2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[jaster220]

Winter temperatures and snow fall predictions are nothing more than just a guess. So that being said today WOOD TV 8 came out with their guess for the winter in west Michigan. They think that this winter will be a lot like last winter in being a “back loaded” winter so after this cold mid December their thinking is that it will warm up and stay mild well into December (maybe the start of January) Here are some of the snow fall guesses that each person has made.

• Emily Schuitema predicts: 87 inches of snow in Kalamazoo, 83 inches in Grand Rapids, 100 inches in Holland and 101 in Muskegon.
• Ellen Bacca predicts: 90 inches in Kalamazoo, 89 inches in Grand Rapids, 106 inches in Holland and 94 in Muskegon.
• Matt Kirkwood predicts: 95 inches in Kalamazoo, 94 in Grand Rapids, 112 inches in Holland and 103 in Muskegon.
• Terri DeBoer predicts: 82 inches in Kalamazoo, 85 in Grand Rapids 98 inches in Holland and 105 in Muskegon.
• Bill Steffen predicts: 83 inches in Kalamazoo, 81 inches in Grand Rapids, 105 inches in Holland and 88 in Muskegon.
• For what it is worth (remember I don’t get paid for this) my guess is 75” at Kalamazoo, 70” at Grand Rapids, 85” at Holland and 80” at Muskegon. Also in the past a cold and snowy mid November has led to very little snow or a green Christmas and that is what my guess is that Grand Rapids will have very little or no snow on the ground on Christmas 2019. Remember all of the above is just a guess.

Here is WOOD’s posted guess for the winter of 2018/20

 

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/storm-team-8-winter-outlook-2019-2020/

 

Thanks for sharing that. How was Christmas of these years?: 1989, 1951, 1911, 1880, 1842?  (I think they all had sig. snowfall in mid-Nov)

[westMJim]

Thanks for sharing that. How was Christmas of these years?: 1989, 1951, 1911, 1880, 1842?  (I think they all had sig. snowfall in mid-Nov)

Here are some of the snowiest November’s at Grand Rapids with that Novembers snow fall and the snow on the ground at that Christmas. 2014 November 31.0” Christmas 0” 1951 26.9” Christmas 22.0” 1991 November 25.3” Christmas T. 2000 November 23.0” Christmas 16”. 1995 November 20.9” Christmas 1”.  1989 19.5” Christmas 5”. 1955 November 18.6” Christmas 0” 1998 November 18.5” Christmas 2” That was the most on the ground that December. 2005 November 17.3” Christmas 0. 1940 November 17.3” Christmas 0” as for 1911 that year was way down on the snow fall list with just 6.2 and Christmas T. The records do not go back to 1880 at Grand Rapids But at Lansing 1880 November 16” Note the mean at Lansing that November was just 27.3° The year there was no snow reported on Christmas. As for 1842 there are no records that go back that far. 

[Tom]

North America continues to show impressive growth in the snow dept as it is near decadal highs....

 

 

 

 

 

 

On par with North America, we have the entire Northern Hemisphere also on track with AN snow mass...#letitsnow

 

[Tom]

The latest JAMSTEC has come in with another impressive run for the Winter season and showing widespread cold.  For the 3rd run in a row, nearly everyone east of the Rockies is BN temp wise along with a ribbon of AN precip up from the S Plains/MW/GL's/OHV.  This overall outlook looks rather similar to what has transpired over the past several weeks.

 

 

As far as the ENSO forecast, it is suggesting a relaxation in the warming and heading towards a neutral Winter but with a Modoki flavor.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Here are some of the snowiest November’s at Grand Rapids with that Novembers snow fall and the snow on the ground at that Christmas. 2014 November 31.0” Christmas 0” 1951 26.9” Christmas 22.0” 1991 November 25.3” Christmas T. 2000 November 23.0” Christmas 16”. 1995 November 20.9” Christmas 1”.  1989 19.5” Christmas 5”. 1955 November 18.6” Christmas 0” 1998 November 18.5” Christmas 2” That was the most on the ground that December. 2005 November 17.3” Christmas 0. 1940 November 17.3” Christmas 0” as for 1911 that year was way down on the snow fall list with just 6.2 and Christmas T. The records do not go back to 1880 at Grand Rapids But at Lansing 1880 November 16” Note the mean at Lansing that November was just 27.3° The year there was no snow reported on Christmas. As for 1842 there are no records that go back that far. 

 

Snow at Christmas proper is very very fickle, nonetheless there are a couple gems among all those other rocks. Even in recent very snowy winters (07-08, 08-09, 13-14) the actual snow waned on or about Christmas. Thus, whether GR or BC or wherever has a decent amount of snow OTG right on Christmas is a fairly poor indicator of winter in general. Thanks for digging into that! 

[jaster220]

North America continues to show impressive growth in the snow dept as it is near decadal highs....

 

 

 

 

 

 

On par with North America, we have the entire Northern Hemisphere also on track with AN snow mass...#letitsnow

 

 

Top graph you can clearly see we're chasing 2014 (Nov) and 2013 (Dec). Has to put a smile on the face of those riding the analogs. 

[westMJim]

Here is Brett Anderson’s from Accuweather  take on the extended period from November 25th to December 15th 

“Western ridge and eastern trough scenario will likely persist into next week across North America, but the direct connection to the Arctic will begin to be cut off as more of the air will be originating from northwestern Canada and the northern Pacific, so it will not be as cold in the eastern half of the nation.

Farther down the road, there are indications that a fairly strong +NAO will begin to take hold late this month and into the first week or two of December. This type of pattern tends to lock up the Arctic air across the far northern and northeastern Canada while milder Pacific air dominates southern Canada and the northern United States with brief shots of colder air. Storms and fronts should move along in this type of pattern with less upstream blocking.”

On his maps the period from November 25th to December 8th or so he hints at being near average in both temperatures and precipitation and then east coast warmth with our area wetter than average the week of December 9th to the 15th 

[jaster220]

In case you weren't able to read that historical cold wave link I posted, I found his comment at the end interesting.

 

Yes; I know the Winter Outlook seems overdue now that we got clobbered by snow and now cold. I look to release it within the next week (which is generally the time-frame). One of the most gratifying results found thus far in the analogues was the amount of snowy and cold Novembers -right on cue!

[Tom]

The IRI-multi model ensemble's Winter forecast below...

 

 

 

 

Mid/Late Winter....

 

 

 

[Tom]

It seems like it was ages ago when I commented on the GEFS suggesting a minor SSW event to begin across Siberia/Eurasia around the 11/22 time frame.  As we approach this period, the model had the right idea and held steadfast, in fact, it looks to be growing even stronger as we close out the month and leading us into December.  I now strongly believe we are about to see something that rarely happens this early in the season as a potential major disruption of the Polar Vortex should occur as we flip the calendar into met Winter. 

 

You guys know I always find it rather peculiar when nature lines up to specific dates on the calendar and wouldn't ya know it, as we enter December, there are growing signs that the Polar Vortex will be displaced off the Pole as a potentially strong SSW will be taking place.  Both ensemble and individual op runs are painting a clear signal that the Strat is going to warm significantly in the same regions of Siberia where they have been occurring of late.

 

 

 

 

 

For weeks now, the CFS model has been suggesting this same pattern at 10mb for the month of December, which is a lot different than last December and previous warm December's.  It's good news for us snow lovers and winter wx enthusiasts as it will drive a favorable pattern to keep colder air in toe.  Not to mention, but blocking in the high lats will also favor a colder pattern over the eastern CONUS. 

 

In terms of the pattern for December, I'm fully anticipating an active PAC jet along with a Split Flow over western North America keeping an active pattern over our central/eastern Sub.  While the colder anomalies may relax a bit over the next couple of weeks after extreme temp departures during the first couple of weeks in November, average temps are dropping so any BN anomalies will be progressively colder down the road.

 

The last 20 runs off the CFS model at 10mb...do you think it had the right idea????

 

 

Lastly, the MJO will be stalling out in Phases 1/2 over the next 2 weeks which are very favorable phases for sustained cold over the CONUS.  Do you think it's cycling???  The JMA Weeklies from a couple days ago lock in these same phases over the next 4 weeks.  Winter is here to stay....the writing is on the wall...this is how a Legendary season is born...stay thirsty my friends!  

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

[westMJim]

Here is the latest update from Paul Pastelok who is the long range guesser at Accuweather. I only put up the part of his guess for our area. And broke it down the way he has it broken down.

December to February Highlights

“Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley - It will be a stormy pattern with cold periods. There will be the risk for early cold periods by back door fronts in the Northeast, but overall it will still be more back and forth. December and February can be colder than 2019. The storm track will be shifty, mainly Gulf to interior Northeast; potential slow start to ski season for the mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians, but near normal for the Northeast. Heaviest snow events are more likely middle to late winter, but there will be some storms early in the season as well with some impacts; above-normal water temperatures may lead to storm intensification. Lake-effect moderate to heavy at times this season (moderate confidence).”

“Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, central/northern Plains - It will turn frigid with higher energy demand midseason especially; December back and forth, Arctic cold shots more frequent second half, which can result in a frigid outcome (less snowpack, January is not as cold). There will be a slight shift in core of cold to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes in February; snowfall will be below normal for the northern Plains and near to above elsewhere (moderate confidence).”

December

“Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – The snowpack increase in eastern Canada during November may lead to lower temperatures in parts of New England and upstate New York. Back-and-forth cold and mild periods throughout the month. Active storm track, wet, snow and ice; possible storm week two, lake-effect snow occasionally heavy, potential snow for central/southern Appalachians, similar, but not as heavy, as 2018 (moderate to high confidence)”

“Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, central/northern Plains – The main precipitation area will be in the East, which still favors above-normal temperatures though back-and-forth periods of cold and mild weather; there will be the strong polar vortex and the frequency will be down on Arctic blasts. With a more frequent southern storm track, south and east areas of region will be at higher risk for snow or rain (low to moderate confidence).”

January

“Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley - We are anticipating a mean storm track through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, but it will still be shifty. Some snow events will occur in the Northeast, but more mixed or rain events mid-Atlantic. The coldest air will be in northern Northeast,

western areas of region, but more back and forth keeps averages near normal rest of the region, above in the lower mid-Atlantic; big lake events on occasion, especially western areas (moderate confidence).”

“Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, central/northern Plains - There will be more extremes for this part of the nation. Arctic air may plunge at times in the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes, with blocking over northern Canada and Alaska. A couple of big snow events will occur in the Midwest with upslope snow High Plains/Front Range of Rockies. There will be lake-effect snow at a premium combined with snow-producing storms (moderate confidence)”

February

“Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley - Cold and stormy; worst of the cold can be over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley greatly impacted by above-normal snowpack and Great Lakes ice; potential nor’easter wind and coastal impacts (moderate confidence).”

“Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, central/northern Plains - Weak ENSO can lead to split flow, two storm tracks, one heads for the Southeast and a northern clipper-style setup with frequent light snow events; Arctic air may hit eastern areas more often compared to 2019. High Plain’s temperatures can be 6-10 degrees higher than 2019 frigid pattern, less heating demand western areas (moderate confidence).”

 

This guess might change as we get deeper into the winter season and if that happens I will toss that up. Also I will make a copy of this and we will see how this turns out come March

[Clinton]

From the NWS KC cool statss

 

More

Halfway through the month this is the 7th coldest Nov. on 132-year record for KC. When you factor in Oct. as well, 37 of the last 46 days have been at or below normal. That will make the near to slightly above normal temps through the middle of next week very welcome! #FrigidFall

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Mo

[jaster220]

A graphical representation of the amazing October N HEMI snow cover/expansion that just exploded! 

 

[Niko]

A graphical representation of the amazing October N HEMI snow cover/expansion that just exploded! 

 

20191116 Oct Snow Departures NHEMI.GIF

Impressive graph

[westMJim]

Here are some snow fall totals from around the state of Michigan 6.8″  Grand Rapids and Lansing, 7.1″ at Kalamazoo.  10.9″ at Muskegon. About 10 miles south of Grand Marais in the U.P. where they had had 52″ of snow already.

Other locations Scottville 21.2″, Hart 16.8″, Bloomingdale 15.5″, Fremont 12.0″, Flint 9.8”, Detroit 9.5”, Hastings 7.3″, ‘Alma 6.8″, Eaton Rapids 6.8″, Grand Ledge 6.8″, Saginaw 6.6”, Augusta 6.5″, Lowell 4.9″, Charlotte 4.0″, Baldwin 3.7″, Big Rapids 2.2″.

Northern Michigan Season Snowfall: Paradise  49.0″, NW Research Farm 40.0″, Maple City 37.3″, Kalkaska 26.9″, Northport 24.8″, Gaylord 21.2″, Wellston  20.8″, Beulah 20.7″, Traverse City 19.5″, E. Jordan 18.8″ Fife Lake 18.4″, S. Ste. Marie 17.1″, Cadillac 15.0″, Harrisville 14.4″, Petoskey 12.6″, Houghton Lake 12.2″, Lake City 11.4″, Mio 10.8″. Charlevoix 9.5″, Alpena 8.5″, St. Ignace 8.5″, Glennie 7.2″, Gladwin 6.5″, Atlanta 6.5″, E. Tawas 6.0″.

[Mi_Matthew]

Bill Deedler released his winter outlook for SE Michigan.

 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/?m=1

[jaster220]

Bill Deedler released his winter outlook for SE Michigan.

 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/?m=1

 

All you need to know, right here:

 

Unlike last winter; this year’s set of analogues and storm tracks suggest a wetter and snowier winter across Southeast Lower Michigan. The majority of patterns that evolved in the analogue winters were both front and back-end loaded winters with a notable break or two in between (the preferred).

[westMJim]

Bill Deedler released his winter outlook for SE Michigan.

 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/?m=1

Thanks for the link 

[Mi_Matthew]

Thanks for the link

You're welcome. I've always enjoyed reading his seasonal outlooks/recaps. I met him a few times at the White Lake NWS office several years ago while on an unpaid summer internship. Good guy.

[jaster220]

You're welcome. I've always enjoyed reading his seasonal outlooks/recaps. I met him a few times at the White Lake NWS office several years ago while on an unpaid summer internship. Good guy.

 

Me too, and have a printed collection of his historical storm/event write-ups from his earlier days. This is one of his best seasonal outlooks I can remember, covers a lot of facets with very professional graphics! There are a bunch of notable "winters of yore" for cold waves and/or snowfall included in his analog list. Interestingly tho, none of the "blob" winters that others like so much for this winter. '78-79 is in there tho, which wasn't stellar for Detroit proper but anybody in WMI should be smiling at that one. 

 

Another cool thing is his storm tracks map. Did a blow-up to high-light the fact that 4 out of 5 tracks impact the Mitt, so other's calls for a lot of action here in The Lakes aligns very well. 

 

Hard not to be pumped for this:

 

[Tom]

The Weather Network has issued their Canadian Winter forecast which suggests a similar tune that has been advertised by many outlets thus far this Autumn.  The consistency among the various forecasts is raising confidence that this will be an extraordinary Winter across most of the N Sub, but especially in and around the GL's/MW region.

 

Hunker down my friends...this Winter will have Long Legs....#SolarMin  #IceAgeWinter

 

 

 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/videos/gallery/winter-forecast-national-outlook-our-experts-breakdown-20192020/sharevideo/6104504217001/forecasts

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITwiCwuki3M

[Clinton]

@ Tom do you think next week is a continuation of cycle 1 with another active week of weather?

[Tom]

@ Tom do you think next week is a continuation of cycle 1 with another active week of weather?

I'd like to see how next week plays out before I jump to any conclusions.  Too many variables at play here with significant warming in the Strat that is poised to transpire next week along with a  tanking SOI.  The Strat warming wrecks havoc in the modeling from past experience.  With that being said, the pattern is ripe for cutters and that will be a common theme as we head into Dec from what I'm seeing over the next several weeks.  Are we going to see hard cutters to close out November??  We very well could and that may be just another example of how nature this season has literally answered and filled in the "snow holes" where they have appeared and clearly the Upper MW is lacking in the snow dept and parts of the southern Canadian Prairies.  In all honesty, if we have to sacrifice a couple storms that cut NW and lay down the snow to the north, I'm fine with it, I really am bc I know whole hardheartedly whats in store down the road. 

 

 

BTW, how did the EPS snow mean look???  Does it show a similar tune compared to the GEFS???

[Clinton]

I'd like to see how next week plays out before I jump to any conclusions.  Too many variables at play here with significant warming in the Strat that is poised to transpire next week along with a  tanking SOI.  The Strat warming wrecks havoc in the modeling from past experience.  With that being said, the pattern is ripe for cutters and that will be a common theme as we head into Dec from what I'm seeing over the next several weeks.  Are we going to see hard cutters to close out November??  We very well could and that may be just another example of how nature this season has literally answered and filled in the "snow holes" where they have appeared and clearly the Upper MW is lacking in the snow dept and parts of the southern Canadian Prairies.  In all honesty, if we have to sacrifice a couple storms that cut NW and lay down the snow to the north, I'm fine with it, I really am bc I know whole hardheartedly whats in store down the road. 

 

 

BTW, how did the EPS snow mean look???  Does it show a similar tune compared to the GEFS???

Here is the Euro mean.  IT is more bullish than the GEFS

[Clinton]

Here is the ensemble members

[Tom]

Here is the ensemble members

 

 

Umm..ya, there is going to be a Glacier building over the next couple weeks.  Thanks for posting.

[jaster220]

Umm..ya, there is going to be a Glacier building over the next couple weeks.  Thanks for posting.

 

I thought there was going to be more Greenland Blocking going forward to begin to track these systems more W to E. Now we're talking at least 3 weeks of hard cutters? That doesn't sound right if indeed that blocking you showed is legit. What'd I miss here, lol?

[Tom]

I thought there was going to be more Greenland Blocking going forward to begin to track these systems more W to E. Now we're talking at least 3 weeks of hard cutters? That doesn't sound right if indeed that blocking you showed is legit. What'd I miss here, lol?

I did not say 3 weeks of hard cutters, maybe you misinterpreted what I said regarding missing a couple storms to our NW in November. Once in December, we look a lot better.

[Niko]

I thought there was going to be more Greenland Blocking going forward to begin to track these systems more W to E. Now we're talking at least 3 weeks of hard cutters? That doesn't sound right if indeed that blocking you showed is legit. What'd I miss here, lol?

December looks awesome..hang in there buddy.....

 

Also, keep an eye on the TG storm. White Turkey Day???!!!

[jaster220]

I did not say 3 weeks of hard cutters, maybe you misinterpreted what I said regarding missing a couple storms to our NW in November. Once in December, we look a lot better.

 

  yep! Think I was speed reading and my brain melded "cutters into December" and "hard cutters" into the same statement. Glad to know I was wrong, but it will be nice if we can see some blocking influence. Just enough will do as we open December holiday season! 

[Mi_Matthew]

Tom, I'll pose this question to you and hopefully Dr. Cohen will elaborate upon this in his next update, but given that Eurasian snow cover is running fairly normal and NA snow cover likely near normal after recent/near term melting, I am wondering what would be behind the major SSW event being modeled so early in the season?

 

Granted, if the SSW doesn't occur this is all a moot point, but I can see major implications across both sides of the globe as warm and cold "slosh" across the pole back and forth, possibly in greater amplitudes as the season progresses. If the SSW does occur without the anomalous snowcover present, I think it only adds more evidence to what will be an exceptional winter.

[Andie]

I always know autumn and winter are truly here in North Texas when the 2 oaks behind me turn yellow and red.

 

High of 74* today. Humidity rising.

 

Tomorrow's High 54* Rain beginning tonight ~7pm and continuing through Friday.

 

It's looking like Thanksgiving!

 

[Tom]

Tom, I'll pose this question to you and hopefully Dr. Cohen will elaborate upon this in his next update, but given that Eurasian snow cover is running fairly normal and NA snow cover likely near normal after recent/near term melting, I am wondering what would be behind the major SSW event being modeled so early in the season?

 

Granted, if the SSW doesn't occur this is all a moot point, but I can see major implications across both sides of the globe as warm and cold "slosh" across the pole back and forth, possibly in greater amplitudes as the season progresses. If the SSW does occur without the anomalous snowcover present, I think it only adds more evidence to what will be an exceptional winter.

Judah Cohen explained a lot of this in his blog earlier this week: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Overall, the Snow Advance Index (SAI) was above normal and thus he's predicting a rather impressive Winter, although, he is expecting a Slow start and a warm December (I do not).  Normally, an early disruption of the PV results in warmer temps across the mid latitudes but this season based on my knowledge of the LRC I don't see that happening in December.  The worst of Winter comes Jan/Feb when the heart of winter usually occurs.  However, I'm expecting severe winter conditions to start by mid December due to other variables/patterns Judah may or may not know of.

 

One of the main reasons why I believe there will be an early disruption of the PV this year is bc of Low Solar.  You can also make an argument that low sea ice in both the N PAC side (Bearing Sea) and on the other side of the Pole near Barants-Kara sea attribute to Poleward heat transport that disturbs/disrupts the PV.  There are a lot of moving parts this year and a fascinating situation if your a fan of winter weather.

[Mi_Matthew]

Judah Cohen explained a lot of this in his blog earlier this week: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Overall, the Snow Advance Index (SAI) was above normal and thus he's predicting a rather impressive Winter, although, he is expecting a Slow start and a warm December (I do not). Normally, an early disruption of the PV results in warmer temps across the mid latitudes but this season based on my knowledge of the LRC I don't see that happening in December. The worst of Winter comes Jan/Feb when the heart of winter usually occurs. However, I'm expecting severe winter conditions to start by mid December due to other variables/patterns Judah may or may not know of.

 

One of the main reasons why I believe there will be an early disruption of the PV this year is bc of Low Solar. You can also make an argument that low sea ice in both the N PAC side (Bearing Sea) and on the other side of the Pole near Barants-Kara sea attribute to Poleward heat transport that disturbs/disrupts the PV. There are a lot of moving parts this year and a fascinating situation if your a fan of winter weather.

Ok, I do remember reading about the possibility of sea ice extent being a culprit now that you mention it. And yes, I'm a huge fan of winter weather! Thanks again!

[Andie]

Started raining exactly at 7pm.

 

Amazing. Could set my watch on that forecast.

 

Sitting at 60*. Overcast. Low of 56*. .....and rain

[Niko]

Started raining exactly at 7pm.

 

Amazing. Could set my watch on that forecast.

 

Sitting at 60*. Overcast. Low of 56*. .....and rain

Nice N balmy!

[Niko]

I always know autumn and winter are truly here in North Texas when the 2 oaks behind me turn yellow and red.

 

High of 74* today. Humidity rising.

 

Tomorrow's High 54* Rain beginning tonight ~7pm and continuing through Friday.

 

It's looking like Thanksgiving!

 

IMG_4024.PNG

Nice area. Also, I like those houses in the far distance.

[jaster220]

Judah Cohen explained a lot of this in his blog earlier this week: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Overall, the Snow Advance Index (SAI) was above normal and thus he's predicting a rather impressive Winter, although, he is expecting a Slow start and a warm December (I do not).  Normally, an early disruption of the PV results in warmer temps across the mid latitudes but this season based on my knowledge of the LRC I don't see that happening in December.  The worst of Winter comes Jan/Feb when the heart of winter usually occurs.  However, I'm expecting severe winter conditions to start by mid December due to other variables/patterns Judah may or may not know of.

 

One of the main reasons why I believe there will be an early disruption of the PV this year is bc of Low Solar.  You can also make an argument that low sea ice in both the N PAC side (Bearing Sea) and on the other side of the Pole near Barants-Kara sea attribute to Poleward heat transport that disturbs/disrupts the PV.  There are a lot of moving parts this year and a fascinating situation if your a fan of winter weather.

 

Interesting that almost all of Deedler's 15 analog seasons featured cold and snowy Novembers. The Vet's Day storm gave him a huge confidence boost in his choices ofc. He noted that the list was heavy with long winters which were both front AND back loaded. Dec went either way after the cold start, and if there was one warmer month that was the one. He likes Feb-April as cold and above avg snows. Consider he's got both 1880-81 and 1978-79 should support what you're thinking Tom. Something could always go wrong ofc, but if not the potential could be off the charts! His sub-set of La Nada to weak Nino analogs also displaced the typical AN moisture swath further north into the OHV. Fascinating stuff for sure unfolding. My fascination with winter 1842-43 around the Midwest/Lakes has led me to find a few tid-bits and some felt that was due to a possible volcano shielding of the sun. I'm wondering if the low solar could be providing the back-drop with a similar outcome looming?

[Clinton]

Euro showing a big storm on Dec 1st

[Tom]

Euro showing a big storm on Dec 1st

 

As I've said many times, I love it when nature lines up storms and/or wx related events on certain calendar dates.  It would be fitting to have a major storm to open up the month, for which, I believe will be a "December to Remember" for many reasons.