Mountain West Discussion

[Front Ranger]

Pattern definitely continues to look promising for the forseeable future. Mountain West was due for a snowy November.

[Front Ranger]

Some model runs are spitting out big storm totals for next week...we shall see.

[Black Hole]

Models were looking pretty good for the coming cold air and snow on Monday but suddenly they are backing off like crazy. Might be another no show of a storm that falls apart in the last 36 hours. This is kind of ridiculous but not much to be done about it.

 

Models are now agreeing we could see some warm advection snow on Tuesday, but amounts are uncertain. Could be anything from a trace to a few inches. My guess is not much but mountains could do really well.

 

Finally still watching the possibility of another cold blast later next week but models are all over the place...and it will probably split anyway lol. 

[Front Ranger]

No longer looking like a real big storm is likely Monday night/Tue, as models move it through pretty quickly. Probably in the 2-6" range again.

[Front Ranger]

A year ago today we were wrapping up the greatest pre-11/20 cold wave in Denver history.

 

At the height of it.

 

11/11/14: 16/5

11/12/14: 6/-13

11/13/14: 13/-14

[Front Ranger]

Blizzard Warning for the plains, starting just east of Denver. Expecting 4-8" here.

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
TUESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THE HEAVY SNOW MAY LAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
DENVER AREA...WHILE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO THE SNOW
MAY LAST UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10
INCHES...WITH UP TO 14 INCHES IN A BAND FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY TO
BETWEEN LIMON AND AKRON.

* WIND/VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH
BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
EAST OF DENVER. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN OPEN
AREAS.

[Black Hole]

Well, some places did well but nothing again for me. A string of bad luck to say the least. ECMWF showing another blast of cold air in a week or so but at this point I just can't believe anything they are showing anymore. We have already had 3 major blasts watered down to nothing...maybe it will work out but not getting my hopes up yet. 

[Snowman5678]

Well, some places did well but nothing again for me. A string of bad luck to say the least. ECMWF showing another blast of cold air in a week or so but at this point I just can't believe anything they are showing anymore. We have already had 3 major blasts watered down to nothing...maybe it will work out but not getting my hopes up yet. 

I'm actually hoping this upcoming blast doesn't happen because it looks like it'll come in around Tuesday (last I checked) and I'm flying home to Seattle on Tuesday so I don't want to get stuck at the airport. Meanwhile last I checked the weather was looking relatively boring in Seattle when I'm home...bad luck. But watch this next blast is going to happen cause I don't want it to. haha!

[Front Ranger]

Precip finally turned to all snow here about 30 minutes ago. Now we'll see how heavy things get tonight. This will probably be one of those storms where some spots in the metro area get 3", while others get over a foot.

[Geos]

Palmer divide expecting a lot of snow from this system.

 

Noticed up to 7-13" for Denver proper in the grid forecast.

 

[Front Ranger]

It's just warm enough (33 at my house) that if this storm were occurring during the day, there wouldn't be much sticking to the roads at this point. As it is, I'm sure they'll be a mess in the morning, especially with the winds. 1.5" here so far.

 

Definitely blizzard conditions in Cheyenne, with sustained winds of 30 and gusts to 45: http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCYS.html

[BLI snowman]

It's just warm enough (33 at my house) that if this storm were occurring during the day, there wouldn't be much sticking to the roads at this point. As it is, I'm sure they'll be a mess in the morning, especially with the winds. 1.5" here so far.

 

Definitely blizzard conditions in Cheyenne, with sustained winds of 30 and gusts to 45: http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCYS.html

 

Sustained winds at 37mph right now at APA. Looks like lots of the Denver area could crack 8"+.

[Front Ranger]

Sustained winds at 37mph right now at APA. Looks like lots of the Denver area could crack 8"+.

 

Much of the south Denver area did. Where I live in the NW burbs, only 3". I work in Boulder, and they barely got anything! Yet I-25 just south of Denver was shut down because of blizzard conditions for awhile this morning. Crazy storm.

[Phil]

Congrats to you lucky bastards.

[Front Ranger]

Absolutely insane Bora winds today. Lots of reports of 80-100+ mph gusts along the foothills. I started driving into the office in Boulder and turned around fearing for my life...tons of debris flying around and my car was nearly blown off the road. Honestly, probably the strongest winds I've ever witnessed.

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely insane Bora winds today. Lots of reports of 80-100+ mph gusts along the foothills. I started driving into the office in Boulder and turned around fearing for my life...tons of debris flying around and my car was nearly blown off the road. Honestly, probably the strongest winds I've ever witnessed.

 

Scary.

 

Why does the official Denver observation say 20 mph and Boulder at 27 mph?   

 

Are the winds localized by micro-climates?

[Front Ranger]

Scary.

 

Why does the official Denver observation say 20 mph and Boulder at 27 mph?   

 

Are the winds localized by micro-climates?

 

DEN is way out on the plains. The Boulder airport is on the northeast side of town and doesn't always reflect what is going on right by the foothills.

 

This is the closest airport to where I live, 2-3 miles away: http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBJC.html. As you can see, sustained wind of 47 with gusts to 64 last hour. 

 

But if you want the real evidence, watch this video. The reporter is right on my usual route to work! http://www.9news.com/story/weather/2015/11/18/denver-weather-colorado-forecast-wind-snow-blizzard-winter-storm/75978190/

[TT-SEA]

DEN is way out on the plains. The Boulder airport is on the northeast side of town and doesn't always reflect what is going on right by the foothills.

 

This is the closest airport to where I live, 2-3 miles away: http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBJC.html. As you can see, sustained wind of 47 with gusts to 64 last hour. 

 

But if you want the real evidence, watch this video. The reporter is right on my usual route to work! http://www.9news.com/story/weather/2015/11/18/denver-weather-colorado-forecast-wind-snow-blizzard-winter-storm/75978190/

 

Amazing.  

[Dan the Weatherman]

Absolutely insane Bora winds today. Lots of reports of 80-100+ mph gusts along the foothills. I started driving into the office in Boulder and turned around fearing for my life...tons of debris flying around and my car was nearly blown off the road. Honestly, probably the strongest winds I've ever witnessed.

What is a Bora wind? Is it a type of downsloping wind like that of a Santa Ana in Socal?

[Front Ranger]

What is a Bora wind? Is it a type of downsloping wind like that of a Santa Ana in Socal?

 

Yeah, it's a generally cold downsloping wind caused by low pressure exiting to the east. Good article explaining it here: http://denver.cbslocal.com/2015/11/18/bora-windstorm-whips-areas-near-denver-with-gusts-over-100-mph/

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yeah, it's a generally cold downsloping wind caused by low pressure exiting to the east. Good article explaining it here: http://denver.cbslocal.com/2015/11/18/bora-windstorm-whips-areas-near-denver-with-gusts-over-100-mph/

 

Thanks for the info! I have never heard of a Bora wind before, although I have heard of Chinook winds many times.

[Black Hole]

Rainy night here, should last into the morning before it dries out and cools off. Watching for a cold system next week but trends seem to want to keep it west, which is what I expect. 

[Front Ranger]

DEN hit 5 this morning. 13 at my house, by far the coldest temps so far this season.

[Front Ranger]

Interesting pattern on the Euro. Cold, cutoff low develops late next week over intermountain West, and then slowly drifts east across the mid section of the country. Would keep temps here pretty cold for at least 3-4 days.

[Front Ranger]

Interesting pattern on the Euro. Cold, cutoff low develops late next week over intermountain West, and then slowly drifts east across the mid section of the country. Would keep temps here pretty cold for at least 3-4 days.

 

This solution did indeed pan out. Came home today to 4" of dry powder and temps in the low 20s. We've been below freezing since late Wednesday here and could remain that way for another 48 hours at least. Another 1-3" expected tomorrow night.

[Guest happ]

Hated to see the tragedy in Colorado Springs on TV but was stoked by all the snowfall.   

[Front Ranger]

Hated to see the tragedy in Colorado Springs on TV but was stoked by all the snowfall.   

 

Watch the Broncos/Patriots game tonight and you should see some more snowfall.

[Black Hole]

The cold has verified but the snow has not. So far about 1/4" to show for several sub freezing days but the cold has been fun. Looks like tonight will be our best chance for maybe an inch. Inversions will be locked in for a while though. 

[Front Ranger]

The cold has verified but the snow has not. So far about 1/4" to show for several sub freezing days but the cold has been fun. Looks like tonight will be our best chance for maybe an inch. Inversions will be locked in for a while though. 

 

Bummer you couldn't score much snow out of this. Seems like the SLC area has had some bad luck the past couple years. It'll change eventually.

 

DEN ends the month with 10.5". Had almost the same in my backyard, 11". A nice November, but places further south did much better, with places just south of Denver seeing 2 feet+ this month.

[Black Hole]

Bummer you couldn't score much snow out of this. Seems like the SLC area has had some bad luck the past couple years. It'll change eventually.

 

DEN ends the month with 10.5". Had almost the same in my backyard, 11". A nice November, but places further south did much better, with places just south of Denver seeing 2 feet+ this month.

Yeah, its been a pretty crummy run the last few years. Looking like another cold trough drops in around Dec 10th so maybe then!

[Black Hole]

Inverted conditions present, although not particularly cold just polluted. Should mix out with the progressive storm track starting up. Small chance of a snow shower tomorrow night, mostly looking at mid next week though...better chance then. 

[luminen]

Bummer you couldn't score much snow out of this. Seems like the SLC area has had some bad luck the past couple years. It'll change eventually.

 

DEN ends the month with 10.5". Had almost the same in my backyard, 11". A nice November, but places further south did much better, with places just south of Denver seeing 2 feet+ this month.

 

How far south? Englewood south or Highlands Ranch south? I lived near Englewood. Miss it!

[Front Ranger]

How far south? Englewood south or Highlands Ranch south? I lived near Englewood. Miss it!

 

Englewood did a lot better than where I live (I think they got 8-9" with the big storm), but Highlands Ranch/Castle Rock/Parker were the really big winners.

[Black Hole]

Here we go again, another deep trough showing up in about a week on models. Looks more progressive so thats a start. 

[Black Hole]

Generally a cool and wet pattern is still on tap, setting in next Thurs-Fri. Probably several shots for snow even if some don't work out. 

[Black Hole]

Thursday night we should see a 1-3" storm followed by perhaps another small storm Friday. Not really cold, but more progressive still so that is key. 

[Front Ranger]

The pattern starting late this week should deliver several good chances for snow for both of us. I'm sure your area will do better than the late November pattern.

[Snowman5678]

Thursday night we should see a 1-3" storm followed by perhaps another small storm Friday. Not really cold, but more progressive still so that is key. 

As long as there is snow i'm happy! I'll have to head down to the weather discussions on Wednesday and Thursday!

[Black Hole]

As long as there is snow i'm happy! I'll have to head down to the weather discussions on Wednesday and Thursday!

I may try and stop by one of those days. At least if Thursday does fall apart we have plenty of other chances, but for now still looks like at least a little something.

[Snowman5678]

I may try and stop by one of those days. At least if Thursday does fall apart we have plenty of other chances, but for now still looks like at least a little something.

Yeah Thursday isn't looking too good. Looks like Sunday afternoon and Monday will be a bit better. I'm flying on Tuesday so I bet you guys get interesting weather after that.