April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Phil]

It wasn't really the case in the 2015-16 Nino, though, and definitely not in 2014-15.

Yeah, it’s the NAM and z-cell/QBO state (the relationship changes when solar forcing is reduced), not just the niño regime. Convection has been more equator-focused this year, and the poleward WAF is much less aggressive.

[GHweatherChris]

What about the ABC?

[Omegaraptor]

Safe to say that the wet north/dry south pattern that dominated much of the past few years has reversed.

 

60dPNormWRCC.png

Okanogan County still sticks out as well below normal.

 

I wonder how Okanogan/Ferry counties will do this summer with water levels. Let’s hope for good snowpack and no wildfires.

[Jesse]

Okanogan County still sticks out as well below normal.

 

I wonder how Okanogan/Ferry counties will do this summer with water levels. Let’s hope for good snowpack and no wildfires.

East side is a lot different than the west side. That bright red on the Olympic Peninusula represents a much larger amount of rain that hasn’t fallen compared to the red in Okanogan County.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF brings that large area of rain much farther north on Sunday afternoon and evening... looks like a good soaking for everyone.

 

[Omegaraptor]

East side is a lot different than the west side. That bright red on the Olympic Peninusula represents a much larger amount of rain that hasn’t fallen compared to the red in Okanogan County.

The area of greatest drought concern seems to be in Okanogan County, at least according to the drought map.

 

From the SWE maps the driest areas in terms of snowpack are Central Sound and Upper Yakima (Kittitas County). On those maps, the upper Columbia snowpack (Okanogan/Ferry/Stevens) is 83% of normal compared to under 70% in the two dry areas.

 

Okanogan County is behind the rest of Eastern WA in terms of YTD precip (at least the Omak station is) but as long as they get some rain and snow during this active period it shouldn’t be too big of a problem, hopefully.

[Requiem]

The windstorm potential is intriguing- though I doubt the EURO shows anything. Some models have a decently deep low spin up towards the coast.

[Cloud]

00Z ECMWF brings that large area of rain much farther north on Sunday afternoon and evening... looks like a good soaking for everyone.

 

Yesssssss

[MossMan]

Good timing. Was dry last evening, and dry again this morning but rained overnight.

[TT-SEA]

About .25 overnight here.

 

Currently 50 degrees... everything looks fresh and green.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Does not look like there will be much in the wind department besides some breeziness this weekend.

[Requiem]

Does not look like there will be much in the wind department besides some breeziness this weekend.

Some models still put a low pressure area near the WA coast. Can’t count out anything yet.

[Omegaraptor]

How’s the weekend system looking? Lots of yellow on the GFS precip map over the ranges, and dark green in the valleys.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some models still put a low pressure area near the WA coast. Can’t count out anything yet.

anything can happen still but it looked more impressive yesterday than today. Even if it was as strong as it was forecasted yesterday it wouldn’t be very strong still. We have seen windstorms form out of nowhere unexpectedly too and it’s a few days out so it could end up being a completely different forecast in 24 hours.

Winds this afternoon look more impressive than this weekend even. 30-40mph gusts expected this afternoon/evening in the Interior in Western WA today.

[TT-SEA]

Raining... yard looks happy.  

 

[El_Nina]

Raining... yard looks happy.  

 

Hemlocks galore.

[TT-SEA]

Hemlocks galore.

 

The weed of trees here.   They grow about as fast as weeds. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The weed of trees here.   They grow about as fast as weeds. 

 

I love Hemlocks. 

 

Ended up with 0.86" of rain yesterday. We'll probably pass March's total in the first 7-10 days of the month. 

[ShawniganLake]

The weed of trees here. They grow about as fast as weeds.

Interesting. There are hardly any around here. Maybe too dry or they don’t like Rocky soils? We had 1 at the back of our property when we moved here but it died a couple summers ago.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hoping after this week the rains continue especially north of Seattle in the cascades of north Washington. The Southern WA cascades are just a little short of normal snowpack but the central and north cascades are more in the 60-80% range. North Central Washington appears to be the most dry location. We all need rain in WA not so much in OR or CA but it’s needed even more north of Seattle especially.

[ShawniganLake]

0.15” of rain here since it started around midnight

[Requiem]

Hoping after this week the rains continue especially north of Seattle in the cascades of north Washington. The Southern WA cascades are just a little short of normal snowpack but the central and north cascades are more in the 60-80% range. North Central Washington appears to be the most dry location. We all need rain in WA not so much in OR or CA but it’s needed even more north of Seattle especially.

OR needs rain as well. CA should be okay for now.

[Omegaraptor]

So question, why does Okanogan County have the greatest drought concern in the PNW despite having over 80% snowpack in the North Columbia Basin? Is all the snowpack in Ferry and Stevens counties?

[TT-SEA]

So question, why does Okanogan County have the greatest drought concern in the PNW despite having over 80% snowpack in the North Columbia Basin? Is all the snowpack in Ferry and Stevens counties?

 

 

You seem very concerned about a single county in WA that is largely unpopulated... and a map that is far from perfect and typically only used as a general guide.  

[Jesse]

You seem very concerned about one single county in WA that is largely unpopulated... and a map that is far from perfect and typically only used as a general guide.

 

It’s also a pretty dry county. Like I said yesterday, the red on the west side of the Olympic peninsula represents a much larger total rainfall deficit. Give Okanogan county a few good storms and they will get to average quickly. A county like Clallam will have a harder time making up ground though given their much higher averages.

[Omegaraptor]

You seem very concerned about a single county in WA that is largely unpopulated... and a map that is far from perfect and typically only used as a general guide.

 

I know it’s a rural county, but it’s still a weird discrepancy between the drought map and the snowpack maps. A lot of articles from the area are saying that the county missed a lot of the winter snowstorms and that drought is developing there, but the snowpack maps are pretty broad as to area.

 

Jesse is definitely right about Eastern WA droughts, as I have said before. The difference between a drought and normal in Eastern WA can be just one good storm. It’s harder to make up drought in Western OR and WA, where most rain falls as drizzle that has a hard time amounting to anything. ARs are sometimes unhelpful as they sometimes bring warmer temps and fall as rain in the mountains.

[TT-SEA]

I know it’s a rural county, but it’s still a weird discrepancy between the drought map and the snowpack maps. A lot of articles from the area are saying that the county missed a lot of the winter snowstorms and that drought is developing there, but the snowpack maps are pretty broad.

 

Jesse is definitely right about Eastern WA droughts, as I have said before. The difference between a drought and normal in Eastern WA can be just one good storm.

 

The drought maps are a low resolution guide.    

[Jesse]

The drought maps are a low resolution guide.

 

They are actually just plain wrong and all the red areas actually just represent the high proportion of people enjoying the nice weather.

[TT-SEA]

They are actually just plain wrong and all the red areas actually just represent the high proportion of people enjoying the nice weather.

 

And of course you have to turn the discussion into sarcastic BS.  

[Jesse]

And of course you have to turn the discussion into sarcastic BS.

Picking up slack for Dewey. He hasn’t been on much lately.

[TacomaWaWx]

OR needs rain as well. CA should be okay for now.

The OR cascades have done better with snow pack this winter compared to the WA cascades. The snow pack maps aren’t 100% exact obviously but still many places in the OR cascades are at normal or a little above besides Mt.Hood area from what I saw. Farther north you go along the cascades the lower the percentages are. But yes OR and WA need the rain.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow is looking really nice up here. 

[Omegaraptor]

This weekend is looking really nice over here.

[TT-SEA]

This weekend is looking really nice over here.

Not for Tiger and his lawn mowing!

[TacomaWaWx]

Have had a couple heavy rain squalls with some gusts this morning. Could get more interesting this afternoon/evening.

[Omegaraptor]

With April showers comes one of the best things about spring weather here: no more bone dry east winds. Well, they still exist, but not to the point of being uncomfortable.

 

I was just reviewing some of the weather in early March. Dewpoints on March 3 peaked below 15°F and went to 0°F at night.

 

Just thinking about that makes my eyes burn.

[TacomaWaWx]

With April showers comes one of the best things about spring weather here: no more bone dry east winds. Well, they still exist, but not to the point of being uncomfortable.

 

I was just reviewing some of the weather in early March. Dewpoints on March 3 peaked below 15°F and went to 0°F at night.

 

Just thinking about that makes my eyes burn.

on the 27th of February we had a crazy cascadia wind event that sent bone dry cold air pouring over the mountains. East winds topped 45mph here almost steadily the entire night. I’m sure there were higher gusts than that recorded near the foothills too. The air was incredibly dry too, I remember cliff mass mentioning that at a time during the cold spell some of the driest air in the country was in Seattle.

[Omegaraptor]

on the 27th of February we had a crazy cascadia wind event that sent bone dry cold air pouring over the mountains. East winds topped 45mph here almost steadily the entire night. I’m sure there were higher gusts than that recorded near the foothills too. The air was incredibly dry too, I remember cliff mass mentioning that at a time during the cold spell some of the driest air in the country was in Seattle.

Yeah, I remember the Cliff Mass article. DPs bottomed out at -1°F at Seattle I think.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah, I remember the Cliff Mass article. DPs bottomed out at -1°F at Seattle I think.

Lots of cold dry air pushed through the cascade gaps. That day it also snowed at 40 degrees due to how low the dew point was. Never seen it snow at 40 degrees, just goes to show how dry the air was. It was really impressive seeing and hearing the east winds that night I’ve never seen East winds that strong.