February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Everytime I see something like this I think back to superbowl 17 and the major bust that ensued, even right as we headed into it. I hope we can make up for that this time around.

2017 had a nice stretch in early Jan here though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some light freezing rain here this morning

 

That is strange given the cold airmass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How does this look for your place?

 

The snow maps are extremely generous for snow up here. If there was a landfall north of Florence there would probably be about a 3-6 hour warm nose period during the event. It has the potential to easily be a 8-14" event. Tomorrow morning also has the potential for 6"+, but the snow level may be a few hundred feet above me, will be close tomorrow. I thought the snow level would be above me last night with a similar airmass, but it ended up being cold enough for all snow.

[ShawniganLake]

That is strange given the cold airmass.

Yea I saw the radar, looked out the window and thought WTF. Sort of makes me question my chances tonight with some models showing some weak deformation here. I’m assuming the mid levels will cool later today.

[Andrew.]

2017 had a nice stretch in early Jan here though.

Yup very true. I more so meant I'm trying not to get my hopes up for another letdown. This still feels very boom bust to me, but I think by tonight we will have a much better handle on it

[Esquimalt]

Yea I saw the radar, looked out the window and thought WTF. Sort of makes me question my chances tonight with some models showing some weak deformation here. I’m assuming the mid levels will cool later today.

Check out the HRDPS. Amazing for greater victoria and you as well to a certain extent.

[Jesse]

Some light freezing rain here this morning

Upper levels don’t seem warm enough for that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Upper levels don’t seem warm enough for that.

 

Could be some low level moisture. Pretty common in the midwest after snow events to have light freezing drizzle out of a low level warm layer even if 850mb temps are well below 0C.

[ShawniganLake]

Upper levels don’t seem warm enough for that.

It’s 31F here. The station at 1200ft just south of here is 34F.

[MossMan]

Interesting that when the temp is hovering around the 33-34 degree range that snow melts/falls extremely rapidly from the trees but the majority of the new snow that fell is still on the ground, deck, etc. is frozen in place.

[TT-SEA]

Craziness for much of the country looks to continue for a long time.

 

Minneapolis is at 31.7 inches of snow for February which is 5 inches above the record already and they have a blizzard warning for tonight and tomorrow.   Winds could gust to 50 mph tomorrow after another 5-7 inches of snow falls.    And then the high on Monday will be 5 above.   That is pretty crazy for this late in the season.   Looks like it will stay in the teens all week with more snow chances as well.  

[snow_wizard]

OMG!  Maybe the next ice age has begun.  The GFS is going places I simply can't believe after nearly a month of endless cold already.  It shows little doubt the cold is going to win the battle next week.  The latest FV3 has thicknesses dropping to 513 over SEA now.  Looks like the main chances for snow in SEA will be tomorrow morning and maybe later next week.

[HighlandExperience]

OMG! Maybe the next ice age has begun. The GFS is going places I simply can't believe after nearly a month of endless cold already. It shows little doubt the cold is going to win the battle next week. The latest FV3 has thicknesses dropping to 513 over SEA now. Looks like the main chances for snow in SEA will be tomorrow morning and maybe later next week.

I was wondering about tommorow morning. Did the 6z euro still show our area getting 1-3 inches. Seems like our best bet right now.

[TT-SEA]

It’s 31F here. The station at 1200ft just south of here is 34F.

 

 

34 here as well... at 1,000 feet.  

 

No precip falling and even some blue sky appearing.

[TT-SEA]

I was wondering about tommorow morning. Did the 6z euro still show our area getting 1-3 inches. Seems like our best bet right now.

 

Here is what the 00Z ECMWF showed for late tonight and tomorrow morning.   But the 12Z GFS and WRF are basically dry now in that period.   I think the general southward shift is also impacting the earlier snow.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Check out the HRDPS. Amazing for greater victoria and you as well to a certain extent.

That’s clearly overdone. It shows you guys getting 3-4” during the day today. It looks like it’s in the 40s there now.

[Jesse]

It’s 31F here. The station at 1200ft just south of here is 34F.

Must be pretty localized.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z UKMET trended slightly North with landfall.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[Esquimalt]

That’s clearly overdone. It shows you guys getting 3-4” during the day today. It looks like it’s in the 40s there now.

I figured it was showing evaporative cooling in the heavier shower around 3 or 4 pm.

[HighlandExperience]

Yes it does look like the UKmet has trended north a bit.

[Jesse]

Getting to the point on some of the models where the requisite small last minute northward shift could actually help put the Portland area in the sweet spot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z UKMET trended slightly North with landfall.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

Cape Blanco. 

[Jesse]

Yes it does look like the UKmet has trended north a bit.

Landfall still in like Coos Bay.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z GFS esemble was as cold as any we've seen for this entire event thus far.  Truly extraordinary.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Getting to the point on some of the models where the requisite small last minute northward shift could actually help put the Portland area in the sweet spot.

 

I think it ends up around Coos Bay to Reedsport. Somewhere between Cape Blanco and Florence. I'm not buying the runs that have it down around Brookings/GB.

[Jesse]

OMG! Maybe the next ice age has begun. The GFS is going places I simply can't believe after nearly a month of endless cold already. It shows little doubt the cold is going to win the battle next week. The latest FV3 has thicknesses dropping to 513 over SEA now. Looks like the main chances for snow in SEA will be tomorrow morning and maybe later next week.

I don’t even know how to process the last month. It’s like someone flipped a switch. And it keeps getting prolonged.

[snow_wizard]

Getting to the point on some of the models where the requisite small last minute northward shift could actually help put the Portland area in the sweet spot.

 

Who would have thought that would be the case 24 hours ago?  My mind is blown on this whole thing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coos Bay is the best spot for the whole valley. South of there amounts in the metro start to drop, north of that amounts in the EUG area drop.

[HighlandExperience]

I think it ends up around Coos Bay to Reedsport. Somewhere between Cape Blanco and Florence. I'm not buying the runs that have it down around Brookings/GB.

Landing in Newport would be good

[ShawniganLake]

I figured it was showing evaporative cooling in the heavier shower around 3 or 4 pm.

Could be. I’d be shocked if you guys saw accumulating snow this afternoon

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another cold trough approaching at the end of the run.

 

[wxmet]

UKMET 12z shows the deform precip extending pretty far north of the surface low. Seattle would be in on the action and places further north.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t even know how to process the last month. It’s like someone flipped a switch. And it keeps getting prolonged.

 

 

I feel the same... hard to even figure it out.    The most surreal part is the duration and not any single event.  

[Jesse]

Who would have thought that would be the case 24 hours ago? My mind is blown on this whole thing.

That’s why I love southerly tracks, even if it means my area gets screwed. It means that COLD WINS. And that is always the most important thing.

[Esquimalt]

Could be. I’d be shocked if you guys saw accumulating snow this afternoon

GFS remains adamant though, and the NAM joined the party this morning. Are you still going with 2 inches here?

[HighlandExperience]

UKMET 12z shows the deform precip extending pretty far north of the surface low. Seattle would be in on the action and places further north.

Yea I’m hoping this will be reflected in the 12z euro.

[snow_wizard]

I don’t even know how to process the last month. It’s like someone flipped a switch. And it keeps getting prolonged.

 

The cold looks as entrenched as it was in 1955.  Not many years it just keeps going on and on.  And with warmish ENSO yet.  I'm not sure what is running the show at this point.  It stays cold no matter where the MJO is.  My only disappointment is I had hoped to see one more significant snow event in late Feb to round out the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 34, probably end up with a high around 38 today. Chilly airmass, but partly cloudy skies probably most of the day.

[ShawniganLake]

Must be pretty localized.

Yea. Most places probably saw rain as surface temps were above freezing

[Jesse]

I feel the same... hard to even figure it out. The most surreal part is the duration and not any single event.

It’s been a combination of both. There has been some extremely impressive stand alone events mixed in as well throughout the west and upper Midwest.