Mountain West Discussion

[Phil]

Cool, that sounds like every other big metropolitan area. The majority of people in Colorado don't actually live in Denver or at Denver International Airport either.

 

No one thinks that an airport represents an entire region, that's obviously a pretty glaring logical fallacy. Airports are an objective, level barometer for comparing snow statistics at two cities. Baltimore's airport sucks at recording snow, Denver's airport sucks at recording snow, Portland's airport sucks at recording snow, Tallahassee's airport sucks at recording snow. Life's a b*tch and then you die. If you want to use other objective, official stations to showcase numeric trends, then you are more than welcome to present your case. But for the constraints of this discussion, I am utilizing the obvious stations at hand (DEN, DIA, BWI, IAD, DCA).

Why arbitrarily limit yourself to the constraints of airport observations when you have access to hundreds of aggregated snowfall measurements across both regions? That's outright stupid and illogical.

 

Again, the DC metro area isn't limited to the city of DC itself, as fewer than 5% of the population in the DC metro area actually live within DC. The vast majority live in in the aforementioned nearby cities, which sit between 5 miles and 15 miles from the beltway.

[Phil]

Actually a number of snowstorms have dropped 30-40" in the Denver metro since 1996.

If the numbers Jared posted earlier are correct (three storms dropping 30"+ over portions of the Denver metro since 1996, one dropping 40"+), then the Denver area has still observed fewer 30-40"+ storms than we have over the last 20 years.

 

The primary question in my mind is whether or not the last 20 years have been anomalously snowy here, hence have scewed some of the numbers in our favor temporarily, or whether we're just reverting back to a snowier period similar to what we observed in the 18th and 19th centuries. Only time will tell.

[BLI snowman]

Why arbitrarily limit yourself to the constraints of airport observations when you have access to hundreds of aggregated snowfall measurements across both regions? That's outright stupid and illogical.

 

Again, the DC metro area isn't limited to the city of DC itself, as fewer than 5% of the population in the DC metro area actually live within DC. The vast majority live in in the aforementioned nearby cities, which sit between 5 miles and 15 miles from the beltway.

 

As I said, you are free to bring other NCDC stations into the mix and do a side by side run through yourself if you feel so inclined.  I don't see it as arbitrary to use the official stations for the big cities. 

[BLI snowman]

If the numbers Jared posted earlier are correct (three storms dropping 30"+ over portions of the Denver metro since 1996, one dropping 40"+), then the Denver area has still observed fewer 30-40"+ storms than we have over the last 20 years.

 

The primary question in my mind is whether or not the last 20 years have been anomalously snowy here, hence have scewed some of the numbers in our favor temporarily, or whether we're just reverting back to a snowier period similar to what we observed in the 18th and 19th centuries. Only time will tell.

 

The only storms I see that dropped 30"'+ in parts of the DC Metro area are February 5-6, 2010 and January 22-23, 2016. I don't see any 30"+ totals from 2003, 2009, or even 1996 (PHL did hit 30" and parts of far NW VA did, but nothing near DC or Baltimore). So that is two storms versus three storms in the last 20 years.

[Phil]

As I said, you are free to bring other NCDC stations into the mix and do a side by side run through yourself if you feel so inclined. I don't see it as arbitrary to use the official stations for the big cities.

There's nothing wrong with including them, obviously, but solely relying on these airport observations as a regionally representative gauge will lead you to false and/or misleading conclusions.

[Phil]

The only storms I see that dropped 30"'+ in parts of the DC Metro area are February 5-6, 2010 and January 22-23, 2016. I don't see any 30"+ totals from 2003, 2009, or even 1996 (PHL did hit 30" and parts of far NW VA did, but nothing near DC or Baltimore). So that is two storms versus three storms in the last 20 years.

Those two were the biggest, yes. That said, the blizzard of 2003 dropped 31" in Germantown, 30" in Poolesville, and 32" in Derwood. The blizzard of 1996 dropped 33" in Herndon, 32" in Clarksburg, and 30" in Germantown. All locations either within Montgomery County/Fairfax County along the I95 corridor. Both of those storms dropped 40-50"+ in the hills, too, but that occurred outside the DC metro area.

[Jesse]

The swamplands of Maryland are clearly snowier than the Rocky Mountains.

 

Moving on.

[Phil]

The swamplands of Maryland are clearly snowier than the Rocky Mountains.

 

Moving on.

Swamplands, haha. Just to be clear, I never suggested our snow climatology was better than Denver's overall.

 

You should come by for a visit during our next snowmageddon. No self respecting weather hobbyist can go a lifetime without experiencing a true nor'easter.

[Front Ranger]

From all the evidence I've seen, it seems to me that Phil is correct that his area has been at least equal to this area the past 20 years for widespread 20"+ storms. 30"+ is hard to say, as there are more dedicated spotters, etc in his region than around here, and a few isolated reports don't truly reflect a storm.

 

However, we always have and always will kick Mid Atlantic butt for number of 12"+ storms. 

[BLI snowman]

Those two were the biggest, yes. That said, the blizzard of 2003 dropped 31" in Germantown, 30" in Poolesville, and 32" in Derwood. The blizzard of 1996 dropped 33" in Herndon, 32" in Clarksburg, and 30" in Germantown. All locations either within Montgomery County/Fairfax County along the I95 corridor. Both of those storms dropped 40-50"+ in the hills, too, but that occurred outside the DC metro area.

 

That would seem to bely these snow maps, which both show the DC/Baltimore region in the 15-29" range for those two storms. Clearly the vast, vast majority of folks were.

 

 

 

In any case we're arguing semantics, what one outlying spot does or another is pretty small potatoes. Clearly, the idea remains that the Denver area can see similar, bigtime 20"+ events as your area does

 

E.G. March 2003 produced 49" at Evergreen, a suburb only 15 miles west of Denver. Colorado owns the Mid Atlantic for 49"+ events.

 

 

 

The Denver area does not struggle to see major, major snowstorms. 

[BLI snowman]

There's nothing wrong with including them, obviously, but solely relying on these airport observations as a regionally representative gauge will lead you to false and/or misleading conclusions.

 

Like I said, if there are other long term stations you care to point to then I'm all ears. Or fingers, or whatever.

[Phil]

That would seem to bely these snow maps, which both show the DC/Baltimore region in the 15-29" range for those two storms. Clearly the vast, vast majority of folks were.

 

1996-snow-map-010410-595x405 (1).jpg

 

635889008475723925-2003-snow-map.jpg

 

In any case we're arguing semantics, what one outlying spot does or another is pretty small potatoes. Clearly, the idea remains that the Denver area can see similar, bigtime 20"+ events as your area does

 

E.G. March 2003 produced 49" at Evergreen, a suburb only 15 miles west of Denver. Colorado owns the Mid Atlantic for 49"+ events.

 

 

march-2003-snowfall-totals.gif

 

The Denver area does not struggle to see major, major snowstorms.

Those NESIS maps are on a much, much lower resolution than their higher resolution (regional) datasets. You'll almost always find 30"+ within the deformation bands of strong nor'easters in the lowlands here, and it's not uncommon for the ridgetop communities in the Appalachians to recieve 50-80"+ in major events (such as 1993 and 1996) because upslope snow usually continues behind large cyclones for several days on NW flow. The superstorm of 1993 delivered 80"+ in the ridges of WV/TN over 5 days as upslope cranked well after the primary storm had departed.

[Phil]

From all the evidence I've seen, it seems to me that Phil is correct that his area has been at least equal to this area the past 20 years for widespread 20"+ storms. 30"+ is hard to say, as there are more dedicated spotters, etc in his region than around here, and a few isolated reports don't truly reflect a storm.

 

However, we always have and always will kick Mid Atlantic butt for number of 12"+ storms.

You kick our butts at snowfall in general. The only reason we compete in terms of large snowfalls is due to our proximity to the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic moisture source. If not for that, we'd be more analogous to Oklahoma City or St Louis in the snowfall department.

[Phil]

Technically speaking, the snowmageddon twins shared an upper level vorticity maximum and jet steak, so this could be considered a single event from a physical standpoint (intermittent precipitation occurred in the 36hrs between the two main events).

 

These snowfall maps do not factor in the 15-20"+ that fell during the preceding 7 days. All in all, 4-5 feet fell over the DC metro within 3-4 days, while a whopping 6-7 feet fell over that 12 day period. This was the most impressive compilation of snow events since the mid/late 1700s. Places like Elkridge (just SW of Baltimore) surpassed 80" in that 12 day period.

 

[Black Hole]

Warm weather the next few days here, 63F today. Looks like some thunderstorms Monday night perhaps. 

[Front Ranger]

Nice, soaking rain and t-storms this evening. Feels like the warm season.

[Front Ranger]

Potential for something interesting later this week as a very slow moving system is forecast to pass just to our south, tapping into rich Gulf moisture. Anything from severe, to copious rain, to a very wet snowstorm is possible.

[Black Hole]

We will probably get quite a bit of rain on Thursday, and some rain/snow on Friday. 

[Front Ranger]

IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR WEATHER
FORECASTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND THEN STALLING NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AND THREATS
OF HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW ARE GOING TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS AT TIMES. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST CONCERNING
HOW COLD THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO EVENTUALLY GET. FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN THE COLDEST OF THE MODELS WHILE THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN WARMER. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS NOW
COOLER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
RUN ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW BETWEEN 2
AND 4 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS SHOULD SEE
MOST OF THIS FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. ON THE PLAINS...PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL BE INTERSPERSED WITH A MIXES OF RAIN OR SNOW OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON THE PLAINS.

CIPS ANALOG DATA FROM SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY SHOWS THAT THE
WEATHER PATTERN BEING FORECAST THIS WEEKEND HAS PRODUCED HEAVY
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING PAST STORMS. THIS TYPE
OF WEATHER PATTERN HAS ALSO GENERATED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN PAST EVENTS. ONCE AGAIN...
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS STORM OVER THE WEEKEND IS GOING
TO BE THE BIG WILD CARD. LATER MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE USED TO
DETERMINE ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

[Front Ranger]

Models have trended colder with this system. And stayed very, very wet (2-4" of liquid precip looking possible at this point from Friday-Sunday). It may be just warm enough to prevent a ton of accumulation in the metro, but the foothills are going to get absolutely buried.

[Black Hole]

How will you do with this storm? I don't know what your elevation is. 

[Front Ranger]

How will you do with this storm? I don't know what your elevation is. 

 

I'm at 5460', a little higher than most the metro area, and this is a rare case where it might matter. There's still a wide range of accumulations possible...Winter Storm Watch is saying 8-14" of very wet, heavy slop by Sunday morning right now. 

[Snowman5678]

Got a dusting of snow here in Salt Lake on the east bench.

Also had some thunderstorms when I was down in Arizona last Sunday.

[Front Ranger]

Really fascinating storm to watch unfold. Lots of severe storms and a couple tornadoes on the eastern plains this afternoon/evening. Off the charts moisture plume beginning to feed into the system from the south, as cold air deepens from the north...some places are going to see incredible totals with this thing.

[Black Hole]

Looks like temperatures are 32-33 across the Front Range with snow this morning. Any reports?

I had 1" yesterday at my house, probably the last snow of the season. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like temperatures are 32-33 across the Front Range with snow this morning. Any reports?

 

I had 1" yesterday at my house, probably the last snow of the season. 

 

4-5" of slop so far.

[Black Hole]

4-5" of slop so far.

How about now?

[Front Ranger]

How about now?

 

Really tough to know how much has fallen because it's so heavy and has compacted, but around 12-14" on the ground now. Still snowing, although it's really lightened up.

[BLI snowman]

43.5 inches in Evergreen. Not bad.

[Front Ranger]

43.5 inches in Evergreen. Not bad.

 

Yup, widespread 3-4' in the foothills SW of Denver.

 

Everything was just starting to turn green before this storm. Once all of this melts, it's going to look like Ireland around here.

[Phil]

Looks like estimated liquid equivalents are surpassing 3.7" in the hardest hit areas. That's up there with the all-time greats, at least by the standards of that metric. Some estimations are actually running higher/lower depending on the nature of the observations and methodological applications.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like estimated liquid equivalents are surpassing 3.7" in the hardest hit areas. That's up there with the all-time greats, at least by the standards of that metric. Some estimations are actually running higher/lower depending on the nature of the observations and methodological applications.

 

I would guess around 2-2.2" liquid here. DEN, as usual, is on the low end for the area with 1.39".

[Phil]

I would guess around 2-2.2" liquid here. DEN, as usual, is on the low end for the area with 1.39".

How does DEN measure liquid equivalent during a snowstorm? I know that airports can be systematically low biased with regards to liquid equivalents depending on the instrumentation and/or methodologies used for the conversion.

 

Here, it's DCA that consistently underreports the liquid equivalent.

[Front Ranger]

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 SSE PINECLIFFE 39.90N 105.39W
04/17/2016 M50.6 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

[Black Hole]

A few thunderstorms moved through the area today. Looks like wrap around moisture tonight so perhaps another decent soaking. I had .84" with the last storm.

[Front Ranger]

Cool/unsettled end to the month here. Highs in the 40s the final 3 days of the month will probably mean a below normal April overall.

[Black Hole]

Continued showery weather here too and coolish. 2.60" on the month with more rain tonight. 

[bainbridgekid]

Almost May and Denver's predicted to get 4-9 inches of snow over the next 36 hours.

 

I really would love to live there at some point to experience their extremes, even if just for one year.

[Front Ranger]

Almost May and Denver's predicted to get 4-9 inches of snow over the next 36 hours.

 

I really would love to live there at some point to experience their extremes, even if just for one year.

 

We've had accumulating snow on Mother's Day the past two years. You kinda get used to the unexpected.

 

Honestly, I'm not super excited just because this will be the second weekend in 3 weeks where I was hoping to get some outdoor stuff done and the weather won't allow it. But hey, snow is snow.

[Phil]

Yeah, I wouldn't enjoy snowfall in May. I can barely tolerate snow in April, and I'm starting to dislike that, too.