting on tops of the cars, roofs and grasses but not yet on the roads.

[ShawniganLake]

Didn't give us much up here either. A few dustings of an inch or two but other than that mostly dry and chilly. I'm hoping it won't be like that for this one.

I think we are going to do well later this week. Could be something big. Just a hunch for now.

[FroYoBro]

Been just a couple of miles away from radar returns for the last 30 minutes. #fillin

[Perturbed Member]

Ugh the 00z GFS.

 

The usual track these BC sliders take here. Southerlies and rain, low slides south and offshore flow comes on and no precip  left. Luckily there is still time for it to change but I hope the euro doesn't show the same crap. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Coast could do well with it.

Looks exactly like what we just had only west more.

[Deweydog]

Looks exactly like what we just had only west more.

Pretty uncanny.

[Requiem]

NOT a good GFS run, especially for Oregon lowlands /:

[Deweydog]

Still 300 hours out. PLENTY of time for it to change.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Feb 2014 feels like an eternity ago.

[Requiem]

Looks like the EURO wants to give OR the goods, the GFS wants to give them to WA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well looks chilly!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

NOT a good GFS run, especially for Oregon lowlands /:

It will change 16 times before then.

[Blizzard777]

I have never even come close to experiencing a flash freeze in my life. Are they fun?

My wife didn’t think so but I like them!

I believe it was 2008 and the Seahawks were playing Greenbay here. My wife was Working downtown at the time.

Anyhow I was tracking the Arctic front and saw that their was an actual band of moisture riding down with it. Called my wife and told her to get out of Seattle quick! Well, that didn’t happen. The Front overtook her and the rest of Seattle and gridlocked the whole city and freeway system. To make matters worse she had a flat tire and was just fighting to get to a tire place first to get it fixed. Everything froze like that! She was stuck in traffic till 4 in the morning trying to get back to Federal Way.

Meanwhile when the front hit Federal Way the North winds was ferocious! I’m mean the trees were violently whipping about! Lost electricity immediately. It was like a blizzard for two hours and then just stopped but everything frozen just like that. 2 inches of snow fell but that’s all that was needed to bring Seattle to its knees. Awesome memory

[Esquimalt]

I think we are going to do well later this week. Could be something big. Just a hunch for now.

Dang, looks like a foot of snow is dropped here from that late week system. 16 inches for you. What do you think will be the outcome of that late week system, your best bet from this far out?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is better

[epiceast]

From what I can tell exact placement of deformation zones are largely dictated by local dynamics. I don't think what is happening east of the Cascades and what happens over here is quite 1:1. That is to say trying to extrapolate radar behavior over there to here is probably a crapshoot. PDX radar is the best way to go considering it is showing what is happening around PDX.

Yeah the low level placement and rates(low level clouds seeding snowflakes with additional accreation) are definitely a local phenomena. But the upper levels(700mb and higher) still drive the dynamics of the deformation zone/front. I was mostly just looking to see if there were any positive dynamics nearby to disprove what i saw on PDX radar mostly, but PDT zone looked even worse from band development perspective, more of a degeneration/shearing.

[Esquimalt]

GEM somewhat on board with the snow event late this week. 4 or 5 inches in areas of the sound, and not overly bad for the portland area.

[ShawniganLake]

Dang, looks like a foot of snow is dropped here from that late week system. 16 inches for you. What do you think will be the outcome of that late week system, your best bet from this far out?

Wow. I hadn’t seen the GFS yet. Best run of the year for Vancouver Island

[Jesse]

GEM is better

Even worse for PDX?

[Esquimalt]

Wow. I hadn’t seen the GFS yet. Best run of the year for Vancouver Island

Is the pivotal resolution better than the tropical tidbits? Tropical tidbits shows a transition over to rain yet pivotal keeps it as snow. With the track shown I would bet it'll stay as snow but I'd like to hear your take on it.

[MossMan]

My wife didn’t think so but I like them!

I believe it was 2008 and the Seahawks were playing Greenbay here. My wife was Working downtown at the time.

Anyhow I was tracking the Arctic front and saw that their was an actual band of moisture riding down with it. Called my wife and told her to get out of Seattle quick! Well, that didn’t happen. The Front overtook her and the rest of Seattle and gridlocked the whole city and freeway system. To make matters worse she had a flat tire and was just fighting to get to a tire place first to get it fixed. Everything froze like that! She was stuck in traffic till 4 in the morning trying to get back to Federal Way.

Meanwhile when the front hit Federal Way the North winds was ferocious! I’m mean the trees were violently whipping about! Lost electricity immediately. It was like a blizzard for two hours and then just stopped but everything frozen just like that. 2 inches of snow fell but that’s all that was needed to bring Seattle to its knees. Awesome memory

I remember that gridlock lasting the entire night, like the Dec 1990 traffic nightmare!

[Blizzard777]

I just rembered a post on FB where people put their faces in the snow and their face imprint was left and looked really cool!

Tried it and all I got was a cold face and now I’m wide awake

Snopes...Fail

[Jesse]

Snowing moderately here now. Streets are finally turning white.

[Requiem]

Even worse for PDX?

I think so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even worse for PDX?

 

Pretty good! And the ICON isn't terrible either. But even Lord GFS is KOLLD!

[epiceast]

WRF paints solid snow 4pm tonight to 4pm tomorrow for PDX metro

[Deweydog]

I think so.

You’re gonna have school FOREVER.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing moderately here now. Streets are finally turning white.

 

SCOREEEEEE

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Amazing the difference of the trough when the block shifts from 155 to 150.

[epiceast]

 

This is 10pm frame PST, so maybe wrf somewhat inaccurate...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My god is that another one on its heels???

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 34.  Last places to fall below freezing will likely be Albany and Tangent as they are still at 36.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't hate this run.

[Deweydog]

I don't hate this run.

Kid tested and Andrew approved!

[Andrew.]

Light snow has begun here in the west hills, 27.4 now.