February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[GHweatherChris]

Way too much time left!

[MossMan]

Idaho teen makes $35k in 4 days after bringing truck with snow plow to Seattle area.

 

My God... 12+ inches is possible in the Seattle area on Monday. I need to find myself a plow real fast!

 

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/idaho-teen-says-he-made-35k-in-4-days-plowing-seattle/923811726

Seattle looks to get nothing. You would need to take your plow to Portland or south!

[Perturbed Member]

Don’t be lax yet...

 

Though the trends are good. I am cautiously optimistic.

 

Yeah I think it needs another 24 hours. 

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty decent 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Possible brief snow to rain event here but would be ok.

[bainbridgekid]

06z ICON looks a notch further south vs. 00z through Sunday AM.

 

#Extrapolate

Pretty similar to the 00z at hour 54.

 

The last model hanging onto the more Northern track, but it has come back toward the pack considerably today.

 

[bainbridgekid]

6z ICON a small notch South of the 0z. Really the only model showing a landfall North of the Central Oregon Coast now.

 

[HighlandExperience]

It is quite odd for everything to take a quick southern trend right before the event as supposed to the normal northern turn. Highly unusual.

 

Although this has been a highly unusual month (at least for parts of Western WA) so it might be fitting.

I would not be surprised to see a jump north on the 12z run of the euro.

[Cloud]

Whether you are hoping for a northern or southern track, you probably can feel comfortable or uncomfortable knowing that not a single model this month was able to pin down landfall of a low four or even three days out.

True, in which case we look for trends.. current trend right now is south, before that it was north. The only problem is that a 40-50 miles shift will make a huge difference and the models are having a hell of a time trying to figure this out. The cone of uncertainty is HUGE 3-4 days out and the models are trying to project into that cone. My guess is we will see more flip flopping for the models until the last minute.

[Requiem]

True, in which case we look for trends.. current trend right now is south, before that it was north. The only problem is that a 40-50 miles shift will make a huge difference and the models are having a hell of a time trying to figure this out. The cone of uncertainty is HUGE 3-4 days out and the models are trying to project into that cone. My guess is we will see more flip flopping for the models until the last minute.

But I’m still feeling better about this than last week’s storm. Hope is still alive for PDX.

[Perturbed Member]

True, in which case we look for trends.. current trend right now is south, before that it was north. The only problem is that a 40-50 miles shift will make a huge difference and the models are having a hell of a time trying to figure this out. The cone of uncertainty is HUGE 3-4 days out and the models are trying to project into that cone. My guess is we will see more flip flopping for the models until the last minute.

 

Yeah still plenty of time for things to change but really only the models that went way north really trended south by a big margin. The GFS/FV3 have been far more consistent than the Euro, ICON and NAM. The GFS even has near perfect ensemble support too. The GEM actually trended north tonight but it is more or less coming into convergence with the other models that shifted south. Curious to see if the GFS eventually will start to shift a bit north or if it will stick to its far south landfall location.

[Cloud]

But I’m still feeling better about this than last week’s storm. Hope is still alive for PDX.

PDX is very much alive. The question now is whether it’s too far south to keep central sound out of it or shift north to include this area. Current projection appears to be Coos Bay which would exclude Central Sound. Slight north to around Newport gets everyone in the action. A Lincoln City landfall would be bad for PDX, but it’s still a possibility. This is what the models are trying to pinpoint.

[Perturbed Member]

06z ICON is a further improvement on the snow map as expected

[bainbridgekid]

6z GFS looks to be heading for the South Central Oregon Coast. Similar track to the 0z.

 

[Requiem]

6z GFS looks to be heading for the South Central Oregon Coast. Similar track to the 0z.

 

Like the consistency.

[Perturbed Member]

06z GFS holding absolutely firm

 

[Requiem]

Actually landfalls a smidgen south. By smidgen I mean that it is so small it barely makes a difference. A bit stronger, too.

[Cloud]

Yeah still plenty of time for things to change but really only the models that went way north really trended south by a big margin. The GFS/FV3 have been far more consistent than the Euro, ICON and NAM. The GFS even has near perfect ensemble support too. The GEM actually trended north tonight but it is more or less coming into convergence with the other models that shifted south. Curious to see if the GFS eventually will start to shift a bit north or if it will stick to its far south landfall location.

At this point, I think it’s a pretty good chance PDX will get snow and a lot of it. The Euro threw a wrench into the whole thing but it looked it caved tonight. My main interest in monitoring this system now is whether it shifts slight north to include central sound. The fact that the Euro did show a shift north prior to tonight’s run should be of interest.

[Cloud]

Actually landfalls a smidgen south. By smidgen I mean that it is so small it barely makes a difference. A bit stronger, too.

Absolutely perfect for PDX. This will keep the cold well in place.

[Perturbed Member]

At this point, I think it’s a pretty good chance PDX will get snow and a lot of it. The Euro threw a wrench into the whole thing but it looked it caved tonight. My main interest in monitoring this system now is whether it shifts slight north to include central sound. The fact that the Euro did show a shift north prior to tonight’s run should be of interest.

 

I think a landfall of Lincoln city or even as far north as Tillamook is probably still in the cards. I actually think PDX would get a lot of snow with the low going into Lincoln city or north of it but you are playing with fire. High risk high reward track. You would also completely screw over the rest of the valley here south of PDX. I think the precip shield will extend further north than most models are showing. Probably far enough to get Olympia involved but anything north of that is looking less likely at the moment IMO.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cannon beach.

[Perturbed Member]

The FV3 trended south. It is so far south now that PDX gets nothing. 

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

PDX is on the very northern edge even on the GFS now

 

[Requiem]

The FV3 trended south. It is so far south now that PDX gets nothing.

 

 

I’d rather the FV3 trend south than north at this point to compensate for the EURO and the ICON. We’re just out of reach to the north in this scenario (reminds me oncs again a lot of 2/6/14).

[Cloud]

I think a landfall of Lincoln city or even as far north as Tillamook is probably still in the cards. I actually think PDX would get a lot of snow with the low going into Lincoln city or north of it but you are playing with fire. High risk high reward track. You would also completely screw over the rest of the valley here south of PDX. I think the precip shield will extend further north than most models are showing. Probably far enough to get Olympia involved but anything north of that is looking less likely at the moment IMO.

I think it would be an ice storm for PDX if it goes to Lincoln City. I don’t think you want it to go to Lincoln City. You’re exactly correct about playing with fire in this case.

[Cloud]

PDX is on the very northern edge even on the GFS now

 

At this rate it will be a N. California landfall. 3-4 days out and the landfall cone is massive. Lol

[Requiem]

At this rate it will be a N. California landfall. 3-4 days out and the landfall cone is massive. Lol

Still think it’ll be somewhere on the OR coast. To compensate for the EURO and ICON’s north trend and the GFS’s south trend. NAM looks great.

[Cloud]

I’d rather the FV3 trend south than north at this point to compensate for the EURO and the ICON. We’re just out of reach to the north in this scenario (reminds me oncs again a lot of 2/6/14).

Why is that? Enough of the sounders getting snow? Lol.

It’s kinda like “Hey, if I can’t get it, I don’t want those guys to get it too.”

[Cloud]

Still think it’ll be somewhere on the OR coast. To compensate for the EURO and ICON’s north trend and the GFS’s south trend. NAM looks great.

I’ll wait for Sunday to see, should have a lot more confidence then. If I were to guess, you’d be correct.

[Perturbed Member]

Why is that? Enough of the sounders getting snow? Lol.

It’s kinda like “Hey, if I can’t get it, I don’t want those guys to get it too.”

 

No, it is just safer to be a bit too far north than to be a bit too far south. If the low goes north of you, it is pretty much game over. If you appear to be a bit north, you will be cold at least and there is usually precip further north than modeled so you end up getting something. Also if things trend north last second (which seems to happen often) you are still ok. You don't want to be on the southern edge right as you go into these events. It almost always seems to end badly. PDX has been screwed many times that way.

[MossMan]

San Francisco.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here we go.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Portland OR 443 AM PST Sat Feb 23 2019 443 AM PST Sat Feb 23 2019

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches possible, with 3 to 8 inches of snow possible near the Coast Range. It is also possible some locations along the coast and in the Willamette Valley may receive accumulations of less than 2 inches.

 

* WHERE...Greater Portland and Vancouver metro area, Central Willamette Valley including Salem, North Oregon Coast and Coast Range.

 

* WHEN...Most likely period of snow will be Monday morning. Snow is expected to change to rain by Monday evening, though a few pockets of freezing rain will be possible near the Columbia Gorge and in some Coast Range valleys.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. Impacts appear less likely for the Monday evening commute at this time. Be sure to carry chains and a winter emergency kit if you must travel Monday, and be prepared for long delays.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. && $$

[ShawniganLake]

Jeezus, hope it doesn’t miss Portland to the south.

[Jbolin]

Jeezus, hope it doesn’t miss Portland to the south.

It's either going to be an Ilwaco landfall

or

Coos Bay landfall

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up a total of 3.5" of snow overnight. An inch since midnight. A little over 10" depth now. Low made it down to 32. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Wsw kiss of death.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z NAM slams the whole WV. Landfall slightly south of Coos Bay.

 

ICON landfall is about Lincoln City, slightly south of the 00z.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wsw kiss of death.

 

NWS literally makes no sense. Their zones forecasts do no match their watches and warnings in any way. Currently they have a Warning for tonight above 1500' for the N. Cascade Foothills and a watch for tomorrow night into Monday. However, they adjusted their zone forecasts warmer and with less snow, and show 2000-2500' snow levels now during that time. Not sure how its going to snow in the valley with 2500' now levels...

 

I will give them credit on the WWA last night, it verified and I was skeptical. Though it was another instance where the zone forecast was much warmer and had higher snow levels predicted than the WWA was based off of.

 

Makes me wonder if there is little to any human component to the zone forecasts...

[FroYoBro]

Can anyone post the 06z Euro?

 

NAM looks good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS believes the low will landfall at Lincoln City.