2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[jcwxguy]

Euro looks southeast of 12, and 18z run at hour 24 with the snow shield

[OmahaSnowFan]

Saw this is Omaha’s first blizzard warning since December ‘12. Crazy weather right now

[jcwxguy]

Euro is se. Talk about riding the line for Douglas and shatpy county

[jcwxguy]

Nam/GFS vs euro

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow, definitely not something I want to see from the european model at the 12th hour lol. Thankfully the HRRR/RAP models are much more north of that

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Grizzcoat]

euro will win out-- like it always does with cutters...

[snowstorm83]

I'll never forget when the Euro gave Lincoln 11" the night before the 1/22/18 blizzard. I'd rather be on the northern end than the southern end. 

[Grizzcoat]

Anyone wanna bet agst the Euro? Straight $$? 

 

I'll never forget when the Euro gave Lincoln 11" the night before the 1/22/18 blizzard. I'd rather be on the northern end than the southern end. 

Not with dry air it's seeing. As mentioned in many AFD this previous afternoon 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Anyone wanna bet agst the Euro? Straight $$? 

 

Not with dry air it's seeing. As mentioned in many AFD this previous afternoon 

Yeah, because I'm sure you want it too happen, so its closer to you! haha. 

[Grizzcoat]

Not really- I'am in MN. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not really- I'am in MN. 

Which part?

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, because I'm sure you want it too happen, so its closer to you! haha.

I have no skin in this, but it’s hard to see the Euro catching onto a late last minute shift and being wrong. I mean, it can happen, but I wouldn’t bet against it, that’s for sure.

[Stormhunter87]

The euro moves to the nam's old spot and GFS caves not buying it yet.

[gabel23]

Well if the Euro wins out then you need to shift the blizzard warning further from me. Can the GFS catch one win this year? Hard to bet against the Euro I hate to say it.

[Grizzcoat]

CAA drives Blizzards much more than WAA. Simple fact that cold air displaces warm air. Euro has seen this all along with very little wavering. RAP/HRRR/ NAM/RDPS vs. Euro? at this range - id' take the Euro. Too rock solid for the past 12 runs or so. I wish the best for everyone. Honestly- but the Euro IS the King for a reason and has been rock solid the past several storms. 

[Grizzcoat]

Which part?

 

Twin Cities - New Brighton .

[jcwxguy]

Makes 2 runs in a row for euro shifting southeast. 18z and now 00z. Can look at 96z models when they come out but it will be now casting time by then really and following the radar trends

[Craig-OmahaWX]

CAA drives Blizzards much more than WAA. Simple fact that cold air displaces warm air. Euro has seen this all along with very little wavering. RAP/HRRR/ NAM/RDPS vs. Euro? at this range - id' take the Euro. Too rock solid for the past 12 runs or so. I wish the best for everyone. Honestly- but the Euro IS the King for a reason and has been rock solid the past several storms. 

No, its not been this far south all week. this was a significant shift south last minute. For 5days now its had the axis from Lincoln to Omaha now its Falls City. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I have no skin in this, but it’s hard to see the Euro catching onto a late last minute shift and being wrong. I mean, it can happen, but I wouldn’t bet against it, that’s for sure.

Yeah, but you gave nothing to support your reason behind this. Have you compared models and looked at radar? 

[jcwxguy]

Will be interesting to see if the operational euro lines up with it's ensembles when they come out

[ToastedRavs]

Euro has been the most consistent of all the models since 3 or 4 days ago. Minor adjustments here and there but certainly the most consistent. EVERYONE has biases. Us posters, TV mets, NWS mets....EVERYONE. And knowing the luck of this forum....it'll be no man's land that gets the most. Say from Falls city to Creston to Charles city Iowa. My apologies if someone is from there on here, but I don't think they are. LIVE ON KING EURO! (Biased, yes...but consistent AF)

[Grizzcoat]

No, its not been this far south all week. this was a significant shift south last minute. For 5days now its had the axis from Lincoln to Omaha now its Falls City. 

Not this far S- but the furthest S and E of many other model runs. For it to go EVEN further SE- well, you be the judge. 

[ToastedRavs]

No, its not been this far south all week. this was a significant shift south last minute. For 5days now its had the axis from Lincoln to Omaha now its Falls City.

On phone and not fancy enough to post my old post or someone's from like Tuesday...but the Euro has been over or near DSM all week and even SE of it so this not a last minute, 12th hour shift as you claim. Yikes

[Craig-OmahaWX]

It's good to know the HRRR still is pounding I-80. 

 

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, but you gave nothing to support your reason behind this. Have you compared models and looked at radar?

My reasoning is past history and seeing how things usually work. I could be wrong, and that’s fine. Not gonna impact me.

[ToastedRavs]

That HRRR did really well (sarcasm emoji) with the Tuesday system...giving us 8...we got 3. Ride the HRRR....it and the GFS are your biases.

[jcwxguy]

Until the rap or hrrr start showing that shift, I'm not going to worry too much about it. If the 06z runs show it then I would be worried. The hrrr does generally have a north bias past hour 15 (least that's what I've seen before)

[Craig-OmahaWX]

That HRRR did really well (sarcasm emoji) with the Tuesday system...giving us 8...we got 3. Ride the HRRR....it and the GFS are your biases.

Hey, I'm not saying its perfect, but too have every short range and high res model going against one not too mention the GFS ensembles further north going against one model...I'd said I'd believe the rest of them over ONE model. And its no bias because the majority rules right?

[Grizzcoat]

When you ride the RAP/HRRR past 10 hours- your entering NAM 84 HR territory; especially with a system this dynamic. Don't do it- been burned many times. Trust the KING and get some sleep. 

[Stormhunter87]

If the wpc ensembles change, which are based heavily on euro, the I'll be worried.

[East Dubzz]

Can hear something hitting the window... assume it has to be some heavier freezing rain?

[East Dubzz]

I’m getting nothing but rain tomorrow, but I’m still fascinated to see how this works out.

[Grizzcoat]

Expanded view of the EURO- 

[ToastedRavs]

New TAF for KDSM calls for switch over to all snow 22z to 01z. Earlier than their grid forecast. Good signs, good signs.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

HRRR came back north a tad and got stronger. Gives me locally 16 inches LOL.

 

[DSM WeatherNut]

 

and got stronger. Gives me locally 16 inches LOL.

 HRRR came back north a tad

 

My half arse horrible obsersevation based on radar trends...cold pool to the the northwest.

[Minny_Weather]

Well definitely not something I wanted to see on Euro. At least all the other models are still good for here, but with their track record I'd rather have Euro on my side than all the rest of the models.

[Minny_Weather]

Side note, those totals on Euro are more in line with what I'm thinking will happen. The 12"+ amounts previously posted are garbage and they have been from the start.

[jcwxguy]

Hrrr, rap, nam, GFS all showing 12+" here.

 

New point click forecast

 

Saturday

Freezing rain and sleet likely before 1pm, then snow and sleet between 1pm and 2pm, then snow after 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 5pm. High near 32. Breezy, with a light northeast wind becoming north northwest 16 to 21 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow, mainly before 10pm. Patchy blowing snow. Low around 16. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday