Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

I've had snow cover since Dec 14, and it will last awhile longer as we're expected to get 2-4" tomorrow. Then it turns cold again.

 

Probably a major thaw coming next week, though.

We've had snow cover here since about the same time, whenever that big storm was in mid December. Looks cold and quiet for a few days but I think we will see some action again mid to late this week. 

[Black Hole]

Looks like 1-2" for me on Wed night, maybe 2-5" Fri, and another 2-5" on Sunday. More rain or snow to come too. This should be a fun stretch. 

 

Tomorrows storm is mostly elevated but good flow direction could give some orographic enhancement for me. Mtns should do quite well. 

[Snowman5678]

It's cold! I was used to it when I left but now that i'm back it feels so cold! Drove my car down here to go skiing second semester and my poor car is so not used to the cold, definitely having issues turning over.  

[Snowman5678]

Winter weather advisory in effect tonight for the Salt Lake valley for 1-4" of snow. 

[halofromajo]

Saturday night looks like it could be a good storm for the mountains.

[Black Hole]

Closing in on 3 inches here now with snow increasing a bit. I am thinking probably 1-3" tomorrow evening, but if we can stay below 32 I would probably say 2-4". 

[Black Hole]

Storm really fell apart before it got here but we did have a period of snow earlier and snowing again right now. Not much of any accumulation though.

 

Next storm arrives Monday and another Wed, both look quite pathetic. 

 

The active weather has been fun but this has been a huge disappointment with the majority of these storms producing way less than model guidance just about every time. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

This pattern in my opinion has been more La Nina like this season for some reason.

[snow_wizard]

This pattern in my opinion has been more La Nina like this season for some reason.

 

I think we have had Ninoish periods, but they have consistently been followed by patterns that have Nina characteristics.

[snow_wizard]

It's cold! I was used to it when I left but now that i'm back it feels so cold! Drove my car down here to go skiing second semester and my poor car is so not used to the cold, definitely having issues turning over.

 

It wasn't all that warm when you were up here.

[Black Hole]

I think we have had Ninoish periods, but they have consistently been followed by patterns that have Nina characteristics.

I agree. Not a typical nino by any means. But that is exactly why I throw NCEP under the bus for their "average el nino climo" forecasts every time they do it. 

[Snowman5678]

It wasn't all that warm when you were up here.

True, but my car was parked in a garage at the coldest times of the day.  

[Black Hole]

Rain and snow moving in now. Probably T-2" storm total by morning. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I agree. Not a typical nino by any means. But that is exactly why I throw NCEP under the bus for their "average el nino climo" forecasts every time they do it. 

 

I know this hasn't been a typical El Nino pattern as of yet as Socal has not yet received the persistent rains it usually receives during such a strong event like 1997-98 or 1982-83. It is still early and there is plenty of time for things to change.

 

Since you are studying meteorology right now, I was wondering if you are seeing something in particular that is different this year that is causing the overall pattern to behave differently. I have been hearing about how the MJO has been active in the Indian Ocean and am wondering if that may be the culprit or one of the culprits.

[Black Hole]

I know this hasn't been a typical El Nino pattern as of yet as Socal has not yet received the persistent rains it usually receives during such a strong event like 1997-98 or 1982-83. It is still early and there is plenty of time for things to change.

 

Since you are studying meteorology right now, I was wondering if you are seeing something in particular that is different this year that is causing the overall pattern to behave differently. I have been hearing about how the MJO has been active in the Indian Ocean and am wondering if that may be the culprit or one of the culprits.

I think the main thing is not specific to this year that I would emphasize, but that is that el nino is important but only one piece of many in the puzzle that is our climate system. Being more specific, there are other oscillations such as the PDO, IO, NAO, AO, etc that I am sure you have heard of. The specific way these have organized, along with the inertia of the climate system if you will, can overwhelm any enso effect that we might see. 

[Black Hole]

We had 5" yesterday so it was quite a nice storm. Better than most were forecasting. Next chance coming in about 5 days. 

[Black Hole]

Next storm coming in on Friday with some rain from the Atmospheric River hitting the west coast. Rain will switch to snow Saturday with a strong baroclinic band. Could be a few inches. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I think the main thing is not specific to this year that I would emphasize, but that is that el nino is important but only one piece of many in the puzzle that is our climate system. Being more specific, there are other oscillations such as the PDO, IO, NAO, AO, etc that I am sure you have heard of. The specific way these have organized, along with the inertia of the climate system if you will, can overwhelm any enso effect that we might see. 

 

As you said there are many factors that drive any given weather pattern at any given time. However, with the El Nino as strong as it is, I would think that it would be a more dominant driver as it has been during other strong episodes. This year, it seems, that something is overriding the effects of El Nino more so for some reason.

[Black Hole]

As you said there are many factors that drive any given weather pattern at any given time. However, with the El Nino as strong as it is, I would think that it would be a more dominant driver as it has been during other strong episodes. This year, it seems, that something is overriding the effects of El Nino more so for some reason.

Even among el ninos there is variation in where the warmest water and thus the strongest forcing is. I would imagine that is probably pretty important actually.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a fun period coming up after a fairly uneventful January. Should see some snow (1-3") Sat night/Sun morning, then after a brief lull, heavy snow on Monday with a significant 12"+ storm possible. Then lighter snowfall Tuesday.

 

Like most strong El Ninos, this winter has yet to feature any serious cold around here, but had some nice early season storms and I'm expecting more the next couple months.

[Black Hole]

Big storm moving through southern Utah tonight. Many locations will see a foot of snow or more with mtns seeing several feet of snow. Up in my area we will get a few inches of snow but the big story is wind. Already seeing blowing and drifting snow with gusts of 30+ mph, and that will only increase. 

[Front Ranger]

I'm at about 6" for the storm right now. Looks like the heaviest snowfall will be this evening, with another 4-8" likely by daybreak tomorrow.

[MossMan]

I'm at about 6" for the storm right now. Looks like the heaviest snowfall will be this evening, with another 4-8" likely by daybreak tomorrow.

How much snow did you end up with?

[Snowman5678]

Looking pretty stagnant next week, probably a crappy inversion? 

There was discussion about inversion seasons in the PNW chat, so I was wondering, do you guys think there is an inversion season and if so when does it start/end in the Salt Lake valley? 

[halofromajo]

Last year when SLC has no snow on the ground pretty much the whole winter, inversion season never really got going because we were able to mix out a lot.  Realistically it entirely depends on when the snow on the ground melts and when it sticks.  a Good rule of thumb is from December to the middle of February.  This upcoming ridge looks bad, but if we can melt enough snow, I suspect it won't be as bad as forecasters are predicting right now.

[Snowman5678]

Last year when SLC has no snow on the ground pretty much the whole winter, inversion season never really got going because we were able to mix out a lot.  Realistically it entirely depends on when the snow on the ground melts and when it sticks.  a Good rule of thumb is from December to the middle of February.  This upcoming ridge looks bad, but if we can melt enough snow, I suspect it won't be as bad as forecasters are predicting right now.

Okay, thank you! I was hoping we had avoided getting a bad inversion this season. Hopefully we luck out and it's not too bad. 

[Snowman5678]

12z GFS looked pretty abysmal. One storm system grazing us on the 15th and dry and ridging the rest of the time. Hopefully it doesn't verify. 

The 6z GFS didn't have any systems coming in until the 18th-19th and then was dry for the remainder of the run. 

[Front Ranger]

How much snow did you end up with?

 

14". Biggest storm of the season thus far.

 

Been a cold week, but looks like next week will be warm and dry.

[Black Hole]

Well, absolutely nothing has been going on here with an inversion finally breaking yesterday. A chance of some rain and snow on Wed-Thurs but otherwise the dry weather continues. 

[Front Ranger]

Pretty much all the snow is gone here, for the first time since early December. Only piles in parking lots remain.

 

Windy and warm, my least favorite weather. No real cooldown coming for at least another week. Thursday looks like it could be one for the record books, with highs in the 72-76 range.

 

DEN's all-time record for February is 76, set in 1963. BOU's is 79, set in 1954. 

[Snowman5678]

Well, absolutely nothing has been going on here with an inversion finally breaking yesterday. A chance of some rain and snow on Wed-Thurs but otherwise the dry weather continues. 

Pretty boring..but at least its warm with much less pollution, I can finally run outside again, although the shoreline trail is still a sheet of ice.  

 

I'm kind of hoping the snow melts so we don't have to deal with more cold pools with the upcoming ridges.

[Snowman5678]

Warmer than I was expecting today. 56 at the MTMET station, 54 at the WBB, 56 at KSLC.

Wendover made it up to 61 and Tooele made it up to 59. 

[Front Ranger]

Four straight 60+ days here, and lots of wind. Will finally cool off next week, with a chance of snow on Tuesday.

[Black Hole]

The cold front we had the other day was actually pretty fun. Temperature dropped 25F in about 1 hour, most of that in 15 min though. The storm also brought high winds to the area and thundersnow.

 

Looks like some morning snow showers coming this Monday. Perhaps 1-2" with that. 

[Black Hole]

Still boring with nothing going on for the next week. All the snow is finally gone too. I think things will turn more interesting in a week but it might just be rain. 

[Snowman5678]

Still boring with nothing going on for the next week. All the snow is finally gone too. I think things will turn more interesting in a week but it might just be rain. 

Yeah, really boring. Snow was really crappy up at Park City yesterday. But it was interesting, there were quite a few trees down on the slopes. I'm assuming they came down in the cold front passage a week and a half ago. 

[Front Ranger]

Pretty awful stretch since the big storm a few weeks ago. I'm looking forward to at least one real big snowstorm in the next 6 weeks, though. Almost always happens with moderate/strong Ninos here.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Storm activity is forecast to pick up in CA starting late this coming weekend, and that may well translate to a more active pattern for all of you on this subforum as well. I agree that this has been quite a boring stretch of weather as of late in the SW.

[Jesse]

Hoping to see some snow when we're in Whitefish, MT in a few weeks. We will be there March 18-22. Right now there looks to be some potential for a cooler pattern over the intermountain west at that time.

[Black Hole]

Yeah, really boring. Snow was really crappy up at Park City yesterday. But it was interesting, there were quite a few trees down on the slopes. I'm assuming they came down in the cold front passage a week and a half ago. 

At least things finally changed yesterday.

 

We had a cold front with thunderstorms yesterday (frequent lightning and small hail or graupel) followed by 1-2" of snow for areas off the valley floor. High was 60, a few hours later it was 32. Also, winds were pretty strong with the front.

 

Sunny today, with no big storms expected this week again. Models hinting at more action 7-10 days from now.