February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Cloud]

easy, modeled snowfall doesn’t count unless it actually falls

Reallt depends on the ratio. This stuff appears to be wet, so maybe a 5:1 ratio which can add up fast.

[TT-SEA]

That snow in Portland might survive for awhile.     A shift east will the ULL means there is cold air around even on Thursday.

 

[Perturbed Member]

We probably need until tomorrow night before we can call this thing a lock but looking pretty good now. The trend is undeniably south. Every single model has trended south except for the GEM which was already fairly far south. 

[Requiem]

I still have a feeling things will track further north...more often than not that ends up being the final outcome.

Again, I think this may be a 2/6/14 scenario. High totals, but a low landfall closer to Tillamook.

[Cloud]

We probably need until tomorrow night before we can call this thing a lock but looking pretty good now. The trend is undeniably south. Every single model has trended south except for the GEM which was already fairly far south.

It’s like an election in FL. Too D**n close to call.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low temps never get below 31 or so at SLE or PDX on the EURO. Going to be WET snow if it verifies.

[TT-SEA]

How much total snow in King County through Wednesday?

 

A few minor snow events added up... but will likely melt off in between each one.

 

[Christensen87]

Euro caved to GFS for the cold staying throughout the week.

[TT-SEA]

Low temps never get below 31 or so at SLE or PDX on the EURO. Going to be WET snow if it verifies.

 

 

That is not good.  

[Perturbed Member]

That snow in Portland might survive for awhile.     A shift east will the ULL means there is cold air around even on Thursday.

 

 

Just as President GFS has foreseen. 

[TT-SEA]

Euro caved to GFS for the cold staying throughout the week.

 

 

 A 200 mile difference in the position of that ULL makes a big difference in temps.

 

[HighlandExperience]

That is not good.

I still think this has huge bust potential for PDX. Still 48 hours away with marginal temps.

[Cloud]

Low temps never get below 31 or so at SLE or PDX on the EURO. Going to be WET snow if it verifies.

Yup. Similar to the Feb 11 event here when SEA gets 6.1” You’re gonna rely heavily on the heavy precip to pull the snow level down and have a party with the heavy wet snow. As I said, my guess is a 5:1 ratio.

[TT-SEA]

Highs on Thursday with what appears to be a lots of convective showers and sun breaks.

 

[Requiem]

I still think this has huge bust potential for PDX. Still 48 hours away with marginal temps.

Yes. But we do have the cold and howling east wind on our side, which is a plus.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My current thinking. EURO will creep south little by little right up to the event while the GFS/FV3/UKMET will creep north. They'll meet somewhere in the middle with a slight lean northwards as precipitation always seems to make up further North. PDX Metro is looking good at the momemt.

[Timmy]

Yup. Similar to the Feb 11 event here when SEA gets 6.1” You’re gonna rely heavily on the heavy precip to pull the snow level down and have a party with the heavy wet snow. As I said, my guess is a 5:1 ratio.

the gorge will be a big factor. Low is approaching from the sw instead of nw

[GHweatherChris]

Outliers!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

At 48hrs all models have the low very close and it's that next 24hrs where Everything changes.

[Perturbed Member]

I still think this has huge bust potential for PDX. Still 48 hours away with marginal temps.

 

As long as the low is south of us, the temps won't be an issue. The gorge and east winds will take care of that. Every single model agrees on that. Cold air will reinforce in the Columbia basin even before the arrival of the low. The only tricky thing is making sure the low doesn't go north of us. Some of the models are still too close for comfort. 

 

[Blizzard777]

Total snow just on Monday through 4 p.m.

 

Calling Mom down in Portland to go get bread and milk NOW before the panic sets in!

[TT-SEA]

Yes. But we do have the cold and howling east wind on our side, which is a plus.

 

 

Surface winds on Monday during main part of snow event...

 

 

[Cloud]

the gorge will be a big factor. Low is approaching from the sw instead of nw

Relying on the gorge is gonna be dangerous this late in the season. The bust potential is there which is why I think a lot of the models are having problems figuring this system out.

 

We’ve had model runs that include rain, ZR, and snow for PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see Highland Experience is going with the cold rain theory...Gorge and Basin temps ARE pretty mild right now. We'll see what they do in the next 24-48 hours.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... ECMWF caved completely.     Looks like another snow event could be brewing in Oregon that day.

 

[jakeinthevalley]

North/South...South/North

 

Where shall we draw the new Mason-Dixon Line?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Calling Mom down in Portland to go get bread and milk NOW before the panic sets in!

Don't forget to call your daughter too!

[TT-SEA]

Next Saturday...

 

 

[Cloud]

Yeah... ECMWF caved completely. Looks like another snow event could be brewing in Oregon that day.

 

GFS may be right after all. Don’t ever recall the GFS calls for a warm-up at this time frame.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2" of snow this evening. Up to the same amount Flagstaff got in 1 day yesterday...

[GHweatherChris]

This thing is going north as the end result, bank it!!

[FroYoBro]

That is not good.

Lol, what did you expect? Most of it happens during the day and it is getting close to March.

[TT-SEA]

2" of snow this evening. Up to the same amount Flagstaff got in 1 day yesterday...

 

Surprised to see it warming up here all evening... from 31 at 4 p.m. and snowing pretty good to 35 now and lots of dripping.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

As long as the low is south of us, the temps won't be an issue. The gorge and east winds will take care of that. Every single model agrees on that. Cold air will reinforce in the Columbia basin even before the arrival of the low. The only tricky thing is making sure the low doesn't go north of us. Some of the models are still too close for comfort.

 

Yeah, not to mention the low that tracks through OR during the day Sunday will add more fresh snow to an already solid snowpack in the Columbia River Basin ahead of the system coming from the SW. Add healthy precipitation rates and PDX will be fine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surprised to see it warming up here all evening... from 31 at 4 p.m. and snowing pretty good to 35 now and lots of dripping.  

 

I would imagine precip rate had a lot to do with it. I'm actually surprised its been snowing as much as it has with a very marginal airmass right now. 

[Blizzard777]

Don't forget to call your daughter too!

She buys Gluten free bread and doesn’t do dairy...lol

[Frontal Snowsquall]

She buys Gluten free bread and doesn’t do dairy...lol

She's health conscious, that's great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lol, what did you expect? Most of it happens during the day and it is getting close to March.

 

If the precip is moderate to heavy it will still accumulate even with temps above freezing. I had 6.5" last Saturday and it pretty much all fell during the day and with temps 33-35. Even accumulated on the roads.

[TT-SEA]

If the precip is moderate to heavy it will still accumulate even with temps above freezing. I had 6.5" last Saturday and it pretty much all fell during the day and with temps 33-35. Even accumulated on the roads.

 

 

Phil says that is impossible and only happens in our "magical" climate where an entire snowstorm can occur when its above freezing and then snow can miraculously stick around even when its 40 degrees in a dry air mass.    I am not sure if its magic... but it happens all the time here.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today was the 13th day with measurable snowfall this month. Ties March 2012 for most days in a month with snowfall since I've lived here. At midnight it will be 21 consecutive days with snow cover.