2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[MIKEKC]

Tom, with what you know, can you give a calendar look to when/where storms will be the entire winter so we can check the LRC for accuracy?

 

The coldest periods when and where

Warmer periods when and where

[jaster220]

From OHweather after a post that this stretch feels like deja-vu from last year. 

 

Last winter was better than average for a majority of the sub, so a repeat wouldn’t be the worst, but the pattern should feature more blocking this winter so those on the southern and eastern fringes that didn’t do as well as everyone else last winter may make up for it this year. Most places are already off to a decent start with no signs of any prolonged snowless/warm patterns through mid-December. 

 

Pretty good take imho

[jaster220]

Should be interesting to see where this leads..

 

 

[Tom]

The CFSv2 has been trending much colder for December in recent days.  The culprit...Strat Warming and the every growing "warm blob" in the NE PAC....

 

 

 

 

Check out how wet the CONUS is becoming....Coast-to-Coast storminess....boy, "December to Remember" is shaping up if these trends hold.  For once, in a very long time, we are going to enjoy an old fashion start to the Winter season and throughout the Holidays!

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

It seems like the CFS default is nationwide blowtorch... and then it tries to see reality by the end of the month.

[jaster220]

It seems like the CFS default is nationwide blowtorch... and then it tries to see reality by the end of the month.

 

yeah, no sh*t! It's beyond obviously ridiculously horribly biased in that regard. 

[Tom]

It's interesting to see NOAA has changed its tune for their DJF forecast and overall suggesting a "troughy" look for the Winter season...much more wet/active overall across our Sub.  Certainly has that big potential to become a tremendous year for a lot of us on here.

 

 

[Tom]

What in store farther down the road??? More of the same and as we get deeper into the cold season, the cold will push and have more staying power, esp in and around the MW/Upper MW/GL's region. These trends are eye popping, esp the active pattern which we now know is clearly developing across the majority of our Sub. This has all the characteristics of becoming a "Legendary" winter my friends. I hope to see many of us enjoying "Winter's Wrath" in the days, weeks and months ahead.

[jaster220]

      @ NOAA Maps Tom. Thx for keeping up on those. Are they updated once a month? Actually have us with the coveted "wet+cold" combo rarely seen in a winter 3-month outlook (JFM). Looks like we have to get thru the warmth of Dec tho before the real action returns around here. 

[Tom]

@ NOAA Maps Tom. Thx for keeping up on those. Are they updated once a month? Actually have us with the coveted "wet+cold" combo rarely seen in a winter 3-month outlook (JFM). Looks like we have to get thru the warmth of Dec tho before the real action returns around here.

Yes, they update once per month on every 3rd Thursday of the month. I agree, December may end up being a more volatile month out of the 3 met months this winter. I think our region avoids any warmth that’ll try to move in andprimarily stay farther west/south.

[Niko]

      @ NOAA Maps Tom. Thx for keeping up on those. Are they updated once a month? Actually have us with the coveted "wet+cold" combo rarely seen in a winter 3-month outlook (JFM). Looks like we have to get thru the warmth of Dec tho before the real action returns around here. 

NOAA must be on crack to see them post the opposite of what they usually post.....Whaa!!!

[jaster220]

Yes, they update once per month on every 3rd Thursday of the month. I agree, December may end up being a more volatile month out of the 3 met months this winter. I think our region avoids any warmth that’ll try to move in and primarily stay farther west/south.

 

Let's hope so. Would be nice to get a few inches of white to go along with the season's lights and decorations. Need cold temps to keep it around for more than a day or 2. One thing, the soil temps have certainly lowered in the last 2 wks. Even saw a pond still ice-covered despite our 50's and rain this week. Yesterday, there was still a tiny pile of snow on my front lawn near the street. That high-moisture stuff has staying power, thus why I prefer it over the LES. 

[jaster220]

NOAA must be on crack to see them post the opposite of what they usually post.....Whaa!!!

 

HAS to be historic in the offing in order to get them there. They totally blew our historic 2013-14

 

https://notrickszone.com/2014/02/08/another-failed-outlook-noaancep-totally-botch-2013-2014-winter-outlooks-for-usa-and-europe-exact-opposite-occurs/

[Andie]

What in store farther down the road??? More of the same and as we get deeper into the cold season, the cold will push and have more staying power, esp in and around the MW/Upper MW/GL's region. These trends are eye popping, esp the active pattern which we now know is clearly developing across the majority of our Sub. This has all the characteristics of becoming a "Legendary" winter my friends. I hope to see many of us enjoying "Winter's Wrath" in the days, weeks and months ahead.

Looks like Okwx and I will be able to phone ours in once a month. Talk about dull. I was hoping for some rain at least.

[Niko]

HAS to be historic in the offing in order to get them there. They totally blew our historic 2013-14

 

https://notrickszone.com/2014/02/08/another-failed-outlook-noaancep-totally-botch-2013-2014-winter-outlooks-for-usa-and-europe-exact-opposite-occurs/

Exactly..how pathetic of them

 

Man, I would fire so many employees there...tough cookie to have as a boss

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like Okwx and I will be able to phone ours in once a month. Talk about dull. I was hoping for some rain at least.

Starting to think that's the case for the time being. Looking to punt any snow chances til after December 15th at this point.

[Niko]

[Hawkeye]

That temp outlook suggests very little snow.

[Niko]

Looks like a huge ridge just to our west.

[Andie]

So, no matter what..........Everyone have a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend!

 

Enjoy food and family, or snooze, or both.

 

North Texas will be dealing with a rainy holiday. High tomorrow in the 40's. Rain.

Wish it would have waited a day, but you snow lovers should be happy.

[jaster220]

/\ Thx and same to you! 

[Tom]

The evolution of the N PAC SST's and along the equatorial PAC have generally been on target to where the models have been predicting it to be.  Overall, the N PAC is lining up quite well as the colder waters are building NW of Hawaii and the warm Blob is tucked right into the corner of the NE PAC. 

 

Here are the last 4 weeks starting from Oct 29th....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The other important configuration of colder waters continuing to surround Australia and the pocket of cold waters in the Indian Ocean are certainly contributing to the MJO Phases.  The latest JMA weeklies continue to show sinking air across Australia which suggests the MJO should favor the colder phases in December.  The battle among the climate models is quite interesting to say the least...who will win???

 

 

[Niko]

Cant believe Meteorological Winter starts in 3 days.

[jaster220]

At Tom

 

Isn't this coast-to-coast storm fascinating? Did you have this as fitting into the LRC? Are you  thinking what I'm thinking, that this could well repeat during JFM but seasonally adjusted right thru this region?

 

[Madtown]

can anyone give me an idea on Feb 1st through 6 with the LCR? Thanks in advance!!!

[Niko]

[jaster220]

 

Good old Accuwx. All focused on the Northeast, as if there won't be storms elsewhere across the CONUS. 

[Niko]

Good old Accuwx. All focused on the Northeast, as if there won't be storms elsewhere across the CONUS. 

[Tom]

At Tom

 

Isn't this coast-to-coast storm fascinating? Did you have this as fitting into the LRC? Are you  thinking what I'm thinking, that this could well repeat during JFM but seasonally adjusted right thru this region?

 

20191128 JFM Snowstorm path.JPG

Once we get past a volatile month of December, the adjusted map you posted above is the vision I have in mind.  I think we will be generally be dealing with a slight component of a SER.  It has been showing up numerous times since the LRC has developed but it hasn't been as strong as last year's SER.  This year, there has also been a ridge that forms coming up from the GOM that can lead to many cutters and could deflect storms farther north.  It's something to keep in mind bc if there isn't as much blocking down the road bc then our members to our north will see more snow. 

 

For instance, here is today's 500mb map that shows the big ridge over the GOM...the lack of a -AO and stronger west based -NAO killed our chances for the storm this weekend to shift south.  On the other hand, there are many other opportunities in the overall pattern that favor our region and that's when I expect us to score Bigly.  I'm still trying to pin down this year's LRC cycle length and honestly, this has been one of the more challenging seasons to iron down a cycle length.  I'll definitely need more time to figure this out.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Regarding my post above, I made a comment about the ridge located across the GOM, interestingly, after reading this mornings blog by Gary Lezak, I think he's seeing what I was referring to.  Mind you, his blog was written after my comment so it seems to me we are on the same "wave length".  I think he's also having to dive deeper into this pattern before nailing it down.

 

 

 

Let’s see how this sets up, and then as it zips by, the storm moves northeast, and then turns southeast.  This part of the pattern seems to have a disturbing ridge in the long wave features causing the storm to turn, sort of showing a feature that I am trying to figure out for the LRC.

 

With that in mind, Judah Cohen has issued his AER Winter Forecast and it highlights the N Plains/Upper MW/GL's as the coldest parts of the CONUS.

 

 

 

The AER winter forecast is shown below in Figure i.  The region with the highest probability of observing below normal temperatures is Siberia and bleeding into East Asia consistent with the above normal snow cover extent observed in Siberia this past October.  The other region that has a higher probability of experiencing below normal temperatures is  central and eastern North America especially Central Canada and the Great Lakes region.  In Europe the region with the best chance of experiencing below normal temperatures is Scandinavia.  Most other regions have a better chance of experiencing normal to above normal temperatures this winter according to the model.

 

 

[Clinton]

I can't pin down the cycle length to this years LRC, seems to be above my pay grade lol. Gary seems to hint at it being between 55 and 60 days.

[Niko]

[jaster220]

LOL. Wasn't their map cool for us just 2 days ago?? Oh well, fooled by the SSW trickery!

[Niko]

LOL. Wasn't their map cool for us just 2 days ago?? Oh well, fooled by the SSW trickery!

 

It was fun while it lasted. Knew it was too good to be true by NOAA

[jaster220]

Rumor is WxBell has an updated winter outlook? I can't seem to find it via a general web search, just their prelim from Aug shows up. Is there anybody with a link to the updated version? Thx

[jaster220]

 

It was fun while it lasted. Knew it was too good to be true by NOAA

 

So, they have us solidly BN first half of the month but maintain the torchy look for the back half with the month ending AN. This hazards map says BN risk goes out to the 17th. So which is it NOAA??

 

[Clinton]

Rumor is WxBell has an updated winter outlook? I can't seem to find it via a general web search, just their prelim from Aug shows up. Is there anybody with a link to the updated version? Thx

Try this

https://www.weatherbell.com/late-october-winter-forecast-update

[Niko]

So, they have us solidly BN first half of the month but maintain the torchy look for the back half with the month ending AN. This hazards map says BN risk goes out to the 17th. So which is it NOAA??

 

20191203 hazards_d8_14_contours.png

[jaster220]

Try this

https://www.weatherbell.com/late-october-winter-forecast-update

 

Thx amigo!  That's a nice read. Per the rumor tho, it sounded like they updated again just recently calling for a colder December as one key change. 

[Tom]

Euro seasonal has a great looking temp pattern for the month of January....slight SER???