2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[jcwxguy]

Still a large spread for omaha on sref, but looks good for Lincoln and Fremont, ne

[jcwxguy]

06z nam and gfs

[jcwxguy]

And of course the fv3

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like OAX is riding the NAM. Huh.

[Minny_Weather]

Temps ever so slightly above freezing now, which is breaking up the ice previously accumulated. That's a good thing. 32.4*F.

[jcwxguy]

Long but good afd from Oax

000

FXUS63 KOAX 231016

AFDOAX

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

416 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

 

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)

Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

 

...Will Omaha Break Their December-February Snowfall Record

Saturday???...

 

Forecast concerns through tonight will continue to be the

the mixed precipitation...the location of the heavy wet

snow...and strong wind gusts that promote blizzard/whiteout/near

whiteout conditions.

 

The latest surface map has the surface low around 1000MB in

southeast Colorado. Locally, the freezing line is around Omaha to

north of Lincoln. Rain continues to push across the southeast

portion of the forecast area and the more substantial freezing

rain lifted northeast with a leading shortwave. Most of the liquid

equivalent reports of the freezing rain was between 0.04 and

0.15". There is a lull across northeast and parts of east central

Nebraska with fog....and patchy freezing drizzle before the third

round of precipitation begins.

 

Snow has been falling in the Denver area since Friday afternoon with

this system and through midnight they had 6.8 inches of snow.

This will be the system heading our way over the next 12hrs.

 

Water vapor satellite imagery/heights and lightning show we had

some lightning near Clarinda, IA around 1am with lightning still

in northern Missouri at 330am. Lighting was also noted on the

northeast side of the closed h5 low pressure area across the

Oklahoma Panhandle. This next area of negative lifted index values

does rotate into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa this

afternoon around 21Z, when we expect some of our peak snowfall

rates.

 

Converging solutions...Trend analysis since Wed shows that the NAM

has steadily shifted its band of heavy snow from northeast Kansas

and northwest Missouri toward the I80 corridor and broadening the 6

inch area/increasing the max amounts to 12 to 15 inches. The GFS has

steadily shifted its band of heavy snow from northeast Nebraska and

northwest Iowa farther southeast toward the I80 corridor and is

fairly close in placement with the NAM/12ZEC/GFS FV3/Canadian and

has also a broad area of 6+ inches. These solutions limit the

snow at Norfolk and at Falls City. The new EC is now at least a

county or two farther south limiting Omaha to 1 to 3 inches of

snow with the 6+ area more around BIE to RDK and Clarinda. The 06Z

runs of the NAM/GFS are still consistent with our snow total

forecast going out with this package.

 

Through 00Z, there is good model agreement the closed h5 low over

the Texas Panhandle will track northeast to northwest Missouri by

00Z, quickly moving across Iowa by 06Z. The surface low takes a

similar track deepening to around 995mb in northeast KS at 21Z and

992mb in eastern Iowa. Surface winds begin to strengthen around

16Z with 40kt gusts increasing around 21Z. We see strong support

at the upper level jet level, the mid levels, and the low levels

as the snow (heavy at times with convective elements) overspreads

the area through 00Z. There is a pronounced trowel which will

work to enhance lift/rates and frontogenesis. CSI is present and

upright convection is not too far away. Peak snowfall rates will

range from 1 to 3 inches per hour. The warm temperatures in the

southeast part of the forecast will keep the precipitation

liquid/wintry mix before switching to all snow by early evening.

 

Made adjustments to increase QPF with total QPF generally from .5

to 1.2". This translates to a band of heavy snow 6 to 10 inches 60

to 80 mile wide band along the I80 corridor. Some ice

amounts...generally .1" or less with the winter weather advisory

still in effect. Northwest of the blizzard warning, general snow

amounts of 1 to 4".

 

Omaha needs 7.5" and Lincoln needs 8.3" to break their all-time

December-February snowfall record and both have a chance! Our

snow climatology says on average, we measure snow around 20 days

of the year and we are already at 26 this year. Typically we get

6" of snow in one day once every 2 years. We did receive over 6

inches in 2 days already this years. If the forecast pans out...we

may break this record.

 

The winds will become an issue strengthening around 16 to 21Z

with wind gusts 35 to 45kts. The wind gusts continue overnight.

The freezing rain and the wet snow will work against true blizzard

conditions. With the falling snow should see 1/4 to 1/2mi and as

the event goes on the snow will be blowing and drifting

more...thus will leave the blizzard warning in place.

 

The combination of freezing rain...snow and the winds will lead to

dangerous travel conditions and increase the potential for power

outages through tonight.

 

The winds gradually decrease Sunday afternoon as surface high

pressure builds in, so any blowing and drifting should abate. Sunday

night through Monday, low level flow across the western Plains

increases from the south with a baroclinic zone and snow developing

from western Nebraska across South Dakota within a shortwave in the

flow. Northern Nebraska may catch part of this storm system before

it shoots eastwards into Iowa.

[Tom]

00z EPS did in fact trend a bit SE compared to 12z runs yesterday, esp across NE...the 6" mean expanded across IA and into SE MN.  IMO, OMA/LNK up to GoSaint's backyard are going to be near the epicenter of this system.  That was my feeling yesterday and I'm sticking with it.  Obviously, this system explodes as it tracks up towards the GL's which will make @Madtown/BrianJK pretty happy with their sledding endeavors.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm hoping the Euros shifting South is just a fluke. The fact that both OP and all the ensemble members flipped at the same time kinda makes it seem like it may have screwed up some data or something. Last thing I want is to get another 3" snowfall with highest totals to our South for the kajillionth time this year. If the airport was South of Lincoln, we'd already have record snowfall.

[gosaints]

I'm hoping the Euros shifting South is just a fluke. The fact that both OP and all the ensemble members flipped at the same time kinda makes it seem like it may have screwed up some data or something. Last thing I want is to get another 3" snowfall with highest totals to our South for the kajillionth time this year. If the airport was South of Lincoln, we'd already have record snowfall.

hrrr still sitting good for you guys as it the rap

[Minny_Weather]

It's foggy af right now. Fog tends to precede big snowfalls here so that's a good sign.

[Minny_Weather]

hrrr still sitting good for you guys as it the rap

Yeah OAX actually threw away Euro, which is big considering they're normally Euro-heavy.

[Bryan1117]

It's foggy af right now. Fog tends to precede big snowfalls here so that's a good sign.

Exactly my thoughts here as well. Fog before a big storm comes in seems to usually mean heavy snow is on its way. Time to start watching the radar anyway, things are still looking really good for Lincoln and Omaha.

[Tom]

When was the last time both LNK/OMA were in a Blizzard Warning???  Dec '09???

[Minny_Weather]

When was the last time both LNK/OMA were in a Blizzard Warning??? Dec '09???

I think so. Lincoln's had a couple since but I don't think Omaha has had any since.

[St Paul Storm]

I see MPX popped a watch for the metro. Not confident enough yet to upgrade to a WSW or Bliz Warning but an advisory won’t cut it given the expected conditions. Gonna be a nowcast later.

[Minny_Weather]

Radar looks sexy out in W KS/E CO.

[Tom]

Latest SREF's...

 

[gosaints]

Latest SREF's...

 

that map is spread right ??

[Minny_Weather]

that map is spread right ??

Looks like it. I'm not sure tho cuz SREF mean here is just under 8"

[St Paul Storm]

that map is spread right ??

Looks like it’s spread

[Tom]

06z Euro...I'm telling ya, GoSaints magnet is working...

[St Paul Storm]

Snowing hard right now. Looks like 1-2” down so far just eye balling it out the window.

[gosaints]

2 inches of bonus concrete overnight

[gosaints]

12z model runs and radar should then be coming into focus for the nebraska bunch

[Minny_Weather]

Yeahhhhhhh I'm really hoping Euro is off its rocker and not onto something.

[erburns18]

Game day . Let's hope everything works out

[erburns18]

Local met just now

[gosaints]

0z hrrr pounds Lincoln by 3pm

[gosaints]

Hrrr about a foot for you guys

[Money]

HRRR is a garbage model

[gosaints]

HRRR is a garbage model

true story. Has had some good storms lately but overall I agree especially with strong storms

[Madtown]

cant remember the last time I was this giddy for a storm!

[Clinton]

cant remember the last time I was this giddy for a storm!

Good luck I hope you guys max this baby out!  Wind advisory issued here this morning, this is going to be some kind of storm for you guys.

[gosaints]

Nam just buries omaha

[Tom]

RPM model lines up with the 12z HRRR...8-12"+ from OMA/LNK/Mason City/Rochester....N WI/U.P. buried....a fantastic Blizzard is shaping up for you guys!

[gosaints]

Gonna be interesting to see how long I ping here

[GDR]

Holy mounds of snow headed your way!

[St Paul Storm]

Already up to 27F here. Measured 1.5” with the first round.

 

Riding the line here, but fun storm regardless of what happens. Gosaints jack zone in progress.

[jcwxguy]

I'm actually starting to get excited

[GDR]

Omaha is going to get so much snow that the dome is going to collapse and they will rename the city Pound Town!!