SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Looks like maybe a Waldport to Newport landfall on the 06z EURO which is maybe slightly south of the 00z, but not by much. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 12z NAM is about 50 miles south again. We probably don't want to see this trend any further south for PDX. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Looks like maybe a Waldport to Newport landfall on the 06z EURO which is maybe slightly south of the 00z, but not by much. I could see this happening this seems pretty realistic Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Looks like maybe a Waldport to Newport landfall on the 06z EURO which is maybe slightly south of the 00z, but not by much. Yes please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Colder air working into the lower Columbia Basin from the north now. Down to 15 at Pasco, it was 40 there at 10pm. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 NAM is still slightly south of the 06z run, but the precip shield is about 50-60 miles further north...Outstanding news. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I honestly think this is the most likely outcome, 1-3 inches Seattle south 4-6 inches from Olympia to chehalis, and big blast in Portland seems pretty realistic, but euro is farther north than other models so we will see Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 NAM has the low 2mb stronger and about 40 miles south of the 06z coming in at Gold Beach. Precip shield is much more expansive with moderate snow reaching at least south metro and maybe even Vancouver. Nexus of heavy snow look like Albany-Woodburn. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Might just be me, but it seemed like the precip made it further north on the euro than the run last night, I might be mistaken thoughEDIT: precip does make it a little farther north but just barely the low is practically in the same place as last run Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Looks like maybe a Waldport to Newport landfall on the 06z EURO which is maybe slightly south of the 00z, but not by much. Give it to me baby! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Still can’t believe this is all still as uncertain as it is, hoping for the best possible outcome for everyone Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Mark Nelson will chime in today with his wise words. Currently 34*Low of 33*Dew point of 29* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Whether you are hoping for a northern or southern track, you probably can feel comfortable or uncomfortable knowing that not a single model this month was able to pin down landfall of a low four or even three days out.Yeah but we’re about 1-2 days out now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 We can watch it in real time now. I’m hoping for a landfall at about Gold Beach. That’ll put everyone in Oregon in the sweet spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 To be honest many people in Oregon or Washington all think the low is going to go their way but the truth is nobody knows anything yet, could land anywhere still, We’ve all seen these events bust before don’t let your hopes get too high or too low just be prepared for anything Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Icon has fully caved 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 The 12Z RGEM out to Monday at 4am trended more South compared to the 06Z. The upcoming 12Z GEM will be taking on a more Southern route compared to it's run last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 The 12Z RGEM out to Monday at 4am trended more South compared to the 06Z. The upcoming 12Z GEM will be taking on a more Southern route compared to it's run last night. It also has Portland changing over to snow tomorrow morning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 ICON has sub-516 thickness for Seattle on Thursday morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 It also has Portland changing over to snow tomorrow morning RGEM is headed for Gold Beach/Cape Blanco. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Gfs is having some problems on tropical tidbits this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 GFS says Cape Blanco. Pretty much exactly the same as 06z run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Well I think it is getting pretty safe to say that it isn’t going to go north of Portland. Nice. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 12z looks a tad more south than the 06z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 GFS says ** Portland. Light accumulations north of Wilsonville. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 It also has Portland changing over to snow tomorrow morningYeah, looks good for us since we live on hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Glad that things are looking better for Portland happy to see y’all get in on this winter finally! Many of you guys been freaking out the past couple days I told you guys to just wait and see I think north end of precip is under done and areas south of Seattle could see some light snow maybe 1-3 inches (fine with none or some here) but this looks like a Portland event finally, again everything could totally change by tonight but it looks promising Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Gem gives Portland 12-18 inches of snow lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Model overload right now. Looks good for EUG to PDX. I'd be most worried if I was EUG because they are on the southern tip. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 516 thickness at PDX on February 28th. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Yeah... I was completely wrong with the northward shift prediction. I am genuinely surprised to see a last minute trend south and also that it will likely stay cold all week. And I am still cheering hard for everyone in Oregon! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Yeah... I was completely wrong with the northward shift prediction. I am genuinely surprised to see a last minute trend south and also that it will likely stay cold all week. And I am still cheering hard for everyone in Oregon!Watch the Euro go north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Having a hard time processing that this could actually happen. It doesn't seem possible. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Some light freezing rain here this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Nice model runs for PDX. Models are having trouble with how far to sink the trough off the southern B.C. coast. A slight shift north or south makes all the difference that’s why the EPS was in two camps at 00z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Having a hard time processing that this could actually happen. It doesn't seem possible.How does this look for your place? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Nice model runs for PDX. Models are having trouble with how far to sink the trough off the southern B.C. coast. A slight shift north or south makes all the difference that’s why the EPS was in two camps at 00z.When does most of that snow fall in King County on the 6z euro? If we could get on the northern edge of the precip I’d be happy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Having a hard time processing that this could actually happen. It doesn't seem possible.Everytime I see something like this I think back to superbowl 17 and the major bust that ensued, even right as we headed into it. I hope we can make up for that this time around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 516 thickness at PDX on February 28th. I don’t ever remember seeing a cutoff 516 thickness over the PNW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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