TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Man, it would seem like everything is always trending warmer and drier. Except when it’s not. Then you basically just don’t mention any model runs for a few days. It would seem like everything is always trending colder and wetter if I only looked at your posts. I would have had no idea how beautiful this past weekend ended up being... under our mythical ridge. You never mentioned it after the cold and wet troughing fell apart. I guess maybe we all tend to focus on things we find interesting? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Ended up with 0.19" of rain yesterday. About 0.2" so far today. Not a bad start to April. It would be nice to have normal rainfall the next 2-3 months. Doesn't need to be a washout. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 The nourishing rain of the Lord falling this morning. Warm and wet. A perfect recipe for a ripe green up. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs. F19CC0AB-E902-4CE6-9673-D5B88BC8D977.png Nice job! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 It would seem like everything is always trending colder and wetter if I only looked at your posts. I would have had no idea how beautiful this past weekend ended up being. I guess maybe we all tend to focus on things we find interesting?My pictures of the LNF Santiam captured the beautiful weekend pretty well. Although they don’t include a Safeway parking lot so maybe you didn’t find them as interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs. F19CC0AB-E902-4CE6-9673-D5B88BC8D977.png We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 The nourishing rain of the Lord falling this morning. Warm and wet. A perfect recipe for a ripe green up. I am really looking forward to this... going to be a transformation to lush coming soon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average. Tim will tell! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 There’s like a shield over Seattle-north or something. Last 24 hours, the cloud cover just gets obliterated as it tries to creep this way. The ridge is refusing to give in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Sunday looks very wet. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Tim will tell! You know he's going to rub it in! I liked Tim's pics, North Bend is gorgeous. If I made like 350K a year maybe I could afford to live there. The LNF is basically my backyard, enjoyed the pics. It will be at its peak beauty in May and June. The North Fork flowing high and clear after a late spring rain under a drippy rainforest canopy is one of my favorite childhood memories. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 The LNF is basically my backyard, enjoyed the pics. It will be at its peak beauty in May and June. The North Fork flowing high and clear after a late spring rain under a drippy rainforest canopy is one of my favorite childhood memories. I really like that whole corridor during a normally wet late spring/early summer. The stretch up to Marion Forks looks and feels like fern gully on a misty early June day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Sunday looks very wet. Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 I really like that whole corridor during a normally wet late spring/early summer. The stretch up to Marion Forks looks and feels like fern gully on a misty early June day. There is a nice simple little campground up at Marion Forks. Even during the height of summer it is rarely full. It is a nice base camp for day hikes and fishing. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing. I think we will end up being alright in the rain department, at some point we’re going to get some soaking rain. I don’t think we will see as much rain this April as last April but I think it should be enough to make up for the dryness recently...atleast I hope it does. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 April 6-7 appears to be nice date last 3 years for some decent. This year will be no exception. Latest UW-WRF is showing the deep center low closer to the coast and gives PDX a good blow. Still windy in Seattle. This should get K12 going. One thing to note: it has not been consistent, previous runs had shown this being up in BC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 The pattern that is favorable for SW flow and heavy rain does not seem to last very long... here is a week from today on the 12Z GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 I think we will end up being alright in the rain department, at some point we’re going to get some soaking rain. I don’t think we will see as much rain this April as last April but I think it should be enough to make up for the dryness recently...atleast I hope it does.Last April was a soaker so I’m not expecting a repeat. There is also a stark drop off in rain averages between March and April so if we can squeeze out an 1-2” or so this month I’ll be happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Much of next week looks fairly dry with some troughing late week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing. Still much wetter than the 12Z FV3 for Sunday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Still much wetter than the 12Z FV3 for Sunday... Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro? I kid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 April 6-7 appears to be nice date last 3 years for some decent. This year will be no exception. Latest UW-WRF is showing the deep center low closer to the coast and gives PDX a good blow. Still windy in Seattle. This should get K12 going. One thing to note: it has not been consistent, previous runs had shown this being up in BC. Get the feeling it will be windy again on the same day it has the past couple years this year. Still lots of time for the forecast to change. Will be a step under the storms we had on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 if it ends up verifying. It’s interesting that it could be 3 years in a row on the same day that we see similar storms. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro? I kid.When they better fit a narrative. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro? I kid. Good point! I just noticed that the FV3 did not agree with the GFS with that rain event on Sunday. 00Z ECMWF was somewhat similar with the main rain band way to the south and just partly sunny with scattered light showers up here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Get the feeling it will be windy again on the same day it has the past couple years this year. Still lots of time for the forecast to change. Will be a step under the storms we had on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 if it ends up verifying. It’s interesting that it could be 3 years in a row on the same day that we see similar storms.Per Scott S. the Euro is showing 40-45mph Friday night. Still days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average. I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy... I was going to say the same thing. I believe we have thrown climo out the window right?? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy... Pretty awesome we managed to beat the odds! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing. It almost appears from that map that there's some sort of mountain range to the west causing shadowing. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Pretty awesome we managed to beat the odds! Shades of the 2016 election! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Probably wouldn’t be as strong as the winds on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 but it’s something to keep an eye on. Forecast for winds are always tricky and a few miles difference can change the forecast entirely plus it’s 96 hours out still.It’s baggy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 It almost appears from that map that there's some sort of mountain range to the west causing shadowing.It looks like a SW flow? If that’s the case there wouldn’t be any shadowing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Shades of the 2016 election! November 2016February 2019 Most surreal moments of my life right there... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 It looks like a SW flow? If that’s the case there wouldn’t be any shadowing. There would still be some. But what the GFS shows is not really even related to shadowing on Sunday... the main moisture plume is just a little too far to the south and east. In a true shadowing scenario... you would see heavy precip on the Olympic Peninsula as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 System coming in Thursday is looking slower in recent runs... likely going to be another fairly warm, dry day up here.I was expecting to get rained out at work on Thursday but now it’s looking like we might end up fairly dry. Seems like this upcoming wet period has been trending a little less impressive here locally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Amazing to see PDX hasn't received measurable rain yet. Salem is at about 1/2" over the past 24 hours now. 1.09" in Eugene over the past 30 hours. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Amazing to see PDX hasn't received measurable rain yet. Salem is at about 1/2" over the past 24 hours now. 1.09" in Eugene over the past 30 hours. Nice! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Just tallied my March stats. Overall a slightly cooler than average month and one of the driest on record up here. A VERY cold first half of the month followed by a very warm 2nd half of the month. The first 16 days had sub-freezing lows, but there was only 1 sub-freezing low the rest of the month. Average Max: 50.1Average Min: 30.9Mean: 40.5 (-1.6)Precip: 2.84" (-6.25)Snow: 10.9" Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2019 Report Share Posted April 2, 2019 Just tallied my March stats. Overall a slightly cooler than average month and one of the driest on record up here. A VERY cold first half of the month followed by a very warm 2nd half of the month. The first 16 days had sub-freezing lows, but there was only 1 sub-freezing low the rest of the month. Average Max: 50.1Average Min: 30.9Mean: 40.5 (-1.6)Precip: 2.84" (-6.25)Snow: 10.9" The North Bend station was warmer and even drier... Avg Max 56.7Avg Min 35.0Mean 45.2Precip 1.71" They don't measure snow there. 8 days with lows below freezing... all before 3/10. The first 9 days were cold with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s... started warming up on 3/10 with a high of 54. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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