May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[ShawniganLake]

00Z ECMWF is fully on board with the trough late next week... like previous runs and the EPS.

 

GFS is out to lunch.

Much rain with it?

[TT-SEA]

Much rain with it?

Adds up out here. But some serious shadowing in places as well.

 

But even here... getting an inch of rain over the next 10 days in early June is probably a little drier than normal.

 

[MossMan]

Adds up out here. But some serious shadowing in places as well.

 

But even here... getting an inch of rain over the next 10 days in early June is probably a little drier than normal.

 

Hopefully we cycle back to a ridge starting around the 9th. Heading to Eastern Wa and want it nice and warm to hot! First vacation in two years!

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully we cycle back to a ridge starting around the 9th. Heading to Eastern Wa and want it nice and warm to hot! First vacation in two years!

 

00Z EPS says you might be in luck... ridging is back by day 10.

 

[ShawniganLake]

00Z EPS says you might be in luck... ridging is back by day 10.

 

You better check with Phil first. You are likely interpreting this wrong.

[TT-SEA]

You better check with Phil first. You are likely interpreting this wrong.

 

 

Ridges don't exist... they are just gaps between troughs.     And only last for 1-2 hours at the most.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully we cycle back to a ridge starting around the 9th. Heading to Eastern Wa and want it nice and warm to hot! First vacation in two years!

 

Wow. I hope its good. The way Jesse talks about you I assumed you vacationed all the time and lived a life of perpetual adolescence.  

[jcmcgaffey]

Adds up out here. But some serious shadowing in places as well.

 

But even here... getting an inch of rain over the next 10 days in early June is probably a little drier than normal.

 

Looks like northwest flow and a pattern that has been the consistent theme. Areas that are normally the most dry in western Washington like Sequim are some of the wettest. I wonder how that town has done so far this year in terms of precip. I bet they are one of the only areas above normal on the year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next weekend definitely looks cool, but not too wet. 

[TacomaWaWx]

55 and cloudy again this morning. Almost time to start the June discussion!

[TacomaWaWx]

Adds up out here. But some serious shadowing in places as well.

 

But even here... getting an inch of rain over the next 10 days in early June is probably a little drier than normal.

 

Almost an inch in some places but barely anything in Tacoma only 0.10”. The Olympic rain shadow doing its magic.

[jakeinthevalley]

That was one of the products that we used. The Poa greens seemed to constantly want to pop with fusarium if we were even one day past the preventive application. It was a bit stressful being a golf course superintendent and being responsible for each one of those grass blades lives!

I freaking hate Poa!! I start from scratch on my front grass every 4-5 years because that stuff just takes over down here. I mow at about 5/8" so the clumps of Poa are easy to spot and hand pull at first but the little bastards can easily produce seed heads at that height (and lower). Seems to happen overnight.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and already up to 72F here.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and already up to 72F here.

 

 

Marine layer squeezed in here around 8 a.m. after a sunny start to the day... but it is evaporating now and the sun is out again.  

[Front Ranger]

Looks like northwest flow and a pattern that has been the consistent theme. Areas that are normally the most dry in western Washington like Sequim are some of the wettest. I wonder how that town has done so far this year in terms of precip. I bet they are one of the only areas above normal on the year.

 

Sequim itself is just slightly above normal for the year (7.46" compared to a normal of 7.18").

 

But yeah, the area from there west to Port Angeles on the north side of the Olympics is the only area in western WA running positive on the year. Most of that is actually due to heavy snowfall in February.

 

[jcmcgaffey]

Sequim itself is just slightly above normal for the year (7.46" compared to a normal of 7.18").

 

But yeah, the area from there west to Port Angeles on the north side of the Olympics is the only area in western WA running positive on the year. Most of that is actually due to heavy snowfall in February.

 

YearPNormWA.png

ya good point. I just find the stark differences within Washington interesting. In the end it it is due to an unusually consistent pattern but it is different than the region as a whole being below normal. It is just from being on the edge between ridging and NW flow which is more of a drier pattern than the heavy precip that comes with SW flow. We have really lacked the heavy southwest flow that we usually see more often.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sunny and already up to 72F here.

marine layer hasn’t burned off here down south but it probably will soon. 60 degrees currently.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful in the s valley. 73F.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sun is fully out now. Up to 66 degrees now.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is totally on board with a deep trough one week from today...

 

 

 

And then by day 10... it shows one of those very tiny gaps between troughs... probably not noticeable but the rain may let up for a few hours.   

 

 

 

 

In fact... by day 14 it has totally vanished and its probably back to default wet and cold if I am interpreting this correctly.   Not worth mentioning.   But when its raining almost every day... you have to laser focus on these extremely short breaks.

 

 

 

But I don't know how to read maps... so its probably just going to rain for the next 15 days straight.   Phil will clarify.  

[Timmy Supercell]

The sky looks comparably more active here than yesterday at this time, so maybe a rumble later.

 

Anything worth taking video of, probably not that type of convection. 

[Phil]

You’re not hiding your angst well, Tim.

 

Funny thing is, I haven’t been off the walls or wrong about the nature of the patterns (yet). So your trolling reveals more about you than it does me.

[TT-SEA]

You’re not hiding your angst well, Tim.

 

Funny thing is, I haven’t been off the walls or wrong about the nature of the patterns (yet). So your trolling reveals more about you than it does me.

Angst about what? A couple days with some rain over the next 2 weeks? We need it badly and it better happen.

 

My post was about you repeatedly mocking me for not recognizing the ongoing wet pattern continuing. And pimping our short dry spells.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 years ago, one of my best rainbows.

 

[TT-SEA]

May is essentially in the books now.

 

The North Bend station is updated... and the month ended with 1.59 inches of rain compared to normal of 3.53 inches.    So less than 50% of normal.

 

There were 23 dry days in the month and 8 days with rain.   Most of the dry days were also sunny... and it was quite a sunny month overall which was definitely different than last year.  

 

It was also approximately +3.1 degrees warmer than normal.   The warmest temperature was 85 on 5/10.

[Timmy Supercell]

May 2019 Mean for K-Falls is marginally above average at +1.0 (assuming today's high is 73), average high ended at +1.5.

[TT-SEA]

The water temperature at the main buoy in the middle of Lake Sammamish is now up to 69 degrees... which means its likely in the low 70s now near the beaches. Not bad for the end of May. We have to get out there again this weekend.

 

Although Andrew warned of death if we get in the water.  

[Timmy]

The water temperature at main buoy in the middle of Lake Sammamish is now up to 69 degrees... which means its likely in the low 70s now near the beaches. Not bad for the end of May. We have to get out there again this weekend.

58 in the multnomah channel

[ShawniganLake]

Shawnigan Lake is at +4.3 for May. (Could go up another tenth or 2). Precip is at 57% of normal.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 75 degrees now pretty similar to yesterday. Enjoying the nice weather while it lasts with the cooler and wetter conditions most likely coming in a few days.

[TT-SEA]

58 in the multnomah channel

Yuck!

[Timmy Supercell]

Just heard a loud boom!

[Timmy Supercell]

Wunderground's radar is very glitchy, want to zoom in and it takes me to the far upper right corner of the radar instead of focusing onto a t'storm just to my east. GR refuses to work on my new laptop and been trying to find a good interactive radar.

[Jesse]

12Z EPS is totally on board with a deep trough one week from today...

 

 

 

And then by day 10... it shows one of those very tiny gaps between troughs... probably not noticeable but the rain may let up for a few hours.

 

 

 

 

In fact... by day 14 it has totally vanished and its probably back to default wet and cold if I am interpreting this correctly. Not worth mentioning. But when its raining almost every day... you have to laser focus on these extremely short breaks.

 

 

 

But I don't know how to read maps... so its probably just going to rain for the next 15 days straight. Phil will clarify.

Nice to see you are still completely polluting this place. I guess things didn’t change much while I was gone.

[Jesse]

Waiting for our connection back to PDX at Sea-Tac at the moment.

 

#bellyofthebeast

[TT-SEA]

Nice to see you are still completely polluting this place. I guess things didn’t change much while I was gone.

Phil does the polluting. This is what he gets in response.

[Jesse]

Weather in Germany was dry and partly sunny with highs in the 60s most days. I think it only rained on one or two days we were over there, and even those were just showers part of the day. Beautiful country though.

[TT-SEA]

Weather in Germany was dry and partly sunny with highs in the 60s most days. I think it only rained on one or two days we were over there. Beautiful country though.

Looks like low 90s in Berlin by Monday. Their climate is more screwed up than ours apparently... considering they are at 52N.

[jcmcgaffey]

Nice to see you are still completely polluting this place. I guess things didn’t change much while I was gone.

actually I was thinking it had been pretty calm on the forum lately.

[Jesse]

actually I was thinking it had been pretty calm on the forum lately.

Definitely a lot of attempted trolling that went without any response, just based on my scrolling over the last several pages. Which I suppose is a good thing.